And the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that arise in consequence of the flux of ozone into the troposphere (and
the resulting change in cloud cover) is intimately related to the GPH anomalies.
Not exact matches
As a
result,
changes in Antarctic
clouds, such as the amount of ground they
cover or how much radiation they absorb, can have ripple effects as far away as the tropics.
What will happen if the AO
changes is an open question, at one side there may be less inflow of warmer air, at the other side, this may
result in opposite
changes in cloud cover...
I was interested not so much
in the forcing effect of
clouds themselves so much as the
change in albedo which might
result from a
change in the overall extent of global
cloud cover.
Svensmark (1998) later proposed that
changes in the inter-planetary magnetic fields (IMF)
resulting from variations on the sun can affect the climate through galactic cosmic rays (GCR) by modulating earth's
cloud cover.
I am happy to agree with WebHubTelescope that the
changes in observed
cloud cover may be a
result of increases
in CO2.
It is unknown, to me at least, how much of each would be the
result, but there are many other impacts of
cloud cover fluctuations than just a
change in reflectivity.
What will happen if the AO
changes is an open question, at one side there may be less inflow of warmer air, at the other side, this may
result in opposite
changes in cloud cover...
It
changes because of greenhouse gases,
cloud and ice
cover changes, land clearing, volcanoes, dust and soot
in the atmosphere — all of the physical
changes that
result in a
change in the radiative flux leaving the planet either as IR (heat) emissions or as reflected sunlight.
Henrik Svensmark and others have shown a long - term correlation between solar activity and global temperature and have hypothesized that this
results from
changes in galactic cosmic rays leading to
changes in cloud cover.
You have not cited a third possibility (out of the infinite range of possibilities), no climate
change associated with CO2 (due to, for example,
cloud cover providing negative feedback), with current increase due to natural variability; or how about possibility four, that increase
in CO2 concentrations are caused by the temperature rise, which is
in turn caused by (for example) increased solar activity
resulting in increased biomass activity etc. etc..
Students will investigate whether that stoppage
resulted in any
changes to
cloud cover, temperature and / or radiation.
One last point related to my last post, is the extent / degree of magnitude of a more meridional atmospheric circulation pattern (N.H. especially) could influence snow
cover,
cloud cover, and precipitation amounts which could set up stronger positive climatic feedbacks, which could then
result in an even more significant climatic
change going forward.
Second, the big
change was
in the short wave as a
result of
cloud cover changes.
The most obvious
changes in CERES is
in SW as a
result of secular
cloud cover changes — a moderate decrease obviously.
What if reduced
cloud cover changed this to 29 % and the albedo was reduced to 99.18 watts / m ^ 2 or increased to 31 %
resulting in an albedo of 106.02 watts / m ^ 2?
But all those glaciers, sea ice and desert / grasslands and a -6 W / m2 increase
in low
cloud cover (IPCC feedback estimates) do not
result in Zero Albedo
change.
(2) Alternatively, FD events might only
result in dynamic effects over winter cyclogenesis regions, and therefore may not necessarily produce direct
changes in cloud cover (Tinsley & Deen 1991).
This is due to the difficulty
in distinguishing a cold, bright object (i.e., a
cloud) from an ice or snow
covered surface: as a
result of these difficulties ISCCP has been noted to mistake temperature
changes for
cloud changes at high latitudes (Rossow & Schiffer 1999; Laken & Pallé 2012).
Spencer has postulated elsewhere that natural factors, such as PDO swings, might be the underlying cause for
changes in cloud cover, which
result in changes in global temperature, IOW that
clouds act as part of a natural forcing, rather than simply a feedback to anthropogenic (or other) forcing.
It was
in fact 2 things an energy decrease from solar irradiance
in the 11 year cycle and a
change in cloud cover that is associated with ENSO
resulting in less reflected SW — seen
in the CERES data.
You will probably quote some papers on this topic with the -21 W / m ² forcing of
clouds without mentioning that this is the total forcing of a
cloud and not the forcing that
results from a
change in cloud cover from one percentage to another.
As there are not one but two sources of satellite data to show that all warming
in the satellite era
resulted from
cloud cover change — we should not allow mere supposition dissuade us until such time as other evidence prevails.
The water vapor feedback mainly
results from
changes in humidity
in the tropical uppertroposphere (2), where temperatures are far below that of the surface and the vapor is above most of the
cloud cover.
Regional climatic
changes played a role as well, which was particularly relevant
in Amazon rainforests, which accounted for 42 % of the global NPP increase, owing mainly to decreased
cloud cover and the
resulting increase
in solar radiation (note that it is basically impossible to determine how much of this increase
in NPP is a
result of recent global climate
change vs. natural climate variability, although both are likely to have played a role).
Berkeley Lab researchers Dev Millstein and Surabi Menon found that atmospheric feedback — such as
changes in cloud cover or precipitation — does have an important effect,
resulting in different amounts of cooling
in different cities, but that cool roofs and pavements are still beneficial for combating global warming.
The potential for
changes in cloud cover as a
result of the
changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain, since such
changes could overwhelm the forcing caused by the sea - ice loss itself, if the cloudi - ness increases
in the summertime.
But this amount could increase if nighttime
cloud cover were to become more common
in the future as a
result of climate
change.
It's a finding that should be reflected
in current climate models to help scientists make more accurate predictions about future Greenland melt — and could become even more important
in the coming years if
cloud cover over the ice sheet were to increase as a
result of climate
change.