His view is that
rising bond spreads imply economic weakness, and hence stock prices should see weakness as well.
Not exact matches
Portugal has been profiting from lower
bond yields, but as the ECB is expected to gradually lower its government
bonds purchases, yields and
spreads are expected to
rise, which could hamper the improvement in government finances.
Ten - year Italian
bond yields have
risen 17 basis points to 4.55 percent, since the news of an uncertain outcome
spread on Monday but the Italian treasury is going ahead with a sale of 6.5 billion euros ($ 8.5 billion) of 5 and 10 - year
bonds on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the
spread between riskier «junk» corporate
bonds and «risk - free» U.S. Treasurys has dropped since the election even though interest rates generally are
rising.
As
bond yields
rise the
spread between the two narrows, prompting asset allocation changes between equities and fixed income.
Nobody is really talking about it but, with the Fed tightening this week amid
rising corporate
bond spreads, Ray Dalio's 1937 analog continues to rhyme.
Fixed income,
rising (or falling) yields, junk
bonds, Fed tightening, TIPS,
spreads, mortgage - backed securities — there's no shortage of jargon for this supposedly «boring» investment that most of us own in our portfolios.
Over time, this suggests
rising bid - ask
spreads relative to past levels for more illiquid assets, such as corporate
bonds, to help market - makers cover their operating costs.
The recent widening of this
spread is, of course, much smaller than was seen in 1994 in the previous episode of globally
rising bond yields, when the yield on 10 - year
bonds in Australia moved from 1 percentage point to about 3 percentage points above the comparable US yield.
The more pronounced movements in longer - term
bond yields saw the
spread between the yield on 10 - year
bonds and the cash rate
rise in net terms over recent months to around 65 basis points.
While strong fundamental factors are driving recent growth in the non-government
bond market, some commentators have ascribed the timing of some issues to borrowers «getting in» ahead of Y2K, behaviour which would also have contributed to
rising spreads.
The net
rise in Australian long
bond yields over recent months has been less than in corresponding US yields, so the
spread between Australian and US yields has narrowed.
This is a little larger
rise than the move in US
bond yields in the same period, resulting in a small widening in the
spread to US
bonds.
In reaction to the polls, the
spread on French five - year government
bonds rose to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis.
They can get over 4 % fixed from 10 - year UK government
bonds — a huge
spread over short - term rates, but still not very attractive compared to 3.25 % from the FTSE 100, given that dividend income should
rise over time.
For example, based on our analysis using J.P. Morgan index data, the EMBIG index's 7.25 percent performance in 2014 is owed to a -0.35 percent
spread return combined with a 7.6 percent Treasury return, as U.S. rates dropped significantly (remember that when interest rates fall,
bond prices
rise, and vice versa).
Major equity markets have
risen further, and appetite for risk has increased, with
spreads on corporate and emerging market
bonds falling to levels not seen for several years.
Spreads between yields on highly - rated corporate
bonds and government
bonds rose slightly over the past three months (Graph 54).
This is in contrast to US and European markets, where corporate
bond spreads to swaps have
risen over the period.
Then, as implied volatility fell, credit
spreads did as well, and the prices of our
bonds rose, so in the spring of 2002, we reversed the trade and then some.
This leads the corporate
bond market default in tandem with
rising credit default swaps
spreads.
Surprise, as the anticipated future financing rates
rise, the willingness to try to clip a
spread off of long
bonds declines.
Finally, for a
bond - only portfolio, the penalty
rose by 0.22 % per
spread month to reach a maximum of just over 2.5 %:
But the Fed is not so sure, and officials note that corporate
bond spreads have narrowed over U.S. Treasuries, and that although mortgage rates have
risen, they are still low.
Fixed income,
rising (or falling) yields, junk
bonds, Fed tightening, TIPS,
spreads, mortgage - backed securities — there's no shortage of jargon for this supposedly «boring» investment that most of us own in our portfolios.
Also, the yield
spread between U.S. Treasuries and corporate
bonds has tightened, meaning credit offers thinner insulation against rate
rises.
I just had a theory on why it might be that VRM / BoC
spread is
rising much more than the FRM /
bond spread.
With so many investors flocking to junk
bonds, their prices have
risen - pushing down their interest rates and narrowing the
spread between risky and safer
bonds.
And even if corporate defaults
rise to 4 - 5 %, as many are predicting, current
bond spreads would still support investing.
What goes through your mind when you look at the
rising spreads on high yield
bonds?
This will sound weird, but I am not as much worried about government
bond rates
rising, as I am with credit
spreads rising.
Now here is my question to readers: aside from buying long Treasury
bonds, what investments can you think of that benefit from
rising implied volatility and credit
spreads, aside from options and derivatives?
This includes hedging techniques, such as using futures, options and swap
spreads to speculate on
rising (or falling) rates along certain parts of the yield curve, or on specific
bond classes or credit ratings.
It was notable that Government
bonds underperformed corporate
bonds by a healthy margin as credit
spreads stabilized and government yields
rose.
As
bond prices
rise, fixed rates will also
rise and the
spread between the two reflects the risk investors are willing to take when they move their money from a secure product, like
bonds, to invest in a less secure investment, such as mortgage securities.