It's also worth noting that there have been several bet signals triggered on Auburn, including two profitable
reverse line movement alerts triggered earlier in the week.
, sharp money indicators
like reverse line movement help offer insight into which teams are offering value and whether public perception is creating artificial line value.
Our monthly subscribers can easily follow those plays, but I wanted to determine whether I could create a basic
reverse line movement system to track sharp money.
While reverse line movement can easily be identified by comparing the current line, opening line and public betting percentages, not all sharp money indicators are so apparent.
For those who are unfamiliar,
reverse line movement occurs when the line moves against the public betting percentages and it is typically an indicator that big money has come down on one side.
The
term reverse line movement you read about all the time means a line's moving opposite of where the majority of tickets are being printed.
We also encourage users to look for lines that move against the public betting trends
as reverse line movement is a very strong indicator of sharp money.
The other way bettors can easily identify sharp money is by looking
for reverse line movement, which is when a line moves against our public betting percentages.
In fact, almost two weeks ago we detailed a highly profitable NBA Finals betting system focusing on
reverse line movement on the under.
When there's at least one point of
reverse line movement at the 33 % threshold, teams have gone 18 - 7 ATS (72 %) during bowl season.
This is also interesting because underdogs receiving less than 50 % of spread bets
with reverse line movement of at least a half - point have gone 11 - 3 ATS (+7.74 units.
The sweet spot for
tracking reverse line movement varies from sport - to - sport, but our 2016 MLB Betting Against the Public Report found that the ideal threshold comes when we examine teams receiving less than 30 % of moneyline bets.
Though this has been a profitable endeavor regardless of how the line has moved, targeting teams with
reverse line movement helps us find which teams sharp bettors are on while also lowering our sample size and improving our return on investment (ROI).
The next step was to
examine reverse line movement on the over by selecting the «O / U change from open to close» filter, and looking at all positive number i.e. instances when the total went up.
Initially pushed up to -4.5 by public support, there has since been
strong reverse line movement dropping the line to -3 despite Nebraska receiving 82 % of spread bets.
The first step to creating a
good reverse line movement betting system is to make sure we are betting against the public, so we selected the «spread %» filter and chose to examine those receiving 40 % or less of public bets.