Sentences with phrase «running mean global temperature»

The 12 - month running mean global temperature (Figure 9b) may continue to rise for a few more months before the ENSO change causes the next decline.

(3) the 12 - month running mean global temperature in the GISS analysis has reached a new record in 2010.

Sunday, August 8, 2010 Churchville, VA — James Hansen of NASA, an ardent believer in man - made warming, announced recently that «The 12 - month running mean global temperature in the Goddard Space Institute analysis has reached a new record in 2010... NASA, June 3, 2010.

He evidently is not too literate in global warming theory either because he tries to explain the current non-warming period by saying that the ``... current stand - still of the 5 - year running mean global temperature may be largely a consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominantly El Nino conditions, and the second half had predominantly La Nina conditions.»

Not exact matches

[Response: The idea of a recent plateau in global temperature is ill - founded, see our new ERL paper, Fig. 1, where global temperature is shown as 12 - months running mean.

(2) What proportion of model runs from a multi-model ensemble produce global mean temperatures at or below (on average) the actual measurement for the last 10 years?

Second, the absolute value of the global mean temperature in a free - running coupled climate model is an emergent property of the simulation.

Is it any mystery that during World War II global mean temperatures reached a peak of fever heat, just when daylight Savings Time was once again widely implemented (running * continuously * from Feb. 2, 1942 to 30 September 1945 in the United States, for example)?

My understanding is that GCMs are run several times with known forcings (as far as we can determine them) but random natural variability (e.g. ENSO), so the end result is an «ensemble» of model runs characterised by mean, standard deviation etc. rather than following precisely the year - to - year variations of global temperature.

In Fig. 8, I have digitized the outer bounds of the model runs in Fig. 7, and also plotted the HadCRUT3 global annual mean temperature anomaly over the same period.

Present 12 - month running - mean global temperature jumps about as far above the linear trend line (Fig. 2b in the paper) as it did during the 1997 - 98 El Nino.

For decades we have reported / updated the global temperature record, showing the calendar - year annual - mean temperature, usually with the 5 - year running - mean included.

If the model is accurate enough, then the model run with the realization of the stochastic process that most matches the future record ought to be a reasonably accurate model for the evolution the mean global temperature.

Specifically, the cloud cover is multiplied by the factor 1 + c T, where T, computed every time step, is the deviation of the global mean surface air temperature from the long - term mean in the model control run at the same point in the seasonal cycle and c is an empirical constant.

And, of course, we do not need to global climate models to run impact models with an annual average increase in the mean surface air temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.

Running twelve - month averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.

Running twelve - month averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.

Running twelve - month averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.

To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).

Future global vegetation carbon change calculated by seven global vegetation models using climate outputs and associated increasing CO2 from five GCMs run with four RCPs, expressed as the change from the 1971 — 1999 mean relative to change in global mean land temperature.

Being sensitive means we need to look long and hard for the smallest nit in the natter — the invisible nuance — i.e., we must continue to ignore the failure of Western education and their miserable performance based on the all too easily measureable product that is coming out of the state - run dropout factories — and, rename the earnings of the productive so that now our paychecks are government revenues needed to invest in teasing out some unmeasurable human influence on a mythical 30 year average global temperature.

By weighted averages, if every year the global temperature is in the range and with the distribution of the global temperatures of the last ten years, then the cumulative 30 - year running mean by 2024 will continue to accelerate upward in trend, as cooler years drop out of the mean replaced by warmer years.

Figure 2: Observed GISS 21 - year running mean global mean surface temperature (heavy solid) along with that temperature cleaned of the internal signal (dashed).

HadCRUT3, GISS, etc. data sets report annual global temperature (i.e. climate data obtained over each of a series of years: one year climate data) but often add 5 or 10 year running means to graphical presentations of their data.

To explain this, think about the central IPCC projection of a 3.5 degrees increase in global mean temperature, which would imply significant but moderate economic damage (maybe a long - run loss of 5 - 10 per cent of GDP, depending on how you value ecosystem effects).

@ - «This is why homeostasis is the key feature of global absolute surface temperatures, which have fluctuated by little more than 1 % either side of the long - run mean in the past few tens of thousands of years.

Temperature and precipitation changes from the high - end model simulations (21 runs) were scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C.

And they are: the standard deviation of the mean global temperature over the last 50 years of the historical period for the runs making up the simulation ensemble for each single forcing is 0.02 C or less.

Global mean surface temperatures (shown in degrees Kelvin) from CCSM4 for 5 runs into the twenty - first century, under the RCP4.5.

Simple climate models have been used to explore the implications for global mean temperature (see Box 2.8 and Nakićenović et al., 2007), but few AOGCM runs have been undertaken (see Meehl et al., 2007, for recent examples), with few direct applications in regional impact assessments (e.g., Parry et al., 2001).

The observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running means of global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue, along with linear trend of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).