Bears under 12 - 0
road underdogs of 7 or more versus an opponent that had better record previous season
Road underdogs of at least 7 - points have gone just 426 - 406 (51.2 %), which isn't a high enough winning percentage to cover the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
Before the season we wrote our annual College Basketball and Betting Against the Public article, which found that
road underdogs of 10 - 20 points had won at a 54.6 % clip since 2008.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Minnesota is 3 - 8 their last 11 road, 4 - 15 as
a road underdog of 0.5 - 3.0, 1 - 8 as underdog.
Not exact matches
Public bettors have noticed this, as 67 %
of early tickets are taking the
road underdogs.
It's the end
of the
road and you should rejoice now because once the inept dinosaur is gone we shall no longer be perennially handicapped
underdogs waiting for our turn to exit competitions against better teams..
Both teams are currently
road underdogs receiving less than 25 %
of spread bets as they travel to Pittsburgh and San Francisco, respectively.
Underdogs in the midst
of a
road trip who have a winning percentage
of at least 50 % have gone 604 - 1,016 for +112.79 units and a 7 % return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
Both
of these teams are comfortable playing on the
road, and the value on the
underdog could be tough to pass up on given the strength
of both
of these teams.
Bettors may be interested to know that if you focus on
road underdogs with an over / under
of 44 or less the return on investment jumps to 19.2 %, however, the number
of past matches is more than cut in half resulting in a profit
of just 49.16 units.
They're getting just 31 %
of tickets to win at home while there's tons
of public support on big
road underdogs West Brom (+400 odds).
As a result, the betting public remains just slightly in favor
of the
underdog Bengals keeping it within a field goal on the
road against the AFC South champion Texans.
Since the 2005 regular season,
road underdogs receiving less than 45 %
of moneyline bets have an overall record
of 1712 - 2654.
Road underdogs have accounted for a big portion
of the units won, going 162 - 113 ATS for +39 units.
Vanderbilt at Florida: Tons
of love on the
road underdog here too, getting nearly 70 %
of spread bets.
Tampa Bay (+165 at the market - setting Cris sportsbook) is receiving just 19 %
of moneyline wagers as a
road underdog, making it a potential Best Bet this evening.
The tables below, which utilize closing lines from Pinnacle, display the five most profitable active umpires for home teams,
road teams,
underdogs, favorites, overs and unders since the start
of the 2005 season.
-- The Minnesota Wild are currently receiving just 28 %
of moneyline bets as a +175
road underdog today against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Mark (via email): What is the ATS record for College Basketball double digit (+10 points or more)
road underdogs when only 25 % or less
of the public played that side?
In one
of this week's most heavily bet games, Texas Tech opened as 4.5 - point
road underdogs at Pinnacle.
The Canadiens are currently receiving just 18 %
of moneyline bets as a
road underdog, which means they fit the criteria for our 2014 NHL Playoffs: Betting Against the Public article.
All ten
of these games featured
road underdogs, with nine teams playing against non-conference opponents.
Still, the disparity between home and
road underdogs is nothing short
of mind - blowing.
The first step is knowing what has been historically successful —
road underdogs on ATS losing streaks
of at least five games have covered at a 55 % rate since 2005 and have earned bettors nearly +50 units in that span (352-288-19 ATS record).
Underdogs have covered the spread 50.3 % of the time, road underdogs have covered the spread in 51.1 % of their games, but double - digit road dogs have covered at a 52.
Underdogs have covered the spread 50.3 %
of the time,
road underdogs have covered the spread in 51.1 % of their games, but double - digit road dogs have covered at a 52.
underdogs have covered the spread in 51.1 %
of their games, but double - digit
road dogs have covered at a 52.1 % rate.
Knowing that
road underdogs had performed well in games with low totals, but large
underdogs had not lived up to expectations, we wanted to know whether we could look at the flip side
of the equation.
Both
of these moves yielded profitable returns in the first week
of the season, and they validate our initial assertion that sharp bettors have pounded the
road underdog in this matchup.
Without their star player, the Celtics closed as 3 - point
road underdogs and received just 36 %
of spread tickets.
-- As we wrote in a recent article,
road underdogs receiving less than 35 %
of moneyline wagers have gone 76 - 104 (+24.35 units, 13.5 % ROI) since 2005.
Is there value in betting the ML
of underdog road teams in the NBA receiving 30 % or less
of the wagers?
In this system the higher the total starting at about 8 ′ the greater the chance
of underdog winning, can you break that down further taking into consideration the money line 110-130 130-150 150-170 170-200 and 200 and up also if team is Home or
road, Division, League, or inter league and have each month noted.
You all recently posted an NBA trend about
underdog road teams receiving 30 % or less
of the wagers as a winning betting strategy.
Over the past season the Warriors have closed as
underdogs in just five
of 98 games, all
of which came on the
road.
The Mountaineers opened as 1.5 - point
road underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook and, according to our public betting trends, they have received 39 %
of spread tickets and 38 %
of total dollars wagered.
Before the start
of the season we published our 2014 - 15 College Basketball Betting Against the Public report which explained how bettors could capitalize on contrarian value by taking large
road underdogs following a loss.
As you can see from the table below, the sweet spot for
road dogs this season comes when we focus on
underdogs of +130 or less.
Our sweet spot comes when we examine double - digit
road underdogs who are receiving no more than 25 %
of spread bets.
That said, the ideal moneyline range for these heavily bet
road teams comes when we look at
underdogs of +185 or less.
64 %
of tickets have come in on Kentucky as
road underdogs, but 63 %
of the money wagered has been on Tennessee.
With more than two - thirds
of bettors taking the
road underdog, the Giants dropped from -3 to -2.5 at Pinnacle.
Public bettors seem to be done backing the Seminoles this year as they're getting just 33 %
of spread tickets as a
road underdog.
In Week 2
of the season, the Patriots (who closed as 2 - point
road underdogs) defeated the Bills 40 - 32.
The Dolphins opened as 1 - point
road underdogs at Bookmaker, but they have received 82 %
of spread tickets and 91 %
of total dollars wagered.
With the majority
of bettors taking the
road underdog, the Vikings have dropped from -6 to -5.5 at Pinnacle.
In a battle
of 1 - 2 teams, the Eagles opened as 3 - point
road underdogs at CRIS and have received 83 %
of spread bets.
Betting Nuggets Arkansas closed with 69 %
of tickets as a
road underdog in one
of the most bet games
of the day, but lost at Auburn 56 - 3.
With public money pounding the
road underdog, we will continue to monitor this line to see whether it moves through the key number
of 7.
It's also important to realize that
road teams receiving no more than 30 %
of spread bets are almost always
underdogs.
The Raiders opened as 1.5 - point
road underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook, but they have received 83 %
of spread bets and 92 %
of total dollars wagered.
Perhaps not surprisingly — especially given the extremely competitive nature
of this series — the public has been pounding the
road underdog.