A second shortcoming of
relative valuation metrics is the benchmark that is used, typically the metric's long - term historical average.
The relative valuation metrics, such as market cap / GDP, CAPE, Tobin's Q, and Hussman's PE which need to be added to dividend yield and growth to capture total return, generate forecasts that are less optimistic.
Not exact matches
Stocks trade at a high
valuation on most
metrics including
relative to history,
relative to interest rates, and
relative to inflation.
One popular
valuation metric, the Equity Risk Premium (ERP), can be useful in assessing both
relative returns and the right mix of stocks versus bonds.
Estimating future surplus starts with current
metrics like earnings or cash flow, so using the most recent financial information against the market
valuation is a good indicator of the
relative cheapness of a stock.
One of the great anomalies of investing: The historical long - term outperformance of certain smart beta or factor - based strategies
relative to the broader equity market (think choosing stocks based on their
valuations, momentum, low volatility or quality
metrics such as profitability).
Knowing how stocks are priced historically
relative to some
metric like earnings or cash flows is far more instructive than knowing whether stocks are at an all time high or not (we've addressed the predictive utility of stock
valuations in several posts, including here and here).
A
valuation metric for determining the
relative trade - off between the price of a stock, earnings generated per share (EPS), dividend yield and the company's expected growth.
Greenblatt discusses his firm's disciplined
valuation process that uses both absolute and
relative value
metrics to rank... Read More
I have dabbled in quantitative factor models in the past, and normally I start with an index, group by sector, and then compare each company
relative to its sector (I use
valuation metrics, liquidity, technical factors such as
relative strength and price
relative to moving averages, earnings volatility, earnings estimates revisions, balance sheet
metrics, beta, and a proprietary risk / reward
metric).
A leading academic, Robert Shiller of Yale, has, however created a
metric to measure the
relative valuation of the market — the CAPE — cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio.
In the video I will take a look at Lowe's
valuation relative to several important fundamental
metrics.
The choice of CAPE is not without its critics, who are quick to point out that changes in accounting rules and changes to the CPI calculation, along with the timing and benchmark issues inherent in
relative valuation measures make CAPE an unreliable
metric.
This might arise from another stock specific,
relative or an absolute
valuation metric / approach they've chosen.