How would
the resulting emissions trajectory compare with the trajectory that is likely to be set by policy - makers as part of a purely cap - and - trade approach?
Not exact matches
In the New Policies Scenario, the world is on a
trajectory that
results in a level of
emissions consistent with a long - term average temperature increase of more than 3.5 °C.
Domestically it would appear that major shifts in the
trajectory of greenhouse gas
emissions will come as a
result of the larger scale development and deployment of lower emitting sources of energy rather than through a climate bill that constrains
emissions.
«That
result is not sensitive to
emissions scenarios, whether we continue to emit CO2 along a business - as - usual
trajectory [RCP8.5] or begin to curb
emissions [RCP4.5].
Shifts in the regional
emission shares (Table 5 - 13a - d)
result from different developments in regional
emission trajectories.
The
emission pathway is so large that the yellow
emissions floor does not affect it until 2240, and as a
result the yellow and black temperature
trajectories are indistinguishable until after temperatures have peaked.
Fifteen
emission pathways and their
resulting temperature
trajectories.
ExxonMobil admits that the
emissions trajectory of its Outlook for Energy (which does not extend to 2100) «closely approximates in shape» an
emissions profile of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that «would
result in an average global temperature increase of approximately 2.4 °C by 2100 from the industrial age.»
This is unwise as it creates uncertainty in Australia's
emissions trajectory, and could
result in a surplus of permits.
Overvaluing the influence of CH4
emissions on climate could easily
result in our «locking» the earth into a warmer temperature
trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short - term cooling effects of the CH4 reductions, but then persists for many generations.
The exact warming
resulting from this delay depends on the
trajectory of future CO2
emissions but using one business - as usual - projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15 - year delay in CO2 mitigation.