The Science Media Centre soon followed with an attempt at «expert reaction to new
report on climate sensitivity published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation `.
See NIPCC
reports on Climate Sensitivity and CO2 Science.
Not exact matches
As the
Climate Science Special Report states, the magnitude of future climate change depends significantly on «remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth's climate to [greenhouse gas] emissions,»» White House spokesperson Raj Shah said Friday in a sta
Climate Science Special
Report states, the magnitude of future
climate change depends significantly on «remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth's climate to [greenhouse gas] emissions,»» White House spokesperson Raj Shah said Friday in a sta
climate change depends significantly
on «remaining uncertainty in the
sensitivity of Earth's
climate to [greenhouse gas] emissions,»» White House spokesperson Raj Shah said Friday in a sta
climate to [greenhouse gas] emissions,»» White House spokesperson Raj Shah said Friday in a statement.
A leaked draft copy of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's fifth assessment report (AR5) surfaced earlier this summer and triggered a small tempest among climate bloggers, scientists and skeptics over revelations that a key metric, called the «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised do
Climate Change's fifth assessment
report (AR5) surfaced earlier this summer and triggered a small tempest among
climate bloggers, scientists and skeptics over revelations that a key metric, called the «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised do
climate bloggers, scientists and skeptics over revelations that a key metric, called the «Equilibrium
Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised do
Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised downward.
On the face of it the range of the IPCC models is centrally within the A&H 90 % range, but visual inspection of Figure 1 suggests that A&H find that there is about a 45 % probability that
climate sensitivity is below the lower end of the range quoted by Meehl in August 2004 (Of course the IPCC draft
report, which I have not seen, may include models with lower
sensitivity than 2.6 ºC).
A 2015 USDA
report (Brown et al. 2015)
on how
climate affects agriculture delineates the
sensitivities of specialty crops to many
climate components (e.g., temperatures, atmospheric CO2 levels, water supply, cloud and light conditions, high winds and other extreme conditions).
But the Schmittner paper is only focused
on a global
climate sensitivity, and that's what they calculate and
report.
On a more serious note, the problem for journalists (if they know what they are doing) in
reporting a range of results for
climate sensitivity is that the low end is ho - hum, but the higher end is more interesting.
Do you think that in the same way that the Solanki et al paper
on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas of strong greenhouse warming in recent decades, this (the fact that
climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates of possible future actual temperature increases) should be clearly noted in media releases put out by scientists when
reporting climate sensitivity studies?
The most likely value of
climate sensitivity from the AR4 [the fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] was about 3 d
climate sensitivity from the AR4 [the fourth
report from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change] was about 3 d
Climate Change] was about 3 degrees.
Chief among
climate scientists critical of the high - sensitivity holdouts is James Annan, an experienced climate modeler based in Japan who contributed to the 2007 science report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
climate scientists critical of the high -
sensitivity holdouts is James Annan, an experienced
climate modeler based in Japan who contributed to the 2007 science report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
climate modeler based in Japan who contributed to the 2007 science
report from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Climate Change.
IPCC Working Group I — Workshop
on Climate Sensitivity, Workshop
Report École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France 26 — 29 July, 2004 pg 11
Since 1990, observed sea level has followed the uppermost uncertainty limit of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the highest emission scenario combined with the highest climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty&raqu
Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment
Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the highest emission scenario combined with the highest
climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty&raqu
climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty» (1).
The
report concludes that «even with low
climate sensitivity,
on this path, the 2 °C target will be passed shortly after mid-century.»
As we all now know, Marcel Crok and Nicholas Lewis have written a
report on the IPCC's treatment of
climate sensitivity, published by the GWPF.
Huybers (2010) went
on to say: «More recently
reported values of
climate sensitivity have not deviated substantially.
While we were all reading about
climate sensitivity yesterday, the Renewable Energy Foundation published a devastating
report by Gordon Hughes
on depreciation of wind turbines.
He suggested that one example of possible tuning is that «
reported values of
climate sensitivity are anchored near the 3 ± 1.5 °C range initially suggested by the ad hoc study group
on carbon dioxide and
climate (1979) and that these were not changed because of a lack of compelling reason to do so».
It simply raises serious doubts concerning CAGW based
on high
climate sensitivity (as outlined by IPCC in its AR4 and, more recently, AR5
reports).
In 2009, NOAA» State of the
Climate report said starting on page 22 that a 15 year pause would falsify the climate models, and thereby their predictions of things like sensi
Climate report said starting
on page 22 that a 15 year pause would falsify the
climate models, and thereby their predictions of things like sensi
climate models, and thereby their predictions of things like
sensitivity.
Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment
report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in
Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle var
Climate Projections of near - term
climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle var
climate show small
sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial
sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially
on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.
The three successive IPCC
reports (1991 [2], 1996, and 2001 [3]-RRB- concentrated therefore, in addition to estimates of equilibrium
sensitivity,
on estimates of
climate change over the 21st century, based
on several scenarios of CO2 increase over this time interval, and using up to 18 general circulation models (GCMs) in the fourth IPCC Assessment
Report (AR4)[4].
The original paper
reports a
climate sensitivity range with a lower 90 % CI boundary of 1.6 K, a median of 6.1 K, and a modal value of 2.1, putting it
on the higher side of
climate sensitivity estimates (Fig. 2 above).
I asked you yesterday whether you were aware that two of the
climate sensitivity PDFs in Figure 9.20 of the IPCC AR4 WG1
report were not in fact based
on a uniform prior in equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS or S), despite it being stated in Table 9.3 that they were so based.
Indeed, there are examples in IPCC
reports of willingness to acknowledge the importance of expert (subjective) judgment, if
on a limited basis (e.g., see discussions of
climate sensitivity, detection and attribution and
climate and weather extremes in WGI
report, assessment of response strategies in the WGII
report of AR4; see also Knutti and Hegerl (2008) for futher details
on the role of expert judgement in estimating
climate sensitivity).
In its 2013
report, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a likely range for climate sensitivity of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees C
Climate Change (IPCC) gave a likely range for
climate sensitivity of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees C
climate sensitivity of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius.
As Forster explains, the GWPF
report is placing all its eggs
on one basket when it comes to estimating
climate sensitivity.
Reported evaluations of
climate sensitivities have ranged from 0.5 K / doubling to > 5 K
on doubling CO2.
The US «special
report» focuses
on climate science talking points — surface temperature (instruments at 2m from the ground and ocean surface temperature), hydrology,
climate sensitivity, sea level rise, acidification, etc..
The IPCC
report acknowledges the scientific debate that continues over the issue of
climate sensitivity and the different results between models and analysis based
on observations.
How long will it take for the rest of the
climate science community to get
on board and recognize that CO2
climate sensitivity is much lower than the previously sanctioned «Official IPCC results» and
on which the EPA is unwisely basing (obsolete AR4
Report version) its CO2 emissions control regulations?
Design / methodology / approach: The analyses are based
on the IPCC's own
reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model - calculated temperatures and the warming effects of greenhouse gases based
on the critical studies of
climate sensitivity (CS).
This doesn't just raise issues for measuring and
reporting climate sensitivity, it extends
on into any decision theory that may depend upon it.
The Working Group III IPCC
report [
on mitigation which the Economist used in its most recent attempt to misinform
on climate sensitivity] is no where near final, the final draft has not even been produced yet.
Carbon Brief
reported that Ridley made a wide range of claims throughout, touching
on subjects from ocean acidification and
climate sensitivity through to energy subsidies and the «benefits» of global warming.
I believe the alternative assessment
report to AR5 should clearly differentiate
climate sensitivity estimates based
on these two approaches.
The SAP 3.1
report describes complex mathematical models used to simulate the Earth's
climate on some of the most powerful supercomputers, and assesses their ability to reproduce observed
climate features, and their
sensitivity to changes in conditions such as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.
Energy budget estimates of equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient
climate response (TCR) are derived based
on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Scientific
Report (AR5).
Climate sensitivity - In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concent
Climate sensitivity - In Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concent
Climate Change (IPCC)
reports, equilibrium
climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concent
climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concentration.
Energy budget estimates of equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient
climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I
Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the
climate climate system.
Climate sensitivity to CO2 used for regulatory purposes should be based on available physical data as demonstrated in the above report, not un-validated climate simulation
Climate sensitivity to CO2 used for regulatory purposes should be based
on available physical data as demonstrated in the above
report, not un-validated
climate simulation
climate simulation models.
With upcoming release of IPCC Fifth Assessment
Reports beginning late in September, there will be a sharp focus
on specific issues like projected sea - level rise but also
on broader issues like
climate sensitivity and the decade - and - a-half-long slow - down in the rate of overall warming.
Climate sensitivity estimates from new research beginning in 2011 (colored), compared with the assessed range given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the collection of climate models used in the IP
Climate sensitivity estimates from new research beginning in 2011 (colored), compared with the assessed range given in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the collection of climate models used in the IP
Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5) and the collection of
climate models used in the IP
climate models used in the IPCC AR5.
Loehle estimated the equilibrium
climate sensitivity from his transient calculation based
on the average transient: equilibrium ratio projected by the collection of
climate models used in the IPCC's most recent Assessment
Report.
The probabilistic analyses of DAI
reported in this section draw substantially
on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to describe key uncertainties in the
climate system, such as
climate sensitivity, the rate of oceanic heat uptake, current radiative forcing, and indirect aerosol forcing.
The TSD purports to rely
on IPCC work as a basis for a supposed «
sensitivity» of
climate to increasing atmospheric C02, but fails to mention that the most recent IPCC
report completely undermines any basis for determining
climate sensitivity with the following statement: «No best estimate for equilibrium
climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement
on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»
Neither is the point that Nic Lewis may have some criticism of some papers
on climate sensitivity or of the IPCC
report.
I have written extensively
on the shortcomings of the Administration's determination of the SCC (for example, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/obamas-social-cost-carbon-odds-science) and the folks at the Heritage Foundation just yesterday released a
report looking at what would happen in DICE model if recent estimates of the equilibrium
climate sensitivity were used in place of the (outdated) ones used by the Administration.
-LSB-...] «
Sensitivity training directly
on the battlefield» sounds like something libs would do NOAA Misrepresents Inspector General
Report New report exonerates U.S. climate researchers What would you expect from this -LS
Report New
report exonerates U.S. climate researchers What would you expect from this -LS
report exonerates U.S.
climate researchers What would you expect from this -LSB-...]
«Working
on the IPCC, there was a lot of discussion of
climate sensitivity since it's so important for our future,» said Shindell, who was lead author of the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report's chapter
on Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing.