There, the past ten 10 - year trends (i.e. 1990 - 1999, 1991 - 2000 and so on) have all been between 0.17 and 0.34 ºC per decade, close to or above the expected anthropogenic trend, with the most recent one (1999 - 2008) equal to 0.19 ºC per decade — just as predicted by IPCC
as response to anthropogenic forcing.»
One study found that an observed decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall could only be simulated in response to black carbon aerosol, although conclusions regarding the
monsoon response to anthropogenic forcing differ.
The trend analysis for the 254 K isotherm Z T254K can also be considered as an extension of work by Santer et al. (2003), who reported a robust, zero - order increase in tropopause height over 1979 — 1997 in two earlier versions of reanalyses, which they interpreted as an
integrated response to anthropogenic forced warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere.
This large ensemble of simulations (that only differ by a small perturbation to their initial atmospheric state) allows the researchers to isolate the
forced response to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability.
Indeed, though the current pattern of winter U.S. warmth looks much more like the pattern predicted by climate models as
a response to anthropogenic forcing (see Figure below left) than the typical «El Nino» pattern, neither can one attribute this warmth to anthropogenic forcing.
But models based on physical principles also reproduce the response to seasonal and spatial changes in radiative forcing fairly well, which is one of the many lines of evidence that supports their use in their prediction of
the response to anthropogenic forcing.
However, this method assumes that the observed change in temperature since pre-industrial times is primarily
a response to anthropogenic forcings, that all the other anthropogenic forcings are well quantified, and that the climate sensitivity parameter (Section 6.1) predicted by the GCM is correct (Rodhe et al., 2000).
«[1] Projections of 21st century warming may be derived by using regression - based methods to scale a model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts
the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.
Gillett et al. derive the TCR by using a regression - based method to scale the model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts
the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.
They use a regression - based method to scale the model - projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts
the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.
Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in
response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low - latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040.
(e) Estimated temperature
response to anthropogenic forcing, consisting of a warming component from greenhouse gases, and a cooling component from most aerosols.
These results indicate the growing potential for using observations to constrain important properties of the climate system's response to anthropogenic forcing
This could lead to short - term changes, especially regionally, that are quite different from the mean warming (3 5) expected over the next century in
response to anthropogenic forcing.