Sentences with phrase «reliability of their model projections»

This was one of the earliest transient climate model experiments and so rightly gets a fair bit of attention when the reliability of model projections are discussed.

Not exact matches

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.

A number of different observationally based metrics have been used to weight the reliability of contributing models when making probabilistic projections (see Section 10.5.4).

For going on two years now, I've been trying to publish a manuscript that critically assesses the reliability of climate model projections.

The fact that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean accurately represents observed global OHC changes [Cheng et al., 2016] is critical for establishing the reliability of climate models for long - term climate change projections.

Here we assess the reliability of AW in the 21st century climate projections by 20 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Moral: The reliability of computer model projections are inversely proportional to a.) political pressure and b.) number of adjustable variables.

It's me needing a better understanding of hindcasting, but I see that as taking a model that we point towards the future and use the results from the same model by pointing it back in history (where we have observable evidence) and use the quality of hindcasting results to support the presumed reliability for the forward projections.

[55] According to the World Climate Report, «Dr. MIchaels» general message was that the recent behavior of global temperatures is starting to push the (lower) bounds of climate models» expectations of such behavior and that if the current slowdown in the rate of global warming continues for much longer, we must start to question the reliability of climate projections of the future state of our climate.»

Such solecisms throughout the IPCC's assessment reports (including the insertion, after the scientists had completed their final draft, of a table in which four decimal points had been right - shifted so as to multiply tenfold the observed contribution of ice - sheets and glaciers to sea - level rise), combined with a heavy reliance upon computer models unskilled even in short - term projection, with initial values of key variables unmeasurable and unknown, with advancement of multiple, untestable, non-Popper-falsifiable theories, with a quantitative assignment of unduly high statistical confidence levels to non-quantitative statements that are ineluctably subject to very large uncertainties, and, above all, with the now - prolonged failure of TS to rise as predicted (Figures 1, 2), raise questions about the reliability and hence policy - relevance of the IPCC's central projections.