Equally worthy of note, the very
same valuation measures during the bullish peaks in the 20 - year period never approached the mindless extremes that exist at present.
Not exact matches
«On the other hand, using the
same essential
measures of
valuation and market action, but including periods of major economic dislocation into the dataset, produces average return / risk inferences that are substantially less favorable.
Don't criticize historically reliable
valuation measures that have maintained the
same tight relationship with actual subsequent 10 - 12 year market returns that they've demonstrated across a century of history.
I have several models that take the
measure of equity
valuations, and they all reach the
same conclusion — this market is stretched.
That's fine, but understand that through most of the period prior to the 1960's, interest rates regularly visited levels similar to the present, yet these
same measures of stock
valuations typically resided at well below half of present levels.
Some investors are ignoring the warning signs from these
valuation ratios, since the bull market has continued higher even though the
measures have told much the
same story for some time.
That brings us to the next potential risk — the risk that the largest companies in the S&P 500 Index also tend to be overvalued when compared with their 10 - year average price / earnings (P / E) ratio.2 According to our research taking these
valuation measures into account, 70 % of the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index were overvalued, as of December 31, 2015 and 56 % of the top 25 stocks are overvalued, the very
same ones that make up a third of the index allocation.
Probable Reserves can be valued in the
same way, but with a 50 % haircut, while
Measured / Indicated Resources should only be included (with a 75 % haircut) occasionally in your
valuation.
As reported by Bloomberg, the
valuation measure peaked on the
same day in Dec. 2017 for bitcoin and the P / E ratio.