Important U.S. industries have responded with consternation to the increasing
risk of a trade war with China, dubbing it an unwinnable situation.
Once Wall Street gets more clarity from this week's Federal Reserve meeting and rhetoric surrounding
the risks of trade wars subside, Vertical Research Partner Michael Dudas expects gold to spring out of its trading range.
Hefty U.S. fiscal stimulus and
the risk of trade wars create a wider array of potential...
Crude oil prices soared after we are seeing the reduced
risk of a trade war but increasing risk of heating up the real war in Syria.
David Kotok, chair and chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, said investors are now pricing in
the risks of a trade war and other issues stemming from Trump's words and actions.
Equity markets now appear to be somewhat more relaxed about
the risk of a trade war.
Hefty U.S. fiscal stimulus and
the risk of trade wars create a wider array of potential outcomes — both positive and negative — with implications for financial risk premia.
Investor demand for emerging market (EM) debt has been strong lately, as the near - term
risk of trade wars has faded and income seekers have flocked to the asset class» higher yields.
With
the risk of a trade war between the U.S. and China, volatility is creeping back into markets.
This belief risks being tested should Trump go ahead with planned tariffs on steel and aluminium as it raises
the risk of a trade war that would damage growth and punish stocks.
Hefty U.S. fiscal stimulus and
the risk of trade wars create a wider array of potential outcome...
However, we also believe that market volatility could remain heightened throughout the year due to the increased
risk of a trade war with China, uncertainty around the approaching mid-term elections, the potential for increased regulation of large technology companies, and increased investor wariness of market valuations in the midst of the elongated bull market cycle.
Not exact matches
«Thus, the
risks of potential «
trade wars» and the potential negative impact on the global economy and on oil demand if these
risks do materialise should constitute a serious concern for OPEC,» the authors argue.
LONDON, April 11 - The U.S. dollar slipped to a two - week low against a basket
of currencies on Wednesday as
trade war fears receded but uncertainty over possible Western military action against Syria bred
risk aversion among some investors.
A
trade war would be a
risk to Japan's economic growth story, says Andrew Staples
of the Economist Corporate Network.
«It had looked to many investors that the world was headed for a
trade war and an escalating
risk of war in Syria,» Marc Chandler, global head
of currency strategy at Brown Brothers...
For example, on Friday Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin acknowledged there's «a level
of risk» that the tariff dispute between the U.S. and China will erupt into a full - scale
trade war — something investors clearly don't want.
He said the cargo market, which helped fuel Cathay's second - half improvement in 2017, remained strong despite the
risk of a looming
trade war between the United States and China.
There's a Real
Risk That Trump's
Trade War With China Won't Change Anything TIME The Case
of Hong Kong's Missing Booksellers New York Times A Hong Kong Newspaper on a Mission to Promote China's Soft Power New York Times Was Letting China Into the WTO a Mistake?
WASHINGTON, April 18 - «Robust» business borrowing, rising consumer spending, and tight labor markets indicate the U.S. economy remains on track for continued growth, the Federal Reserve reported on Wednesday, with the
risks of a global
trade war the one big outlier.
But given Trump's unwillingness to stake out clear positions on taxes and spending, and his enthusiasm for threatening
trade wars with China and Mexico, supporting Trump could
risk elevating the populist, protectionist wing
of the Republican party over the significant chunk
of Republicans who believe in cutting spending and promoting free
trade.
The
risks of a spiraling
trade war were highlighted when U.S. President Donald Trump told his
trade team to identify another $ 100 billion in Chinese imports that could be hit with tariffs.
Several analysts have said that the global scope
of the penalty, combined with the use
of national security as an excuse, raises the
risk of a cascading series
of reprisals that threatens the stability
of the post-Second World
War trading system.
As the calendar turned, a
risk environment that was going strong on tax cuts, deregulation and free - market capitalism quickly gave way to 2018 themes
of interventionism,
trade wars and rising fiscal deficits.
And then there is the
risk that a president who likes
trade wars will have more
of them.
It's a sign that the Trump administration is still willing to
risk a
trade war with China despite its ouster
of strategist Steve Bannon, the most prominent economic nationalist in the administration.
I would not exclude another LTCM style episode
of systemic
risk given the
risk of unraveling
of highly leveraged carry
trades and the end
of easy liquidity: triggers could be a disorderly move
of the US dollar, perhaps following
trade war threats to China, leading to a 1987 - style stock market crash; or MBSs interacting with a housing slump and the hedging activities
of GSEs; or greater corporate distress or a Ford / GM entering into Chapter 11 triggering a massive sell - off in the murky, non-transparent and untested credit derivatives.
With Britain looking for partners outside the EU, there will surely be more accommodation, no less, which will heighten the
risk of damaging further the relationship with Donald Trump's United States, bracing itself for a possible
trade war with China.
US business groups: «The U.S. Chamber is very concerned about the increasing prospects
of a
trade war, which would put at
risk the economic momentum achieved through the administration's tax and regulatory reforms,» Thomas Donohue, CEO
of the US Chamber
of Commerce, said in a statement.
The tariffs lasted a much shorter period than was envisioned because
of the impending
trade war, the flimsy rationale employed by the US to employ them, and
risks to the US that were involved.
Instead, Trump has aggressively pursued tariffs that may initially satisfy his supporters» desire to crack down on China and other nations, but
risk sparking a
trade war that could devastate some
of the American industries that Trump has pledged to protect.
Even with the improved outlook, a «strong majority»
of Fed officials voiced concern that a
trade war would harm the economy, and some policymakers said the recent turbulence in financial markets highlighted
risks to growth, the minutes showed.
But Snaith warns that Trump's threats
of punitive tariffs on countries engaging in unfair
trade practices or currency manipulation could spark a
trade war that would raise the
risk of a national recession.
But that runs the
risk of kicking off a string
of tit - for - tat responses that could culminate in a
trade war.
Western allies press Trump to maintain nuclear deal with Iran: Reuters US intelligence monitors Iranian cargo shipments into Syria: CNN A
trade war is a major
risk for China's debt - ridden economy: CNBC Federal judge orders gov» t must accept new DACA immigration applications: WaPo Unification
of Koreas still unlikely as leaders prepare to meet: Reuters US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in April after March decline: CB New home sales in US increased to 4 - month high in March: MarketWatch Richmond Fed Mfg Index turns negative for first time since 2016: Bond Buyer S&P Case - Shiller Home Price Index surged in Feb, up 6.3 % y - o - y: CNBC Federal Housing Finance Agency: US house prices continued to rise in Feb: HW Corp bonds with lowest investment - grade rating look vulnerable: Bloomberg 10 - year Treasury yield reaches 3.0 % for first time since 2014: CNN Money
Fundamentals: There is a tug -
of -
war from the bulls and bears this morning as
trade war tensions cool, but
risks remain due to the FBI raiding the office
of President Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, and as we await a response to the chemical attack in Syria.
Top
of the
risk charts was the US's new - found protectionism, with
trade tariffs having the potential to batter investor confidence — especially if the US's
trading partners, rather than adopting a mollifying stance, choose instead to meet fire with fire by launching an all - out
trade war.
Other members
of the delegation, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, who heads the National Economic Council, appear more inclined to strike deals that would accomplish the president's goal
of reducing the gap between what America imports from China and what it sells to the country, and thus head off the
risk of an escalating
trade war.
Among them are factors I've discussed at length elsewhere — a weaker U.S. dollar, a steadily flattening yield curve, heightened market volatility, overvalued U.S. stocks, expectations
of higher inflation,
trade war jitters, geopolitical
risks and more.
For now, we believe that the
risks of a full - blown
trade war remain contained and are largely dependent on actions taken by the Trump administration in the U.S..
Taking actions that
risk starting a
trade war with the country that is the largest holder
of our debt and whose cooperation we need on a host
of issues, including North Korea, would not be welcomed by global markets.
Still, the Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs indicates that it is serious about turning decades
of U.S.
trade policy on its head, and that it might be willing to
risk a
trade war to get what it wants.
-- Choppy
trading conditions reflect geopolitical tensions, including conflict in the Middle East, and the threat
of a global
trade war, as well as the
risk of accelerated monetary tightening.
The back - and - forth tariff exchange with China illustrates some
of the
risks to California
of a
trade war initiated by the Trump Administration's protectionist actions.
Risks of a Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June moved front and center Thursday, jostling for position with a simmering China - U.S.
trade war, and weaker currencies on the growing list
of headaches for stock investors in Asia.
The conflict faced by Trump's supporters in Montana, where some 28,000 farms and ranches make agriculture a top economic driver in the state, is reflective
of the one facing the larger U.S. agriculture industry, which also largely backed Trump but now
risks becoming a casualty if a trans - Pacific
trade war erupts.
Deep in Montana's ag country, ranchers» and farmers» support
of Trump is being put to the test as the president's bellicose threats
of a
trade war risk their livelihoods.
«There is a level
of risk that we could get into a
trade war.»
«While Americans do respond to the arguments that American jobs are being lost to low price imports and that the US should push for better
trade deals, the counter arguments — that tariffs could hurt the solar industry overall, and that there is a
risk of starting a
trade war — do better,» notes Steve Kull, the director
of University
of Maryland's PPC.
It should be a matter
of concern for the bulls that they have once again failed to push through with the advantage that they had, in the form
of heightened
risks in the Syrian region and over the global
trade war fears and this is going to keep the prices under pressure.