The authors, who include the Oxford Martin School's Professor Myles Allen, argue that strategies should be «anti-fragile», meaning they are not just
robust under uncertainty but more successful under a wide range of uncertainties, including scientific, economic and political risks.
Not exact matches
But what I would like to do in the forthcoming series on decision making
under climate
uncertainty is to explore how we might approach reframing the strategy for identifying
robust policy options for dealing with climate change in the context of the broader challenges to sustainability.
This paragraph...: «But what I would like to do in the forthcoming series on decision making
under climate
uncertainty is to explore how we might approach reframing the strategy for identifying
robust policy options for dealing with climate change in the context of the broader challenges to sustainability.»
The goal of working with scenarios is not to predict the future but to better understand
uncertainties and alternative futures, in order to consider how
robust different decisions or options may be
under a wide range of possible futures».
Should any of the
robust findings have been listed
under uncertainties instead?
Assuming that climate change and other deep
uncertainties can not be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision - making methodologies that are able to deal with climate - related
uncertainty, namely cost - benefit analysis
under uncertainty, cost - benefit analysis with real options,
robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis.
A way forward is the decision analytic framework of
robust decision making
under deep
uncertainty, which emphasizes scenario discovery and
uncertainty analysis and identifying a broad range of
robust decision strategies.
The three main criteria for a
robust emergent constraint are satisfied: the physical mechanisms are well understood, the statistical relationship between the quantities of interest is strong, and
uncertainties in the observed variations are weak, allowing Hall and Qu to constrain the snow - albedo feedback
under global warming.
What you are advocating is excellent and a necessary re-orientation for the science policy interface, IMO, to «decision making
under deep
uncertainty,
robust decision making and scenario thinking».
Decision making
under deep
uncertainty, and the attendant strategies for
robust decision making, are making headway.