Do you think that in the same way that the Solanki et al paper on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas of strong greenhouse warming in recent decades, this (the fact that climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates of possible future actual temperature increases) should be clearly noted in media releases put out by scientists when
reporting climate sensitivity studies?
Not exact matches
National Geographic News
reports that this week's issue of Nature will publish a
study from a team led by Gabriele Hegerl of Duke University which finds
climate sensitivity of 1.5 º to 6.2 ºC, with a higher end somewhat higher than the standard range of 1.5 — 4.5 ºC.
So here are my 7 reasons for why
climate scientists should * never * use uniform priors for
climate sensitivity, and why the IPCC
report shouldn't cite
studies that use them.
National Geographic News
reports that this week's issue of Nature will publish a
study from a team led by Gabriele Hegerl of Duke University which finds
climate sensitivity of 1.5 º to 6.2 ºC, with a higher end somewhat higher than the standard range of 1.5 — 4.5 ºC.
He suggested that one example of possible tuning is that «
reported values of
climate sensitivity are anchored near the 3 ± 1.5 °C range initially suggested by the ad hoc
study group on carbon dioxide and
climate (1979) and that these were not changed because of a lack of compelling reason to do so».
WHT The Charney
report also considered paleoclimate
studies which demonstrated at least a 3C
climate sensitivity NOT TRUE The phrase associated was «might be» It» might be» much smaller.
The Charney
report also considered paleoclimate
studies which demonstrated at least a 3C
climate sensitivity — higher likely due to the long time scales involved.
Design / methodology / approach: The analyses are based on the IPCC's own
reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model - calculated temperatures and the warming effects of greenhouse gases based on the critical
studies of
climate sensitivity (CS).
In the
report, they find reasons to dismiss the many
studies and varying approaches that arrive at higher
climate sensitivity estimates, and fail to discuss the shortcomings of the lower
sensitivity studies that they prefer.
However, the GWPF
report only references the «main results» of Aldrin et al. (2012), whose
study actually estimated equilibrium
climate sensitivity of about 2.5 or 3.3 °C when accounting for cloud and indirect aerosol effects.
In the Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis
Report of AR4 («AR4: WG1»), various
studies deriving estimates of equilibrium
climate sensitivity from observational data are cited, and a comparison of the results of many of these
studies is shown in Figure 9.20, reproduced below.
The TSD purports to rely on IPCC work as a basis for a supposed «
sensitivity» of
climate to increasing atmospheric C02, but fails to mention that the most recent IPCC
report completely undermines any basis for determining
climate sensitivity with the following statement: «No best estimate for equilibrium
climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and
studies.»
So here are my 7 reasons for why
climate scientists should * never * use uniform priors for
climate sensitivity, and why the IPCC
report shouldn't cite
studies that use them.
With an eye toward the next IPCC
report, they wanted to stop the building momentum of observational
studies that suggest lower
climate sensitivities.