Actually, by the time you approach 200ppmv for CO2, you have already reached the break point in the curve, beyond which additional CO2 has much less impact on the RF — and this is close to the glacial value — suggesting that CO2 changes do not drive the glacial cycles (CO2 changes are supposed to amplify T
rise during deglaciation, but there is scant evidence for this and the assumption that it did also underlay the IPCC belief — and a great many references in academic papers give a T degrees C per ppmv CO2 without stating over which range of concentrations this is meant to apply.
It is clear that the paleo - record shows greater than meter / century
rises during the deglaciation (MWP 1A), or even in the Holocene (Carlson et al, 2008).
A simulation of the Siberian continental margin after glacial sea level drop and exposure to the cold atmosphere, snapshot as sea level
rises during the deglaciation.
Not exact matches
If it would warm 5 degrees this century, which seem quite possible, that would be about 100 times faster than the average rate
during the last
deglaciation, although I suppose ocean heat content
rises somewhat slower.
Remember that there was about 10 times the amount of ice on the Northern hemisphere
during the multimeter sea level
rise intervals of the
deglaciation, so there was a larger reservoir to work with.
# 39 Remember that there was about 10 times the amount of ice on the Northern hemisphere
during the multimeter sea level
rise intervals of the
deglaciation
Since the volume of ice at risk under BAU is within a factor of two of the volume of ice at risk
during a
deglaciation under orbital forcing, while the forcing is much more rapidly applied under BAU, looking at sea level
rise rates in the paleo - record might actually be considered a search for lower limits on what to expect if reticence did not run so strongly in our approach.
Ultimately, we would probably hit 20 inches a decade, the rate at which sea levels
rose during the last
deglaciation.
During deglaciation between 19,000 and 8,000 years ago, sea level
rose at extremely high rates (Cronin, 2012).
In addition, instead of being gradual (several millennia), nearly half of the ~ 85ppm
rise in CO2
during the
deglaciation occurred in three abrupt 10 - 15ppm steps that took place in less than 100 - 200 yrs and were followed by concentration plateaus.
In a paper «Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations
during the last
deglaciation», Shakun et al. (Nature 2012) contend that
rising temperature at the end of the last Pleistocene glaciation were preceded by increasing atmospheric CO2.
The final 80 m of sea level
rise took only ~ 2 ka
during the penultimate
deglaciation...»