Sentences with phrase «risk at market bottoms»

This dissonance in risk perception in theory and in practice is what leads to investors reducing risk at market bottoms and increasing risk at market tops.

Not exact matches

The fact that this ratio is now at the bottom band for most broadly defined stock indices suggests that the risk of continued underperformance by the broad market - versus large - cap indices - is substantially less than it was on April 5th, or even June 30th, when the most recent downdraft started.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

Most recently, though, on January 7, 2017, in a speech at the American Finance Association, you seemed to step out of that centrally casted character, almost coming across as an iron fist in a velvet glove: «The bottom line is that there has not been an excessive buildup of leverage, maturity transformation, or broadly unsustainable asset prices... Overall, I do not see leveraged finance markets as posing undue financial stability risks.

Third lesson: an experienced advisor can be of value even if he does not beat the market, by avoiding selling out at the bottom, and avoiding taking more risk near the top.