Although downside
risks to growth remain, the y appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee.
Nevertheless, downside
risks to growth remain.
Nevertheless, downside
risks to growth remain.
Not exact matches
The central bank maintained its long - standing prediction that regions experiencing elevated house price
growth, such as British Columbia and Ontario, will face localized
risks, but the most likely scenario
remains a «soft landing» and stabilization of debt -
to - income ratios.
Powell in statements throughout the year, culminating with his recent Senate confirmation hearing, has been clear he sees little
risk of inflation that would prompt the Fed
to raise rates faster than expected, and takes weak wage
growth as a sign that sidelined workers
remain to be drawn into jobs.
While
risks to the world outlook
remain and have been reflected in sharp price movements in a range of asset classes, global
growth is expected
to trend upwards beginning in 2016.
World
growth will
remain low on average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will
remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as
to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the
risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock markets should continue
to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old cyclical bull market is long by historical standards.
And for all the muddle, the one thing that seems clear is that the
risks to the economy and particularly the labor market — which is generating solid job
growth and even some wage gains (for which we should all give Chair Yellen and the Fed serious credit)--
remain «asymmetric:» there's a greater
risk of needlessly slowing non-inflationary
growth than there is of inflation accelerating.
The recent burst of volatility has been unnerving, but it is important
to remember that the macro environment of synchronized economic
growth and muted macro
risks remains solid, although some are concerned about potential inflation and higher interest rates.
«Since the crash is not a certain deterministic outcome of the bubble, it
remains rational for investors
to remain in the market provided they are compensated by a higher rate of
growth of the bubble for taking the
risk of a crash, because there is a finite probability of «landing smoothly,» that is, of attaining the end of the bubble without crash.»
The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which we published last week, found that, while global
growth momentum
remains strong, short - term
risks have increased recently amid rising trade tensions, while medium - term
risks to growth and financial stability
remain elevated.
Despite the
risks to the debt burden, Moody's baseline scenario is that the debt -
to - GDP will
remain below 60 %, mitigated by the strong nominal GDP
growth due
to high inflation and the existence of government financial buffers (around 14 % of GDP).
Draghi said Wednesday that higher inflation, not
growth, is the «very clear condition» for the central bank
to end its bond - buying stimulus program, and that
risks to the outlook
remain.
However, further regional policy divergence, slow emerging markets
growth and global liquidity
risks are likely
to keep market volatility higher, meaning effectively navigating a low - return world will
remain a challenge.
Expect the RBA Governor
to note
risks to global
growth and that the Aussie bank will
remain vigilant.
While the
risks to the global outlook seem more balanced than they have been for some time, the prospects for a pick - up in global
growth remain subject
to significant uncertainty.
Analysts at Barclays Research said in a report: «The worst - case scenario has been avoided in Cyprus, but we think the
risks on the euro
remain to the downside, due
to the negative implications for the banking sector, political uncertainty in Italy and a sluggish
growth outlook.»
Growth is predicted
to reach 1.1 % for 2013 and 1.8 % for 2014, but there
remain serious
risks that the fledgling, long - delayed recovery could falter once again.
There
remains the
risk that robots may displace humans from jobs, although previous waves of automation have tended
to lead
to higher productivity and
growth, with benefits throughout the economy.
But if your savings
remain small, you may want
to set your portfolio for
growth by having a higher ratio of equities, which carry greater
risk but also a greater potential
to rise quickly.
With the global uncertainties in economic
growth, inflation and monetary policy
remain; portfolio diversification seems
to be the key in 2015, which allows upside participation while minimizes the downside
risk of over-concentration.
The strongest proposals received
to date include most of the following: (1) commercial or near commercial products; (2) revenue or near - revenue generating opportunity; (3) potential for sustainable operations without the need for equity financings; (4) sales and marketing support from a strong commercialization partner; (5) reduced
remaining regulatory
risk; (6) attractive
growth potential; and (7) willingness
to provide liquidity
to Avigen stockholders who need or prefer cash.
The bank said the biggest
risk to maintaining manageable affordability levels would be a sharp rise in interest rates, but many analysts believe that is unlikely
to occur as long as global economic
growth remains moderate and inflation pressures soft.
Despite the anxiety in the markets and the downside
risk to the world's economic
growth entwined in the European debt crisis, I
remain of the view that a credible plan
to stem the debt crisis in Europe has just begun and that European and global leaders and central bankers will all come
to their senses and intervene in a massive way.
But
to summarize, the ECB's latest economic bulletin revealed that the ECB thinks that «
Risks surrounding the euro area
growth outlook
remain broadly balanced.»
We
remain defensive in both Strategic
Growth and Strategic International Equity, but also
remain open
to taking a more constructive position - despite specific features such as overvaluation and economic
risks - if the broad ensemble of evidence shifts
to a more constructive mix.
Which reflects a similar two - tier attitude
to risk: In the real world, investors
remain risk - averse towards the majority of companies / stocks in the developed world, which face a world beset by surplus capacity & high costs, fragile & uncertain economic
growth, an intractable welfare class & an over-stretched and disillusioned middle class, and governments over-burdened by massive debt & future entitlements.
Russia
remains one of the perpetually cheapest markets in the world — but almost nobody's buying it & valuations appear
to permanently discount its current situation, so long term
risk's potentially asymmetric... As I've highlighted, Greater China still offers cheap access
to one of the largest / highest
growth economies in the world (
growth in India is catching up, but valuations are much higher).
We developed the Defined
Risk Strategy (DRS) in 1997 as a way to offer investors an innovative way to always remain passively invested for growth, while always seeking to minimize market r
Risk Strategy (DRS) in 1997 as a way
to offer investors an innovative way
to always
remain passively invested for
growth, while always seeking
to minimize market
riskrisk.
But in terms of their trailing medium - term returns & significant valuation discounts (see here & here), this burst of out - performance is none too surprising... Regardless, I'd expect the vast majority of investors
to remain focused on seeking gains closer
to home for the foreseeable future, while any developed market wobbles would likely infect emerging & frontier markets anyway — so exposure via high quality /
growth Western companies still appears
to offer better
risk / reward.
Many of my moderate
growth and income clients at Pacific Park Financial, Inc.
remain significantly less exposed
to stock
risk than they had eighteen months earlier.
And yet despite this
growth, there
remains a stubborn resistance among many litigators even
to consider ATE, despite the professional negligence
risk that could arise, and impact on indemnity insurance premiums.
When asked a question regarding the
growth of
risk management in recent years and the adoption of
risk management programs by law firms I was reluctantly forced
to report the fact that while
risk management programs have increased in popularity and use amongst organizations in Canada in general, their adoption in the legal services sector has
remained rare.
Victims of abuse are at high
risk for poor health, related not only
to the physical trauma they have endured, but also
to high rates of other social
risk factors associated with poor health.22 Abused children have high rates of
growth problems, untreated vision and dental problems, infectious diseases, developmental delay, mental health and behavioural problems, early and risky sexual behaviours, and other chronic illnesses, but child welfare and health care systems historically have not addressed the health needs of dependent children.23 - 33 Compared
to children in foster care, maltreated children who
remain at home exhibit similarly high rates of physical, developmental and mental health needs.34
With the major central banks helping
to keep interest rates low
to support the
growth of the economy and financial markets, the Global Investment Committee has cautiously overweighted
risk assets but «has stopped well short of a maximum overweight position because the environment
remains challenging.»
That's the
risk scenario, however, with our most likely view that interest rates
remain unchanged through 2017 and house price
growth of near
to the March level can be sustained,» says Loos.
Office occupancy and absorption rates both
remained high in the third quarter, as job
growth continued
to improve and companies took more
risks on new leases, according
to experts...
The possibility of a sharp slowdown in China and other emerging market economies, a further rise in the dollar, and geopolitical turmoil
remain downside
risks to growth.
Moreover, contagion effects from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, which appears
to be slipping into recession, are expected
to remain as a primary
risk to growth in 2012.