Sentences with phrase «risk as the probability»

They measure long - term risk as the probability that portfolio value is below its initial value after ten years from 10,000 Monte ‐ Carlo simulations based on expected asset class returns, pairwise asset return correlations, inflation, investment alpha (baseline constant 1 % annually) and withdrawals (baseline approximately 5 % annual real rate).

We will define risk as the probability of losing money.

Not exact matches

Other traders prefer small risk; as a corollary, they must be taking trades with low probability.

In author and seasoned commodity trader Carley Garner's quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, «Higher Probability Commodity Trading» discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Considering the market improvement, continued reduction in our discount rates due to lower risks and increased probability of a liquidity event, the probability - weighted expected return method resulted in a common stock value of $ 5.27 as of March 31, 2010.

We won't pound the tables about imminent recession until we observe fresh weakness in the equity market (even a 7 - 8 % market loss would sharply raise our probability estimates), but it's important to recognize that financial risks are already fully developed, and as in other bubbles, one usually finds «catalysts» to blame for a collapse only well after the downturn is in full - swing.

One problem with using Lotto Shares as an analogy to risk assets, equities in particular, is that Lotto Shares have a definite payout P and a definite probability Pr that can be known and modeled.

The report highlighted an increased risk of recession in Europe, which the IMF estimates at a 38 % probability (double that of April), as well as a 24 % chance of a Japanese recession.

The probability of a baby dying from a home birth is approximately twice the probability of a child dying in a car accident at any point from birth to age 25, and ten times as high as the risk of dying in a car accident between birth and age 10.

The 0.5 % death rate of a higher - risk home birth is the same as the probability of a child dying between the ages of 1 and 18 from any cause at all.

As defined by epidemiologists, risk refers to the probability that an outcome will occur given the presence of a particular factor or set of factors.

When it comes to advising on any avoidance scheme a client may have offered to them this means fully explaining both the reputational and the litigation risks, as well as the ultimate probability of the scheme failing.»

In this study, published in Neuron last year, Greene and Shenhav observed that as the subjects made their decisions, they tapped a fascinating selection of brain areas: the insula, normally used to manage probability and risk, and the ventral striatum, which tracks magnitude.

Research suggests that small quakes immediately raise the risk of a large quake by as much as a thousandfold, says Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, though the probability is still only about 1 percent per day and falls rapidly with time.

ECO2 developed a generic approach for estimating consequences, probability and risk associated with sub-seabed CO2 storage based on the assessment of the environmental value of local organisms as indicated for example by the Natura 2000 network of nature protection areas or the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North - East Atlantic (OSPAR), the vulnerability of environmental resources and possible impacts on them as well as consequences and risks.

The risk to the politician is obtained by combining the probabilities of various actions, such as the assailant initiating an attack, the bodyguards neutralising this attack and the bodyguards presenting a direct threat to their charge.

You can think of risk as what can happen multiplied by the probability of its actually happening.

The team, composed of researchers in Canada and the UK, and led by Lauren Mokry, carried out a Mendelian randomization study in large population datasets to investigate whether genetically determined obesity was associated with increased risk of MS.. Such a study decreases the probability that exposures linked to obesity, such as smoking, can explain the findings.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

Uncertainties, probabilities and risks to the marine environment have to be assessed as well as their feedback to climate system.

An increase in fire risk (i.e., probability of occurrence)-- including an increase in size and possible frequency and / or severity (i.e., tree mortality)-- is expected in the coming century as a result of a) prolonged fire seasons due to increased temperatures, and b) increased fuel loads from past fire suppression.

The probability of a low - carb diet causing a greater reduction in heart disease risk was calculated as 98 %.

The RoSPA principle of «as safe as necessary, not as safe as possible» is underpinned by those commonly - used but sometimes misunderstood terms including hazard, risk, probability, and preventability.

we have to take decision at the end of 6 months when risk reward ratio as per our analysis say it can not give more than 20 % annualized return from there onward and on the other hand some other cheap stock are waiting for us... Even if one stock which we just sold after earlier will become multi baggar does not mean law of probability say us to hold it..

While higher allocations to equities help lower the probability of outliving funds (known as longevity risk) and inflation, they still don't eliminate them.

It is as one of my favorite bosses of the past said, «I'm willing to take lots of moderate risks, but not willing to take an action that has a material probability of destroying the firm.»

On a high level, many people define risk as «the worst possible outcome weighted for the probability of the occurrence of that outcome.»

Back to our example... you have found a great looking pin bar strategy on the daily chart, now you must find the safest place to put your stop loss so that the probability of it getting hit is as low as possible, you want to give the trade as much room as possible to work out while still maximizing your risk to reward scenario.

Investment risk is generally defined as the probability that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the investor's expectations.

Small stocks come with higher risk than large stocks as measured by credit rating, delisting probability, and volatility.

Investment risk could be interpreted as the probability of suffering a loss, lower returns, higher volatility resulting in additional costs, etc..

Risk can be defined as the probability of losing your principal.

Risk is defined as probability times impact of outcome.

And, when you do set them up with say, a 80 % probability, you get the same risk reward ratio as an IC.

In order to set them up with the same probabilities as an IC, you will end up with one side ITM from day one, so there is a risk of assignment from the get go.

Interested as I am in the firm as a going concern, as opposed to its liquidation value, I would likely assess the probability of a cash shortage and that would lead to an estimated cost of capital for future CF, but if I discount further the value of negative CF there's a risk of double dipping on the cash burn situation.

Access to advanced trading tools such as Probability Lab, Volatility Lab, Option Strategy Lab, Charts, Market Scanner, Portfolio Builder and the IB Risk Navigator;

When learning to think in probabilities and to view the market in terms of risk to reward, it is necessary to calculate the risk on a trade setup first, then you can calculate the reward as a multiple of the amount you have at risk.

I could've done a lower dollar risk with a call spread on DIA of 80/81, but the probability wouldn't have been as good for me to take a full profit on it.

It's not 100 % foolproof, but when used as a setup condition and combined with additional confirmation tools, your trades have a high probability of winning with relatively low risk.

«While having debt doesn't automatically put someone in a high - risk category, as balances increase, the probability of having difficulty making payments on time each month increases.»

In the standard Black — Scholes model, one can interpret the premium of the binary option in the risk - neutral world as the expected value = probability of being in - the - money * unit, discounted to the present value.

«While having debt doesn't automatically put someone in a high - risk category, as balances increase, the probability of having difficulty making payments on time each month increases,» Paperno said.

If that debt goes into the equation because it impact the risk I can not pay my mortgage, then the probability of forgiveness should go in the equation as well.

Figure 8 - 11 shows the strong relationship between risk, return and the growth of $ 1 as the probability of default increases.

As so often proclaimed here on the blog, risk is the probability of a permanent loss of capital.

As risk is equal to the probability of occurrence times consequences; I submit that the likely worldwide consequences of abrupt SLR demands the adoption / acceptance of a high confidence level (CL) that such an event will not occur (i.e. adoption / acceptance of the Precautionary Principle).

As risk is the product of probability of an event and its consequences, both the probability and the consequences are important.

... risk is defined as consequence (impact) multiplied by its likelihood (probability), the higher the probability of occurrence of an impact the higher its risk...»

Because I advocated for a careful risk analysis of the probabilities associated with global warming models and projections he immediately casts me as someone who has no interest in conservation or alternative energy sources.