Sentences with phrase «risk of a recession»

The report highlighted an increased risk of recession in Europe, which the IMF estimates at a 38 % probability (double that of April), as well as a 24 % chance of a Japanese recession.

Such a paradigm would be more credible, more likely to result in the Fed's satisfying its dual mandate, reduce risks of recession, and increase the economy's resilience when recession comes.

A Growing Risk of Recession John P. Hussman, Ph.D..

«If the fall in the stock market continues, that suggests a higher risk of recession, which can't be good for small businesses and startups.»

2: Moderate or flat yield curve: 10 - year Treasury yield no more than 2.5 % above 3 - month Treasury yields (this doesn't create a strong risk of recession in and of itself).

Fact is, everyone expects leaner times in the not - too - distant future: Goldman Sachs economists note the current expansion is already 95 months old, the third - longest since 1854, and warn that the «medium - term risk of a recession» is growing.

I'll emphasize again that while I do view the economic picture as being consistent with progressive deterioration and a growing risk of recession, there is presently not enough evidence to expect a U.S. recession.

In fact the risk of recession at least through the end of this year appears to be fading fast.

The external and domestic headwinds have raised the risk of a recession in Singapore, and heightened the chance of fiscal or monetary stimulus over the near term, analysts said.

Singapore downgraded its forecasts on economic growth and exports for 2016 after confirming a contraction in output in the third quarter, raising the risk of a recession amid fresh uncertainty around global trade under U.S. President - elect Donald Trump.

«Markets are coming to the conclusion that the U.S. economy is close to overheating and therefore that the risks of inflation are bigger than the risks of a recession,» Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Slok said, quoted by the Financial Times.

And since scenarios with benign outcomes and peaceful transitions appear relatively remote, he argues the risk of recession returning to North America and Europe is rising daily.

«The risk of recession is never zero; there is something awry in the economy,» Sonders said.

If I am wrong in either exaggerating the risks of recession or understating the efficacy of policy, the costs of taking out insurance against a recession that can not be met with monetary policy are relatively low.

S&P assesses the risk of recession in the US in the year ahead at only 10 - 15 percent.

Such an outcome could raise the risks of a recession,» Bokobza said, adding that some expectations of tax reform have already been priced into the market.

I have devoted a large portion of my research to this effort, and I have found that it is quite possible to anticipate the onset of a recession and reduce equity exposure when the risk of recession is high.

If the economy were on shaky ground, the negative news would have triggered a much deeper correction and risk of recession.

This makes it particularly difficult for the yield curve to invert, and arguably skews the probability of the risk of a recession lower.

We think the risks of recession in Canada are higher at approximately 20 %, given the impact of lower energy prices and the lagged effect of a weaker currency.

Our assessment across a variety of economic indicators suggests that the risk of recession in the United States is approximately 10 % over the next twelve months.

The New York and Cleveland Federal Reserve banks both use the yield curve as a leading indicator of the risk of recession in the near future, typically between two to six quarters ahead.

Usually the risk of a recession really increase substantially when the Fed raises the Fed funds rate, the real Fed funds rate 50 basis points above the terminal Fed funds rate.

Stalled growth — if not the risk of recession — in much of Europe could cut into demand for U.S. exports.

This could settle economic uncertainty, underpin investment, keep the City in business and reduce the risk of recession.

While I think the risk of a recession is low, the risk of a market correction is higher.

So is this strategy just to protect against the risk of a recession in the next 3 - 4 years (after which time it becomes counter productive)?

Just as an insurance policy protects you from some kinds of risk, a good trading strategy protects you from the risk of a recession.

With credit growth below 2 % and with further asset price inflation unlikely, the risk of a recession in 2016 is high.

What is clear, however, is that when stock market action deteriorates and broad economic data is weakening even moderately, the risks of a recession actually jump considerably.

Today, the market is extremely focused on the risk of a recession or a short term downturn in the stock market.

These include 1) reducing the risk of recession; 2) reverting to quantitative easing; 3) moving away from inflation targeting; 4) using fiscal policy to replace monetary policy; (v) using fiscal and monetary policy together in a bid to introduce so - called «helicopter money»; and 5) pushing interest rates higher through structural reforms designed to lower excess savings, most obviously via increases in retirement age.

The expectation is that with the risks of recession in the air, the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates at all this year.

Some respondents in the report told T3 Sixty researchers they believed that the new president's policies increase the risk of another recession, while others said they will not dramatically impact the economy or commercial real estate.