We therefore repeated the calculation excluding this data point, using the 1910 — 2009 data instead, to see whether the temperature data prior to 2010 provide a reason to anticipate a new heat record.With a thus
revised nonlinear trend, the expected number of heat records in the last decade reduces to 0.47, which implies a 78 % probability -LSB-(0.47 − 0.105) ∕ 0.47] that a new Moscow record is due to the warming trend.