Canada may need to hike minimum down payments to ease housing affordability woes and curb
the risks of low interest rates, the head of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Friday.
Not exact matches
Interest rates on 15 - year mortgage terms are typically
lower than those on longer - term loans because the shorter duration
of the loan makes it less
of a
risk to the lender.
But by talking instead
of acting, he also runs the
risk becoming another Alan Greenspan, the once infallible guru who infamously stuck to
low interest rates and ignored the massive debt and housing bubble he helped create until it was too late.
And especially in the case
of a business or a borrower who has
lower credit scores, it's usually higher
interest rates and fees that compensate for the higher
risk the lender is taking.
«Pockets
of risk have begun to emerge» following several years
of exceptionally
low interest rates that have changed how lenders and borrowers view debt, Morneau told a news conference in Toronto.
Risks abound, including the sustainability
of the expansion and the durability
of low interest rates.
Record -
low interest rates also have caused some big institutional investors to search for returns in the high -
risk, high - reward world
of venture capital.
However, he says there's good reason to think Canada can manage the
risks from debt, which he says is a natural consequence
of several factors, including the combination
of a strong demand for housing and the prolonged period
of low interest rates maintained in recent years to stimulate the economy.
«The public funds, at least in Pennsylvania, are structured to enable the bank to make a loan that they might not be able to make without the public debt behind them by enhancing the loan - to - value, reducing the
risk to [the bank], and then passing on some benefits [to the borrower] in the form
of lower interest rates, which help cash - flow issues.»
The continuing highlighting
of household imbalances, despite noting that the
risks have in fact lessened somewhat in the past six months, suggests the central bank remains worried that with
interest rates likely to continue at near emergency
low levels, the dangers
of something going off the rails intensifies.
«
Interest rates can't stay this
low forever, because there exists the real
risk of the economy getting overheated,» says Alex Nikolsko - Rzhevskyy, an associate professor
of economics at Lehigh University.
Counterintuitively, the central bank says
lower interest rates are necessary to reduce the
risk of a housing bust.
Financial stability
risks have become topical in the wake
of the global financial crisis and the subsequent extended period
of very
low interest rates.
Low interest rates have given a huge incentive to shift out of low - risk assets into stocks and corporate bonds in search of higher retur
Low interest rates have given a huge incentive to shift out
of low - risk assets into stocks and corporate bonds in search of higher retur
low -
risk assets into stocks and corporate bonds in search
of higher returns.
Those markets recovered shortly thereafter, on the premise that
low interest rates and high stock returns were worth the
risk and that the
risk of war on the Korean peninsula simply wasn't that high.
Once the federal government achieved a balanced budget, that
interest rate risk premium quickly disappeared and all levels
of government benefited through
lower borrowing costs.
ST gov» t bonds offer you the safest investment from a default
risk perspective, but you earn a
lower rate of interest on them.
To the extent that the factors affecting capital flows act to raise asset prices,
lower interest rates and reduce
risk premiums, it is harder for the markets to assess how much
of the currently very favorable conditions are likely to reflect fundamentals and prove more durable.
Nonetheless, the retreat from the extreme
risk aversion
of nine months ago, the partial recovery
of household net worth and the impact
of low interest rates will offer support to private demand over the period ahead.
I can see the
risk if you intend to sell and
interest rates rise, but buy and hold seems to be pretty
low risk — unless the dollar becomes defunct,
of course.
I like the idea
of having gold for inflation
risk and long - term treasuries for deflation but I can envision a future where
interest rates and inflation remain
low for years which would be bad for returns on both.
Yet another critical factor is often overlooked in explanations
of low interest rates: a structural rise in
risk aversion and savings over the past two decades.
In the mad scramble for loan creation during the final phase
of the Housing Bubble, the government created an environment
of essentially free money by allowing the big agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (or Phony and Fraudie, as I often affectionately refer to them), to securitize loans to the bottom
of the barrel
risks with crazy terms like no money down and incredibly
low «teaser»
interest rates.
But as long as the PBoC can continue to withstand pressure to
lower interest rates — and it seems that the traditional poor relations between the PBoC and the CBRC have gotten worse in recent months, perhaps in part because the PBoC seems more determined to reduce financial
risk and more willing to accept
lower growth as the cost — China will move towards a system that uses capital much more efficiently and productively, and much
of the tremendous waste that now occurs will gradually disappear.
In return for this
lower rate, the borrower must accept the
risk that the
interest rate on the loan most likely will rise in the future, thereby increasing the number
of monthly mortgage payments.
«The biggest challenge is delevering, but it presents the opportunity
of borrowing at a
lower rate of interest,» Gross said, noting that investors must be sure that the assets they're buying this year are creditworthy and present
low risk exposure.
World growth will remain
low on average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime
of negative real
interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the
risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old cyclical bull market is long by historical standards.
That
interest indicates investors» willingness to bet on the potential growth — and accept the potential
risks —
of a startup company in the context
of a
low -
interest -
rate environment.
All else equal, unless it possesses some sort
of major offsetting advantage that makes the
risk of non-payment
low, a company with a
low -
interest coverage ratio will almost assuredly have bad bond
ratings, increasing the cost
of capital; e.g., its bonds will be classified as junk bonds rather than investment grade bonds.
: A classic point
of contention for
risk parity is that
interest rates, in general, are too
low, and that while the approach may have performed well in the past, it is only because
of an historic bond rally, which is unlikely to happen again.
We focused on the two dominant macro factors — credit
risk and
interest rate risk — and how holding these factors together provided diversification benefits because
of their historically
low to negative correlation.
As savers, pension funds and insurance companies sought relief from the pain
of low interest rates, the issue now is «whether they ended up taking up
risks that were greater than they realized,» said Donald Kohn, the Fed's former vice chairman under Bernanke.
Put simply, even taking account
of current
interest rate levels, and even assuming that stocks should be priced to deliver commensurately
lower long - term returns, we currently estimate that the S&P 500 is about 2.8 times the level at which equities would provide an appropriate
risk premium relative to bonds.
This very
low market volatility can lead investors to take on more
risk, and in a period
of still relatively
low interest rates, to «reach for yield» — that is, buy riskier assets than one would otherwise, in order to achieve a desired profit or savings goal.
Interest rate risk Although high yield bonds have relatively low levels of interest rate risk for a given duration or maturity compared to other bond types, this risk can nevertheless be a
Interest rate risk Although high yield bonds have relatively
low levels
of interest rate risk for a given duration or maturity compared to other bond types, this risk can nevertheless be a
interest rate risk for a given duration or maturity compared to other bond types, this
risk can nevertheless be a factor.
Indeed, a combination
of lower interest rates and more stringent macroprudential policy would likely work to reduce both financial stability
risks and the
risk of an undershoot
of inflation at the same time.
In «The Dangers
of an Extended Period
of Low Interest Rates: Why the Bank of Canada Should Start Raising Them Now,» published by the C.D. Howe Institute, Masson argues there is urgency for the Bank to act in view of the economic distortions and financial risks low interest rates pose for Cana
Low Interest Rates: Why the Bank of Canada Should Start Raising Them Now,» published by the C.D. Howe Institute, Masson argues there is urgency for the Bank to act in view of the economic distortions and financial risks low interest rates pose for
Interest Rates: Why the Bank of Canada Should Start Raising Them Now,» published by the C.D. Howe Institute, Masson argues there is urgency for the Bank to act in view of the economic distortions and financial risks low interest rates pose for Ca
Rates: Why the Bank
of Canada Should Start Raising Them Now,» published by the C.D. Howe Institute, Masson argues there is urgency for the Bank to act in view
of the economic distortions and financial
risks low interest rates pose for Cana
low interest rates pose for
interest rates pose for Ca
rates pose for Canada.
The MOVE index suggested that US Treasury volatility was expected to be very
low, while the flat swaption skew for the 10 - year Treasury note denoted a
low demand to hedge higher
interest rate risks, even on the eve
of the inception
of the Fed's balance sheet normalization (Graph 9, right - hand panel).
A recent fear for high yield investors has been the prospect
of normalising
interest rate policy in developed markets — historically
low interest rates have made the high yield market more sensitive to
interest rate moves and effectively managing this
risk will be important.
While shortening duration can help mitigate
interest rate risk, another approach to consider is one that balances exposure to the very front end
of the curve with exposure to intermediate maturities for additional yield potential and
lower volatility, given that
rates are likely to rise slowly and stay historically
low for the foreseeable future.
One popular bond investing strategy is called «laddering» and provides a trade - off between
lower rates on short - term bonds and higher
interest rate risk of long - term bonds.
This is evident in a number
of developments, including: increased demand for higher -
risk assets; the increase in «carry trades» — a form
of gearing where funds are borrowed short - term at
low interest rates and invested in higher - yielding assets, often in other countries; growth in alternative investment vehicles such as hedge funds; and growth in alternative investment strategies such as selling embedded options (see Box A).
Continuing
Low Rates Risks Bigger Asset «Bubble» US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, 54 anni, warns that keeping interest rates near Zero risks inflating asset - price bubbles, saying officials should raise borrowing costs this year as the economy impr
Rates Risks Bigger Asset «Bubble» US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, 54 anni, warns that keeping interest rates near Zero risks inflating asset - price bubbles, saying officials should raise borrowing costs this year as the economy impr
Risks Bigger Asset «Bubble» US Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis President James Bullard, 54 anni, warns that keeping
interest rates near Zero risks inflating asset - price bubbles, saying officials should raise borrowing costs this year as the economy impr
rates near Zero
risks inflating asset - price bubbles, saying officials should raise borrowing costs this year as the economy impr
risks inflating asset - price bubbles, saying officials should raise borrowing costs this year as the economy improves.
Speaking
of Dodd - Frank, its restrictions on
risk - taking greatly reinforce the effects
of the Fed's
low interest rate policies.
While it's true that
interest rates are depressed, apparently setting a
low «bar» for equities, an additional question one should ask is whether
interest rates themselves are «fair» in the sense
of being adequate compensation for long - horizon
risks.
With
interest rates still hovering near the
lowest levels they've ever been in 5,000 + years
of recorded human history, it's very difficult to achieve a significant investment return without taking on substantial
risk.
This year Goldman is packaging hybrid FX derivatives that allow clients to hedge against a
risk of dollar - denominated
interest rates remaining
low.
Seven years after the great financial crisis
of 2008, the world economy remains at high
risk of a new slump despite continued ultra
low interest rates.
In my view, investors who view current valuations as «justified relative to
interest rates» are really saying that a decade
of zero total returns on stocks is perfectly adequate compensation for the
risk of a 45 - 55 % market loss over the completion
of the current market cycle - a decline that would historically be merely run -
of - the - mill given current valuations, and that certainly can not be precluded by appealing to
low interest rates.
What we're seeing here — make no mistake about it — is not a rational, justified, quantifiable response to
lower interest rates, but rather a historic compression
of risk premiums across every risky asset class, particularly equities, leveraged loans, and junk bonds.