Computing and
representing sea ice trends: Toward a community consensus.
Not exact matches
Thirty years is far too short to encompass a cycle for the Arctic
sea ice where the major cycle is at least 70 years — the best cycle context for this I have found is
represented in the State of the Arctic Report or the work of Igor Polyarkov at IARC Fairbanks — looking at Surface Air Temperature
trends for the whole Arctic — 60 - 90N, for the century you can see two peaks in 1940 and 2005 with a trough in the mid-80s (if anyone can tell me how to copy in a jpg I could put one in here!).
53 % of the Outlook contributions suggest the September minimum will remain below 5 million square kilometers,
representing a continued
trend of declining
sea ice extent.
The remaining estimates fall into «high» and «low» extent groupings: the low extent group with a range of 4.2 to 4.7 million square kilometers,
representing a continued loss of
sea ice extent compared to 2008/2009, and the high extent group of 5.4 to 5.7 million square kilometers, suggesting a return to the long - term
trend for summer
sea ice loss.
Or does the background
trend in Figure 3
represent the global warming «forced» signal of an ever - increasing
sea ice loss, plus natural variability (Bitz)?
The original quote speaks of the 2009
ice extent
representing the continuation of a general
trend, «consistent with a decline of August
sea ice extent since 1979 ′, ie, not as much
ice as there was, once.