[10:31 a.m. Updated In a conversation about the storm with Malcolm Bowman of Stony Brook late last night, we mused on whether Irene's impact would serve as a wakeup call prompting the city, which will face rising damage
risk as sea levels rise in this century, to seriously consider storm surge barriers like those on the Thames.
Not exact matches
As sea levels rise and disaster
risks to coastal communities grow, some planners are broaching the idea of a «strategic retreat» from areas that face persistent floods and fires.
There's often intense local pressure to rebuild communities
as they were, he said, even if the future
risk from
sea -
level rise or other climate
risks suggests it's not the most prudent path.
Silver Award: Alex Kuffner The Providence Journal «
Rising seas, rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a sea level rise of seven feet by the end of the century, as projected in a worst - case scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
Rising seas,
rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a sea level rise of seven feet by the end of the century, as projected in a worst - case scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the
risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a
sea level rise of seven feet by the end of the century,
as projected in a worst - case scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Such extensive
sea level rise would change the face of planet Earth — coastal cities such
as Mumbai, Tokyo or New York are likely to be at
risk.
By analyzing current building codes and the like, the New York City Panel on Climate Change determined the acceptable
level of
risk for its residents and is now prioritizing projects that hold to those same
levels the perils from climate change impacts directly on the city, such
as sea -
level rise or more frequent heat waves.
The authors highlight this with the case of future
sea level,
as larger uncertainty in
sea level rise requires greater precautionary action to manage flood
risk.
The field of urban planning is gaining interest
as cities around the world, including nearby Houston, are facing increased exposure to weather - related
risks and hazards ranging from
sea level rise and flooding to temperature build - up and urban heat island effect.
The draft report to be discussed over the coming months «is an important first step in developing a statewide framework to address the
risks posed by
sea level rise and coastal storms,» said Adam Freed, who serves
as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's deputy sustainability director.
noted a skeptical Manny Diaz, former mayor of Miami, a coastal city even more at
risk from the stronger hurricanes and
sea level rise as a result of climate change.
The Pentagon itself has described climate change
as an «immediate»
risk and major threat multiplier, one that could cause crops to fail, spark mass migrations and increase conflict for dwindling water resources (to say nothing of the threat
sea level rise poses to U.S. naval bases around the world).
Heavier rainfall plus
sea level rise — which make storm surges bigger and more likely to breach coastal defences — has scientists warning of a greater flood
risk in the UK
as the climate warms.
Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution [2
Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is
as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at
risk, and their collapse would result in a significant
sea level rise contribution [2
sea level rise contribution [22].
Based on modeling well into the future and with continued
sea -
level rise, «we see a pretty significant increase in flood
risk» even
as many of those storms may track further east of the coast than is common now.
In some respects, islands are at a very high
risk level as climate change blights and
sea levels rise.
If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at
risk from extreme events such
as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities will be threatened by
rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species will be in serious danger of extinction.
For example, if climatologists and oceanographers only considered
sea level rise to predict coastal damages without regard to escalating rates of beach - front home building, they would be
as errant
as would a coastal developer who assesses future
risks based only on current climate and
sea levels (and Professor Pielke has led the charge on such integrated approaches).
The
risk facing humanity is that climate change could spiral out of control and it will no longer be possible to arrest trends such
as ice melting and
rising sea level.
The obsession with average
sea level rise compared with other coastal hazards (increases in water
levels driven by storms
as well
as tsunamis) is a good illustration of how the focus on climate change is distorting assessments of
risks and hazards.
Both the IPCC and the TDTH report show that
risks to unique and threatened systems, such
as coral reefs, are high at 1.5 C and
sea -
level rise would continue long after 2100.
Diseases such
as dengue can now be found in more countries, the rain patterns are changing and there are key infrastructure works at
risk because of the
rise of the
sea level.
Nearly four million Americans, occupying a combined area larger than the state of Maryland, find themselves at
risk of severe flooding
as sea levels rise in the coming century, new research suggests.
At the Copenhagen conference in December 2009 the Director of the U.S. Navy Task Force on Climate Change, Rear Admiral David Titley gave a somber assessment of the
risks presented by climate change, including the likely need for greater humanitarian and disaster relief missions, and the dangers posed by such «wild cards»
as ocean acidification and
rising sea levels.
As Yohe sees it, a prudent
risk - management strategy dictates significant cuts in greenhouse gases and immediate planning to adapt to
rising sea levels and other effects of climate change.
Specific populations, such
as those less economically developed or in lower - lying regions will be at a very high
risk of impact and hundreds of millions of people will potentially be adversely affected by events like coastal flooding, saltwater infiltration into agricultural lands, and
sea level rise.
The report states that with SIDS being completely dependent on ports and airports, climate change
risks such
as rising sea levels, increasing temperatures and more frequent and / or intense storms pose serious threats to vital transport infrastructure, services and operations.
The low - lying South Asian nation, considered one of the countries most at
risk from climate impacts such
as sea level rise, worsening erosion and erratic [continue reading...]
For example,
as a result of ice melting on land, such
as from glaciers and ice sheets,
as well
as thermal expansion of the ocean, we have seen
sea level rise 3.4 millimeters per year from 1993 - 2015, which puts coastal communities at
risk of flooding and infrastructure damage.
Sea level rise has led to increased
risk of extreme flooding,
as well
as salt - water contamination for the state's fresh water supply.
5.2.2 Coasts will be exposed to increasing
risks, such
as coastal erosion, due to climate change and
sea -
level rise.
This will further increase the
risk of coastal inundations
as sea levels gradually
rise stemming from warming oceans and melting ice caps.
This past June, World Bank published a report warning that climate change presents serious
risks to Indonesia, including the possibility of losing 2,000 islands
as sea levels rise.
They disrupted planning meetings and disputed
as a plot NOAA's findings that the area faces the second - highest
risk from
sea -
level rise of any region of its size in the U.S..
But while adapting buildings in coastal communities and upgrading coastal defences can significantly reduce adverse impacts of
sea level rise and storm surges, they can not eliminate these
risks, especially
as sea levels will continue to
rise over time.
105 In addition, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island have each adopted some form of «rolling easement» to ensure that wetlands or dunes migrate inland
as sea level rises and reduce the
risk of loss of life and property.52
Soon after the 2007 release of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, those familiar with the science began to say that
as a result of the consensus process and the natural caution of scientists, the Fourth Assessment Report had seriously understated the
risks from climate change, particularly in its selection of scenarios and its estimates of likely
sea -
level rise.16
A worrying
risk for rapid
sea level rise occurs
as global temperatures warm to between 1.5 and 2.5 C.
The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at
risk due to high rates of sinking land (known
as subsidence).96 Climate change and
sea level rise are also likely to cause a number of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and changing interactions among trophic
levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.66
If emissions were to continue unabated and global temperature increases exceed 4 °C, increased rainfall would further enhance the
risk of floods by raising river
levels, which, combined with
sea level rise, could impact
as many
as 12 million people in Bangladesh, especially if a storm surge from a tropical cyclone compounded these effects.
They have begun to identify the communities most vulnerable to flooding, the hazards to local biodiversity
as forests and grasslands begin to feel the heat, and the cities most at
risk from routine coastal flooding
as sea levels rise.
It will also confirm the accelerated rate of change for impacts such
as sea -
level rise, the steady retreat of Arctic
sea ice and quickened melting of ice sheets and glaciers,
as well
as offer more detail on scenarios that will shape international negotiations over both short - term and long - term greenhouse gas emissions, including how long «business
as usual» can be sustained without dangerous
risk.
To be useful in a
risk context, climate change assessments therefore need a much more thorough exploration of the tails of the distributions of physical variables such
as sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation, where our scientific knowledge base is less complete, and where sophisticated climate models are less helpful.
For example, an analysis of the
risks of
sea level rise for the State of California evaluated the economic value of property at
risk of flooding,
as well
as the size, economic status, and demographic backgrounds of the population living in areas vulnerable to flooding, area of wetland likely to be lost, and other metrics related to threatened transportation, energy, and water infrastructure (Heberger et al 2011).
That's because the
risk of triggering abrupt changes in the climate system — such
as rapid
sea level rise or widespread droughts — becomes high above one of two degrees warming.
It precludes a focus on climate variability over time
as well the
risk of impacts from slow onset events, such
as sea level rise and
rising temperatures.
Overall, the
risk of
sea -
level rise from global warming is less at almost any given location than that from other causes, such
as tectonic motions of the earth's surface.»
Finally, a robust infrastructure program will allow Massachusetts to build more resilient transportation facilities, adapting to the
risks of climate change such
as heavy storms and
sea level rise.
[
As a caveat, it is of course reasonable to postulate the relative
risk / rewards involved in all feedbacks and warming / cooling knock - on effects for the future, additional
sea -
level rise predicated on deep ocean warmth perhaps being one of them.
Now climate scientists project that we
risk up to 10 times
as much warming this century
as in the last 50 years — with many devastating consequences from dramatic
sea level rise to Dust - Bowlification (see my review of more than 60 recent studies).
And it increases the
risk of truly catastrophic impacts, such
as several meters of
sea -
level rise.