History shows stocks have generated the best
returns of any asset class over the long run within North America — but they are volatile in the short run and investors who track things too closely are more likely to be frightened out of their positions prematurely.
Not exact matches
And Elliott, whose 13.4 % annual rate
of return over its four - decade history is unmatched among hedge funds, has also outperformed at a time when that
asset class has woefully lagged the market.
«
Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an
asset class experiencing large outflows, negative
returns and reduced standing as an anchor
of a well - diversified
asset allocation.»
Reflecting on this financial year just past, it may be helpful to look at the
returns of the major
asset classes over this year and then for the last 20.
That's because the standard deviation
of returns changes
over time, as does the correlation between
asset classes.
Here's the
return of various
asset classes and how the average investor has fared
over the last 20 years (source):
The resemblance to the poster that hung in your high - school chemistry
class is only superficial: this table simply presents the
returns of various
asset classes ordered from highest to lowest
over a period
of several years.
The Capstone strategy seeks to generate absolute
returns over the long term in the attractive
asset class of smaller under - researched companies by building portfolios that have lower than market levels
of debt, higher than market levels
of profitability, and are trading at a discount to their intrinsic value.
Have a look at this periodic table
of investment
returns, which shows the best and worst performing
asset classes over the last decade.
There is no evidence that tactical
asset allocation — that is, moving in and out
of asset classes in an attempt to enhance
returns — is an effective strategy
over the long term.
For example, Canadian and U.S. stocks are unlikely to have the exact same long - term rate
of return, but
over the last four decades they were pretty close, so rebalancing between these two
asset classes should not cause a significant drag
over time.
The bars in the chart below show our annual
return assumptions for selected
asset classes over the next five years, while the dots show our expectations
of volatility.
The three main
asset classes - equities, fixed - income, and cash and equivalents - have different levels
of risk and
return, so each will behave differently
over time.
Over the last 3 years the S&P 500 has been the best performer
of all the
asset classes, as shown in the table
of returns at https://paulmerriman.com/decade-
returns/.
4) Pretend that
asset classes that have had great
returns over short periods
of time will necessarily outperform far into the future.
Stocks,
over the long term, offer the most consistent and reliable
returns of any
asset class.
Over 99 %
of Mutual Series (
Class A shares)
assets were in funds ranked in the top two quartiles
of their respective Lipper peer groups for total
return for the one -, three -, five - and 10 - year periods ended May 31, 2009.1
One historical record
of the impact
of taxes on
returns in Australia is the annual Russell Investments / Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) Long - term Investing Report, which measures pre - and post-tax
returns for various
asset classes over 20 - year periods.
The information is intended to show the effects on risk and
returns of different
asset allocations
over time based on hypothetical combinations
of the benchmark indexes that correspond to the relevant
asset class.
My point is simply that it's very likely that if you are moving money in and out
of stocks based on volatility, you're much less likely to get the full market
return over the long term, and might be better off putting more weight in
asset classes with lower volatility.
For completeness my real
return target
of 4 % was set based on historical
returns of all my
asset classes over long periods combined with expected
asset allocations.
But with the stock selection that you're using, make sure that you understand risk and expected a
return and use the right
asset classes to kind
of boost your
return over the long term.
An investment in the fund could lose money
over short, intermediate, or even long periods
of time because the fund allocates its
assets worldwide across different
asset classes and investments with specific risk and
return characteristics.
The new Target Date recommendation takes more risk by investing in the more volatile small - cap - value and emerging markets
asset classes early on, but history suggests that leads to significantly higher
returns over a 20 to 40 year time frame which is what a young investor has ahead
of them.
Chart 1 below illustrates the volatility
of the two
asset classes by tracking the total
return index levels
of both indices
over the course
of 2015.
In the credit markets, U.S. municipal bonds tracked in the S&P Municipal Bond Index have
returned over 1.5 % in June as the diversity, yield, historical stability and quality
of the municipal bond market has made it a «risk off» destination
asset class.
Based on
returns for the
asset class (not the funds), a Couch Potato that used the total bond market index would have earned at a compound annual rate
of 9.27 percent
over the last 30 years while one that used inflation - protected bonds would have earned at a compound rate
of 9.24 percent.
After taking
over the reins in 1987, David Swensen, the chief investment officer
of Yale Endowment, moved aggressively into non-traditional and often illiquid
asset classes like foreign equity, absolute
return, real
assets and private equity.
All
of the
asset classes in the table above have positive long - term expected
returns, but all
of them will behave unpredictably
over the short term.
Over time, small - cap stocks have provided exposure to a segment
of the equity market that has offered faster growth, good risk - adjusted
returns, and relatively low correlation with larger - cap stocks and other
asset classes.
Basically, you'd send a portfolio (text is fine - all that's needed is the full name
of all
of the investments and dollar amounts), and a time frame, and you'll get a custom benchmark portfolio shell comprised
of the best available fitting indices for each
asset class back, with
returns looking back
over any time frame (as long as the data goes back).
As with global fixed income and equity markets, the core
asset classes represent a wide array
of return forecasts
over the next 10 years.
However the current environment is the first period
over the last 20 years marked by the simultaneous occurrence
of high correlation and low
return dispersion across managers,
asset classes, and sectors.
And
over those 40 years, the GTAA delivered an annualized
return of 10.48 % with a standard deviation
of 6.99 %, compared with a 9.92 %
return and higher volatility (10.28 %) for a buy - and - hold strategy using the same five
asset classes (US and foreign stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities).
So in a nutshell, all portfolio optimization does is refine and quantify the risk and
return characteristics
of a certain mix
of investment
assets (or
asset classes)
over a past time frame.
As you've learned above (and on the main
asset allocation page), we feel
asset allocation mixes should be determined by the client's life situation, not by which combination
of asset classes had the highest
return over some arbitrary time horizon.
The chart below shows the risk and
return profiles
of various
asset classes over the 20 years from 1993 to 2013.
Our Volatility Meter shows the historical
returns of key
asset classes and illustrates how diversification can affect a portfolio's volatility and
returns over the long run.
For the comparison, we'll use expected and realized
returns for a set
of 16 core
asset classes,
over the period 1971 — 2005.
If we can accurately answer the question
of what each type
of asset class returns over the long term, this may help us make a start on determining where the best
returns from our money will come.
Over this decade, we had an array
of asset classes at our disposal, many
of which produced respectable
returns; one even edged into double digits.
Over a long term period, buy - to - let is by far one
of the safest
asset classes and is capable
of giving the investor excellent
returns.
Combined with a portfolio
of stocks and bonds, real estate can help boost
returns and cash flow while spreading risk
over another
asset class so your nest egg doesn't tumble with the next stock market crash.
Those give you 1) the highest
return on your investment
of any other commercial
asset class, 2) the most control
over expenses, and 3) the easiest management
of anything (how hard is it to manage dirt?