Mark (via email): What is the ATS record for College Basketball double digit (+10 points or more)
road underdogs when only 25 % or less of the public played that side?
Not exact matches
To start, we know historically in the NHL that
when betting against the public in the regular season,
road underdogs have fared better than home
underdogs.
When we narrow our focus to examine solely
road underdogs, this system improves to a 76 - 90 record with +21.74 units won and a 13.1 % ROI.
What I found most interesting
when looking at long ATS streaks was the difference between
road and home
underdogs.
As you can see from the table below, the sweet spot for
road dogs this season comes
when we focus on
underdogs of +130 or less.
Our sweet spot comes
when we examine double - digit
road underdogs who are receiving no more than 25 % of spread bets.
That said, the ideal moneyline range for these heavily bet
road teams comes
when we look at
underdogs of +185 or less.
We found that
when two ranked teams play each other, the
underdog has gone 68 - 49 ATS (+15.45 units) and the
road team has gone 56 - 47 ATS (+5.99 units).
Using our Bet Labs software, we found that elite teams have traditionally been undervalued
when they're an
underdog in the midst of a prolonged
road trip.