When the emission estimates are compared over time,
the resulting relative uncertainty is generally lower than the uncertainty of estimates for individual years.
Not exact matches
(In addition the
relative weights of the observations vary, and this adds an additional factor to the
resulting estimate of the
uncertainty from uncorrelated part of the errors.)
The decision analytic framework of reducing scientific
uncertainty in support of optimal decision making strategies regarding CO2 mitigation has arguably
resulted in unwarranted high confidence in future projections and
relative neglect of natural climate variability and the possibility of black swans and dragon kings.
The reason for overlaying that with caution is a number of more complex factors: the general election and the
uncertainty that may
result, the
relative lack of growth in the eurozone and factors of
uncertainty over Russia.