When we chart 117
rolling return periods for the Dividend Aristocrats since its inception (May 2005), we see it consistently outperformed the S&P 500 under almost all market conditions.
Not exact matches
The study examined
returns in a diversified portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds over
rolling 30 - year
periods starting in 1926.
The strategies derive from three choices: (1) length of the
rolling window used to calculate stock and market index betas (one, three, six or 12 months of daily
returns); (2) portfolio holding
period (12 months or three months); and, (3) portfolio tilt method (four alternatives).
«to provide a level of protection from the effects of inflation by generating a total
return (the combination of income and growth of capital) consistent with or greater than the rate of UK inflation over a
rolling three - to five - year
period.
Finally,
periods of favorable valuation and unfavorable market action provide acceptable average
returns, but are
roller - coasters, including a significant share of both «top» weeks and «worst» weeks.
I started small, but decided to go for it after my initial testing
period and
rolled over an old 401k that was
returning — negative
returns at the time.
Yet the risk - adjusted
returns over a 10 - year
rolling period are lower for frontier markets than for other investment areas.
While a comparison of
rolling returns assesses average relative performance over typical holding
periods, it does not take the fund's volatility or exposures into account.
A
rolling return comparison shows the average relative performance of the fund over typical holding
periods.
Alpholio ™ calculations indicate that from inception inception through February 2017, the fund
returned more than the ETF in approximately 70 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 71 % of 24 - month
periods and 51 % of 12 - month
periods.
A comparison of
rolling returns, which determines relative gains or losses of the fund over typical holding
periods, does not adjust for the fund's volatility or exposures.
The median cumulative (not annualized)
return difference over a
rolling 36 - month
period was minus 3 %.
Rolling returns can show if a fund is a consistent performer or volatile in short
period.
Rolling returns are calculated by taking average annualized
returns for several blocks of
periods at different intervals.
Alpholio ™'s calculations indicate that over the five - year interval through July 2016, the fund
returned more than the ETF in only 16 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 22 % of 24 - month
periods and 47 % of 12 - month
periods.
While a
rolling -
returns analysis provides useful insights into performance over typical holding
periods, it does not take the fund's
return volatility or exposures into account.
Alpholio ™ calculations show that over the ten calendar years through 2016 the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 94 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 80 % of of 24 - month
periods and 72 % of 12 - month
periods.
«In light of the changing liquidity conditions, a possible improvement to the static [
rolling] approach explored above would be to adopt a dynamic
rolling schedule in which the
roll would occur over a
rolling window that is determined on an ongoing basis, rather than defined in advance... adopting different
roll schedules can produce very different
returns, depending on the time
period in question.
Alpholio ™ calculations show that from January 2000 through September 2016 the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 60 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 54 % of 24 - month
periods and 49 % of 12 - month
periods.
Alpholio ™'s calculations show that over the ten years through July 2016, the fund
returned more than the ETF in approximately 64 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 56 % of 24 - month
periods and 58 % of 12 - month
periods.
While a comparison of
rolling returns over simulated holding
periods is instructive, it does not adjust for the fund's volatility or exposures to various factors.
Alpholio ™'s calculations show that since inception, the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 72 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 76 % of 24 - month
periods, and 68 % of 12 - month
periods.
They present
returns for numerous overlapping (
rolling) increments, instead of quarterly and annual trailing calendar
periods that only let you see points in time.
Alpholio ™'s calculations show that since September 2004 (the start month of the current manager), the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 47 % of all
rolling 12 - month
periods, 48 % of 24 - month
periods, and 62 % of 36 - month
periods.
You are also eligible on your
return for tax year 2016 to exempt up to $ 101,300 * 1/4 (or 1 / 3rd, depending on when you arrived) of income earned abroad in that year, as the 12 - month
rolling period began in September of 2016.
You have to look at
rolling 20 - year
periods before there's a very a high probability of equity
returns close to that 8.5 % average.
The left axis in the chart below depicts
rolling returns of the 10 - City Composite Index on 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year holding
period durations.
Alpholio ™ calculations indicate that through August 2016, the fund
returned more than the ETF in 95 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 88 % of 24 - month
periods and 68 % of 12 - month
periods.
The
rolling returns refer to the mathematical process of comparing one year of data to the previous
period's data.
Alpholio ™ calculations show that since 2007, the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 61 % of all
rolling 12 - month
periods.
Alpholio ™'s calculations show that over the ten years through March 2016 the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 79 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods.
Alpholio ™'s calculations show that since that ETF's inception in January 2012, the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 18 % of all
rolling 12 - month
periods and 6 % of
rolling 24 - month
periods.
We quantified the holding
period with the
rolling return for each
period in question — 10 -, 7 -, 5 - and 3 - year holding
periods.
Clear investment objective of achieving a defined
return above inflation (pre-fees) over
rolling 3 year
periods.
The Schroder Real
Return CPI +3.5 % Fund is designed to target
returns above Australian inflation over
rolling 3 year
periods.
Source: Furey Research Partners, LLC and Russell ®, 12/31/1978 to 6/30/2017, annualized
return over
rolling 10 - year
periods Additional information for indexes shown at end of commentary.
In fact, about 85 % of all
rolling three - year
periods (and approximately 91 % of all
rolling five - year
periods) yielded superior
returns for dividend payers.
Over the
rolling 10 year
periods since the early 1970's the Permanent Portfolio always had a positive after - inflation
return.
The Best and Worst 12 months is calculated from
rolling 12 - month
returns over the 30 - year time
period.
Over long
periods of time, smart indices that
roll and / or weight differently have also performed well with reduced losses rather than positive
returns in down
periods.
Alpholio ™ calculations show that over the ten years through September 2016, the fund
returned more than the ETF in about 45 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 53 % of 24 - month
periods and 61 % of 12 - month
periods.
Over a
rolling 36 - month
period, the cumulative (not annualized)
return of the fund trailed that of the ETF by a median 1.90 %.
Along with its attractive distribution yield, MOGL also aims to generate long - term capital growth and outperform the MSCI World Net Total
Return Index, in Australian dollars, over a
rolling 5 - year
period, net of fees.
The aggressive strategy is the more equity focused version of our Moderate Countercyclical portfolio and will seek to generate higher
returns with the understanding that stocks tend to generate strong 5 and 10 year
rolling returns, but also seeks to protect the investor from substantial downturns during
periods in the business cycle when large downturns are most probable.
In 2014, Alliance Bernstein compared the
returns of investing immediately in the S&P 500 versus investing gradually through dollar - cost averaging, analyzing every
rolling 12 - month
period since 1926 (results are shown in the chart above).
We analyzed withdrawal rates looking at the worst
rolling period returns that we have ever experienced and we are getting results that are right on track and even better than what has been recommended in the past.
Historically, three - year
rolling returns for the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats revealed they've outperformed in 95 % of three - year
rolling periods since inception.
Alpholio ™ calculations indicate that under the longest - serving manager, the fund
returned more than the ETF in 51 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, 46 % of 24 - month
periods, and 43 % of 12 - month
periods.
The
rolling return comparison assesses the fund's relative performance over a holding
period but does not take into account its exposures or risk.
Alpholio ™ calculations indicate that the fund
returned more than the ETF in just 40 % of all
rolling 36 - month
periods, with a median cumulative (not annualized)
return difference of negative 3.06 %: