Nobody is really talking about it but, with the Fed tightening this week amid
rising corporate bond spreads, Ray Dalio's 1937 analog continues to rhyme.
Not exact matches
Meanwhile, the
spread between riskier «junk»
corporate bonds and «risk - free» U.S. Treasurys has dropped since the election even though interest rates generally are
rising.
Over time, this suggests
rising bid - ask
spreads relative to past levels for more illiquid assets, such as
corporate bonds, to help market - makers cover their operating costs.
Major equity markets have
risen further, and appetite for risk has increased, with
spreads on
corporate and emerging market
bonds falling to levels not seen for several years.
Spreads between yields on highly - rated
corporate bonds and government
bonds rose slightly over the past three months (Graph 54).
This is in contrast to US and European markets, where
corporate bond spreads to swaps have
risen over the period.
This leads the
corporate bond market default in tandem with
rising credit default swaps
spreads.
But the Fed is not so sure, and officials note that
corporate bond spreads have narrowed over U.S. Treasuries, and that although mortgage rates have
risen, they are still low.
Also, the yield
spread between U.S. Treasuries and
corporate bonds has tightened, meaning credit offers thinner insulation against rate
rises.
And even if
corporate defaults
rise to 4 - 5 %, as many are predicting, current
bond spreads would still support investing.
It was notable that Government
bonds underperformed
corporate bonds by a healthy margin as credit
spreads stabilized and government yields
rose.