Economists like to
say about inflation that prices are determined by how much money is chasing how many goods.
But this week, a team of theorists decided to ask: assuming the signal isn't caused by dust, what exactly does
it say about inflation?
Now that inflation is back in the crosshairs of the markets, as investors try to understand what has caused such a swift correction in stocks, it's worth looking back at what Buffett has
said about inflation in the past.
Equities futures were pointing to a higher opening for U.S. stocks Tuesday morning as the 10 - year Treasury yield paused close to a level that apparently has concerned some market participants because of what
it says about inflation expectations and the potential to dent corporate borrowing...
Not exact matches
«It's one of the things I'm often puzzled
about, is how many folks are writing
about how
inflation's been missing in action and all that,» Poloz
said.
«I can at most venture a personal judgment, based on some examination of the historical evidence, that the initial effects [on employment] of a higher and unanticipated rate of
inflation last for something like two to five years; that this initial effect then begins to be reversed; and that a full adjustment to the new rate of
inflation takes
about as long for employment as for interest rates,
say, a couple of decades.»
While gold is often considered an
inflation hedge, Julius Baer
said in a note, the fact that price pressures were being driven by confidence
about growth rather than dollar weakness and rising oil prices meant it was failing to react positively.
He expects low - risk returns in line with economic growth,
say about 2 % after
inflation.
Poloz was noncommittal
about specifics, but he
said the findings could mean that the Bank of Canada might have to tolerate wider misses of its
inflation target.
She
says she is not worried
about equity valuation levels or
inflation and is telling investors to stay invested.
Nixon
said the Germans are probably suffering from a «lack of legitimacy» at the central bank and are still very concerned
about the impact of quantitative easing — a massive stimulus program following the euro zone debt crisis of 2011 that's designed to boost lending but also stoke
inflation.
Well, the last time the Bank of Canada's mandate was renewed here's what it had to
say about the wonders of
inflation targeting:
Author Kelly Shue, of the University of Chicago,
says boards» apparent mistake is a common one, highlighted by years of research in the field of behavioral economics, and much like the way workers get confused
about the effect of
inflation on the real value of their paychecks.
«He's very optimistic
about the economy and he's optimistic they can hit the
inflation target,»
said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.
In Vermont, where the minimum wage is currently $ 8.60 and has been above the federal level and indexed to
inflation since 2007, small business owners don't think much
about the annual wage increases anymore,
says Betsy Bishop, president of the Vermont Chamber of Commerce.
Robert Shiller
says his calculations suggest stocks will rise
about 2.5 % a year for the next decade, plus
inflation, which has recently been averaging 1.5 %.
ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure
said the bank was working hard to prevent public expectations
about inflation from becoming entrenched «on either side» — neither too high nor too low.
He
said warning
about prices «might not be fashionable» give that
inflation has been below target in recent years.
«I will be looking closely at the evolution of
inflation before making a determination
about further adjustments to the federal funds rate,» she
said.
On
inflation, the statement removed the word «somewhat» from June's verbiage and
said simply that
inflation was running «below 2 percent,» a subtle tweak that nonetheless probably signifies officials are a bit more pessimistic
about reaching their mandated objectives.
«The strength of the economy in both Quebec and Ontario, combined with low food
inflation, currently favour the full - service supermarket, and we are pleased with the performance of the Metro banner in both provinces,» CEO Eric La Fleche
said Tuesday during a conference call
about its second - quarter results.
Poloz
says the only rate he cares
about is
inflation, and virtually every piece of official communication from the central bank notes the boost that non-energy exports are getting from the weaker exchange rate.
«Ten years past the financial crisis and we could see a period where, instead of talking
about «secular stagnation» as our mutual friend Larry Summers likes to do, we're going to be seeing growth upgrades that we haven't seen, we're going to see investment like we haven't seen and we might see
inflation in a way we haven't seen,» Rogoff
said.
Just as a rough example assuming no 401K and no company match and just an individual IRA with an assumed
inflation adjusted equivalent of $ 6K per year for 18 years at
say 5 % yielding
about $ 170K at age 40 then it sits at 5 % for twenty more years would give you
about $ 450K at age 60.
That
said, the Bank of Canada is clearly concerned
about the real estate market if another financial crisis hits or
inflation concerns force mortgage rates up faster than consumers can handle.
More than a third (37 %) of Americans in the latest poll
said their family's income was staying
about even with
inflation; only 5 %
said they were staying ahead of
inflation.
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder,
says the market should be thinking
about inflation risks but it's not currently.
O'Neil
said he's skeptical
about the assumptions that a Trump agenda of increased government spending and tax cuts will be fully enacted and lead to faster growth, higher
inflation and bigger budget deficits.
But later in the month, when the
inflation numbers for the previous month are released, we should really
say something
about real, as in
inflation - adjusted, wage growth.
The ECB head
said that «overall, while we can be more confident
about the path of
inflation, patience and persistence with regard to monetary policy is still warranted for underlying
inflation pressures to build up and
inflation to converge durably towards our objective.»
I hope to explore this properly in another note soon, but suffice to
say for the time being that the typical framework economists use to think
about inflation - which they proxy by changes in the CPI - is narrow, incomplete and fails to do justice to the richness of
inflation as a concept.
So if you're already 52 years old, and you're expecting a nice government pension that's
inflation adjusted, and you expect Social Security, and you have to worry less
about,
say, Social Security cuts for example.
Economists are interested in seeing if the Fed
says anything
about inflation.
«As much as there's a lot of hoopla
about this increased lending and profitability, all the lending in the world is not going to matter if Treasurys are right
about growth and
inflation going forward given this flattening of this yield curve,» he also
said on «Closing Bell.»
 (You can't
say that
about far too many defined benefit pension plans, and there is no
inflation indexing of other pensions.)
That
said, the long - term implications of bailouts, tax shortfalls and lack of budget discipline is likely to be significant
inflation pressure beginning
about 4 years or so out, and continuing for the remainder of the decade.
The S&P move and the government's announcement of a $ 6 billion incentive package «reignited market concerns
about the overheated economy at a time when
inflation is rising,»
said Piotr Matys, a London - based Rabobank strategist, as quoted by Reuters.
From what I have
said about the Bank's approach, it should be clear that any differences between our judgments and the markets» judgments can occur not only because our
inflation forecasts might differ, but also because our basic objectives are much broader than the markets», and our horizons are much longer.
The Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith
said: «Earnings are now rising at 3 percent and
inflation is running at
about zero.
Conventional cosmology
says that galaxies and galaxy clusters originated during «
inflation», an expansion that began
about 10 - 36 seconds after time zero.
Bishop of Gloucester, Rt Rev Rachel Treweek (above),
said: «We have heard a lot
about how earnings are not keeping up with
inflation, but there is an urgency to recognise that low income working families are taking a double hit due to the four - year freeze in child tax credits and other benefits.
Sfakianakis expects Egypt's food
inflation to continue rising in 2011 to reach
about 20 percent year - on - year, and
said it would be difficult for Egypt to curb prices because globally they are likely to remain high this year.
This year, Mr Mahama
said, «we are going to bring it down to 5.3 %, then it means that
inflation will gradually come down; we are looking to bring
inflation back down to a single digit, then once
inflation is coming down, then interest rates will gradually follow, and, so, the prospects look very good and I am very bullish
about the Ghanaian economy.»
The National Chairman of Socialist Party of Nigeria, SPN, Segun Sango, on Wednesday
said that the President Muhammadu Buhari - led Federal Government lacks the ability to proffer solution to the country's economic challenges, stressing that current government has brought
about high rate of
inflation and increased poverty.
Although he told the Treasury committee it had served Britain well, he would not rule out replacing it with a growth target and
said that he was «glad» that Mark Carney, who has been chosen as the new governor of the Bank of England, was contributing to an international debate
about the value of
inflation targets.
He
said there had been a decline in the year - on - year
inflation from
about 17 per cent in 2016 to 10.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2018, while the supplied side improved driven by the growth in the agricultural sector.
It
said: «The union's concern
about the political direction of the Government, as well as the industrial concerns over continued calls for pay restraint in the public and private sectors while
inflation busts through the Government's targets.
«It's important that we think
about it as something across the board so as to not change the balance of power between the executive and the Legislature,»
said Assembly appointee Roman Hedges, who proposed an
inflation - adjusted increase to legislators» salaries of
about $ 35,000, which went nowhere.
Growing doubts
about evidence for ancient gravitational waves don't undermine cosmic
inflation,
says the theory's co-founder Andrei Linde — and don't let feelings obscure science
The Breakfast Club made $ 45 million (adjusted for
inflation, that's $ 115 million today) and inspired a wave of more angsty films
about growing up, including Pretty in Pink and Some Kind of Wonderful (also written by Hughes), Stand by Me, For Keeps, Dead Poets Society,
Say Anything, and School Ties.