On Oct. 5, Rush Limbaugh
said hurricane forecasting often involved «politics» because «the National Hurricane Center is part of the National Weather Service, which is part of the Commerce Department, which is part of the Obama administration, which by definition has been tainted.»
Not exact matches
More from USA Today:
Hurricane Matthew shifts closer to Florida,
forecast says Hurricane Matthew: Here are scenarios for the USA Sprites dance above
Hurricane Matthew
Oct 30 (Reuters)-
Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's
Hurricane Irene, but final totals will be hard to come by for some time because of the scale of the disaster, catastrophe
forecasting companies
said on Tuesday.
«Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major
hurricane status by Thursday,»
said the NHC in its latest advisory, which also called for «catastrophic flash flooding» in parts of Puerto Rico.
When
hurricanes are
forecast in the future, the hospitals will host platelet drives with local blood banks as the storms approach, Philpott
said.
When there's a spate of major
hurricanes, people tend to wonder if we're entering an era of bigger and more powerful storms,
says Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, a Pennsylvania - based company that provides
forecasts.
«Even though
hurricane forecasts are costly and have a high impact on health and safety, there has been little research demonstrating how to depict
forecast uncertainty to the general public effectively,»
said Padilla.
Six to 10 of those storms are likely to reach
hurricane strength, the agency
said in its initial
forecast for the 2011 storm season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 1.
Scientists working to improve storm intensity
forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they
say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
But in the big picture,
hurricane models adeptly
forecasted Irma's ultimate path to the Florida Keys nearly a week before it arrived there,
says Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany in New York.
«By improving our understanding of the processes that drive tropical cyclones and
hurricanes, we will be better positioned to improve our ability to
forecast these events and their impacts with longer and longer lead times,» he
says.
Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper,
says decades of weather prediction data show that
forecasts have improved — and will improve — as scientists learn more about
hurricanes.
The 2016
hurricane forecast is NOAA's most accurate and reliable yet, Sullivan
said.
«Our study is important because tropical cyclone intensity
forecasts for several past
hurricanes over the Caribbean Sea have under - predicted rapid intensification events over warm oceanic features,»
said Johna Rudzin, a PhD student at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author of the study.
In the 25 years since
Hurricane Andrew devastated southeastern Florida, the 3 - day track
forecast for
hurricanes has improved by 65 percent, she
said.
NOAA evaluates the accuracy of its seasonal
forecasts each year, with the aim of seeing the number of storms fall in the given ranges at least 70 percent of the time, which they do consistently, Gerry Bell, lead seasonal
hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center,
said.
The errant
forecast said 2013 would see above - average activity, with eight
hurricanes and three that would develop into major
hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five - step Saffir - Simpson intensity scale.
The 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season is expected to be quieter than normal, with a below - average number of storms and
hurricanes, a leading U.S.
hurricane forecasting team
said last week.
But
forecasts suggested the
hurricane would not reach land and that storm warnings may be altered, the NHC
said.
Bell
said that he and his office, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, have been fielding questions about the August lull in Atlantic
hurricanes and whether it would cause his
forecast team to soften its May and August outlooks, which concluded that the 2013 season had a 70 percent chance of being more active than normal.
I remember headlines many weeks back
saying simply we're headed for an above - average number of Atlantic
hurricanes, which seems to be the standard, annual
forecast.
They released a detailed spending plan,
saying among other things that more money could increase computing power, a prerequisite for gaining insights and
forecasting skill on drought, tornadoes,
hurricanes and regional impacts of human - caused climate change.
Forecasts of
hurricane frequency don't matter,
said Garret Foskit, Galveston County's emergency management coordinator.
That data, scientists
said at the Nov. 10 briefing, can be used to improve
hurricane forecasting by providing more data and in a more timely manner than possible with other satellites or
hurricane - tracking aircraft.
«A
hurricane of this magnitude will have impacts extending far from its center, so it's important for residents not to focus on the exact
forecast track but to consider the system as a whole,» he
said.
Chan and Au - Yeung
say that their research shows the importance of including land - surface variation in
hurricane forecasting in the future.
Muir - Wood
says cat modelers have always accepted the 100 - year average of history for
forecasting future
hurricanes.
Weather
forecasting in the region had «vastly improved» since previous
hurricanes, he
said, but global warming was worsening the impacts of such storms.
I
said it was tacky to promote a for - profit corporation in the business of making
hurricane forecasts before the bodies are cold in this latest
hurricane disaster.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which is currently underway, is intended to improve intensity
forecasting among other parameters,
said Knabb.
James Franklin, chief of
forecast operations at the National
Hurricane Center in Miami, said forecasters, at least, are ready for this season, having made significant improvements in hurricane - track forecasts in rece
Hurricane Center in Miami,
said forecasters, at least, are ready for this season, having made significant improvements in
hurricane - track forecasts in rece
hurricane - track
forecasts in recent years.
«The
hurricanes have not caused me to change my long - term
forecast,»
says Simonson.