Sentences with phrase «rising inflation risks»

This is year ten of an economic recovery with rising inflation risks and a Fed determined to normalize interest rates.

But with no recession in sight, a deteriorating supply / demand picture and rising inflation risks, it's not difficult to see 10 - year yields moving above 3 % this year, the only questions being how far above and how fast.

Not exact matches

«Rising inflation expectations, an overall bullish commodity trend (late - cycle preference for commodities), geopolitical and financial risks are being offset by a rising dollar and rising real - rates,» Saxo Bank analysts said in aRising inflation expectations, an overall bullish commodity trend (late - cycle preference for commodities), geopolitical and financial risks are being offset by a rising dollar and rising real - rates,» Saxo Bank analysts said in arising dollar and rising real - rates,» Saxo Bank analysts said in arising real - rates,» Saxo Bank analysts said in a note.

In its latest Annual Report, it argued that «even if inflation does not rise, keeping interest rates too low for long could raise financial stability and macroeconomic risks further down the road, as debt continues to pile up and risk - taking in financial markets gathers steam.»

But at the core we've had a backdrop of solid growth and inflation is contained, and I think the risk for stocks is if that narrative does shift towards one where it's slowing growth and rising inflation.

Economic growth, rising inflation expectations and a Fed policy shift will challenge one of today's most successful investing strategies: credit risk.

Outside of a military confrontation on the Korean peninsula, a big risk for the market in 2018 remains inflation rising quicker than expected, which could force the Fed to move faster than it presently intends to in the United States.

With the economy already at full employment and more and more signs of higher wage and unit labor cost inflation, the risks are rising that it will be PCE moving up to CPI.

The Chinese economy charged ahead at an unsustainable 10.5 % pace in 2010, sparking concerns of rising inflation and the risk of speculative bubbles, particularly in the housing sector.

The risk of an escalation in which there were a broad - based tariff across a range of Chinese goods followed by a response from Beijing that was commensurate with that would cause a hit to U.S. and Chinese growth, a rise in U.S. inflation and possibly prompt China to take domestic action to boost growth.

We believe that the downside risk is that the economy enters a period of «overheating» characterized by rising inflation and higher interest rates.

Treasury yields have been rising not because of rising risks but because the asset bubble in bonds is deflating, inflation is rising, and investors are demanding more yield.

The tail - end of this period saw rapidly rising inflation and interest rates, but it's worth noting that the risk premium hasn't always been quite so narrow (stocks were up 10.5 % per year in that time).

At the same time, the Fed may raise rates if inflation picks up, and there's a host of reasons that could occur: acceleration in wages, a weaker dollar, rising commodity prices, growing risks of protectionism, overseas cash repatriation.

With inflation sitting well below the Fed's 2 % target and doubts about China's economy prevalent (see article), a rise would have been an unnecessary risk.

Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk, especially when real interest rates rise.

To illustrate how these risks may play out for different types of investors and strategies, consider how inflation affected performance in the most extreme historic example of high and rising inflation — the late 1960s and 1970s.

Fixed income investments entail interest rate risk (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall), the risk of issuer default, issuer credit risk and inflation risk.

In other words, inflation does not need to be high or rising to represent a risk to an investment strategy; it should be a key consideration for managing portfolio risk in any scenario.

In our view, the most important risk would be that the expansionary forces in the economy would increase to an excessive degree, bringing with it the likelihood that inflation would rise from its present position at the top of our target range to something in excess of it.

Moreover, a sustained move toward higher inflation is a risk to most investors and investment strategies, given that rising inflation has historically been a drag on equity and bond returns, making diversification beyond mainstream asset classes more critical.

These include a rise in inflation, an increase in geopolitical risk, and further financial market uncertainty.

These risks include the downside ones of a Chinese yuan devaluation and a U.K. exit from the European Union, as well as the upside risks of an emerging market rebound or a moderate rise in inflation expectations on improving growth prospects.

The risk is that if the increase in demand outstrips the increase in supply, inflation will rise unless the central bank raises interest rates.

If so, you might avoid the risk that rising rates could hurt the value of your bonds, but what about inflation?

Rather than stressing vigilance about future inflationary risks, Fed policymakers re-iterated their view that core inflation was likely to rise only gradually, eventually stabilizing around their 2 % target level.

Even if the combination of Brexit and technology keeps UK GDP growth and inflation at modest levels, the risk of global bond yields and real yields rising further has increased.

If inflation risks continue to rise and the Fed tightens, it should push rates higher for a variety of bonds.

Certain types of bonds offer a degree of protection from rising inflation and interest rates, though they come with their own risks.

European Central Bank head Mario Draghi says the expanding eurozone economy still faces «risks and uncertainties» — including a looming trade dispute with the United States — and has cautioned that inflation needs to rise further before monetary stimulus is ended.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

The Board's assessment throughout this period has been that, with strong growth, a gradual increase in underlying inflation, and firming demand for credit, interest rates needed to rise to lessen the risks of higher inflation in the future.

In my opinion, higher inflation is a much bigger risk than rising interest rates when it comes to bond performance.

And should interest rates rise a little over the next five years, these funds could be held in safe investments also mitigating inflation risk?

As we move further into 2018 without the economic acceleration and boom (hysteria aside, the inflation scenario never got very far in junk markets), and with liquidity risk rising again, it can't be surprising that junk markets struggle.

From the above case studies, one can draw conclusion that the Federal Reserve's pursuit of maximum employment have often contributed to the rise in risk asset valuation (an intended effect of easing financial conditions), and such policy would only be reversed during times of acute (or perceived) inflation risk.

The central bank is also of the view that near - term risks to inflation are well - balanced, and inflation on a 12 - month basis is expected to rise in the coming months and stabilise close to 2 percent.

However, the risks are balanced entering the FOMC minutes as the recent uptick in volatility could have as much bearing on Fed policy decision as the subtle rise in inflation

So on Tuesday as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke are celebrated at Brookings Institution in Washington, we will no doubt hear some cautious discussion about rising risks of inflation.

Stating that the risk of a substantial fall in inflation was greater than the risk of a substantial rise, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 per cent in June.

The government risks further embarrassment this year as Mr Brown has been uncompromising in his insistence public sector workers such as nurses, police officers and prison guards must accept a 1.9 per cent pay rise to maintain inflation.

They are subject to inflation risk, the chance that returns won't outpace rising prices.

The macroeconomic environment looks supportive for value and higher risk stocks with rising inflation expectations around the world.

TIPS are considered an extremely low - risk investment since they are backed by the U.S. government and because the par value rises with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, while the interest rate remains fixed.

Profit margins fall, interest rates rise, inflation roars, risk appetites decrease, etc?

My view of the Fed is that they want to drag their feet, because they see inflation rising, so even if Fed funds futures indicate a 75 basis point cut, my current view indicates 50 as more likely, again, with language in the statement that indicates even - handed risks.

TIPS are considered low - risk investments because they are backed by the U.S. government and because their value rises with inflation but the interest rate remains fixed.

So, they advertise that they are paying you 7 - 8 % +, when they are really paying you 4.0 - 4.5 %, and exposing you to the risk of inflation, because that payment will never rise.

As pointed out at the start, you must make post retirement investments to fight inflation while minimizing risk to meet your ever - rising expenses.

Needless to say, the biggest risk to the bond portion of our portfolios is rising interest rates and inflation.