Saunders
says hurricane trends are difficult to study because the number of hurricanes naturally rises and falls over decades.
Not exact matches
«Eagle Ford production has been on an upward
trend since it bottomed out in late 2016, although rig counts have been declining since reaching 86 on May 26,» Dallas Fed
said, noting that the Eagle Ford output dropped in late August and early September due to curtailments amid
Hurricane Harvey.
«Even if we take the extreme of these error estimates, we are left with a significant
trend since 1890 and a significant
trend in major
hurricanes starting anytime before 1920,»
say atmospheric scientists Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.
This
trend is likely to continue, the researchers
said, adding that major coastal disasters such as
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 already have indicated the possibly increasing risks associated with settling in the country's low - lying coastal areas.
This is not to
say for a minute that we shouldn't be looking for
trends in things like
hurricane intensity, just that finding or not finding a
trend at this time doesn't prove a whole lot.
He asked what the
trend data on terrorism would have
said in 2000 as an analogy to the lack of discernible
trends in
hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and drought.
«NOAA public affairs called and asked what I would
say to certain questions, like is there a
trend in Atlantic
hurricanes.
Atmospheric scientist Clifford Mass of the University of Washington also has a problem with Munich Re's findings,
saying that once the data are adjusted for population there is no recent upward
trend in tornado or
hurricane damages.
The null hypothesis works the other way: in this case, the null hypothesis is that no
trend exists in
hurricanes in connection with observed 0.5 °C warming; if you can not reject that hypothesis, as the authors
say you can't, then it is useless to linger on any theory of «how» (or why) it happens.
Scientists
say the extreme rainfall events that feed these floods are on the rise for many parts of the world, and this year's
hurricanes fit that
trend.
If there is a
trend I could be convinced otherwise I disagree with Governor Cuomo's comment that «there is a pattern of extreme weather that we've never seen before» — reiterating his comments in the wake of
hurricane Sandy, when he
said that «anyone who
says there's not a dramatic change in weather patterns is probably denying reality.»
That
said, however, it shows how even if there is no
trend in
hurricane activity, we are still likely to see dramatic increases in the damage and destruction that
hurricanes cause to us in the future.
Morano
says that peer - reviewed scientific literature indicates no upward
trend in droughts, floods, or
hurricanes
The increasing normalized
trends in the U.S. were evident in convective storms, winter storms, flooding events and high temperature - related losses, and were almost statistically significant for
hurricanes at the conventional 95 percent confidence level.3 In view of data like this, it's very hard to accept Pielke's confident assertion that «[n] o matter what President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron
say, recent costly disasters are not part of a
trend driven by climate change.»
So, just for clarification, are you
saying that there is an observable
trend to date in floods, droughts,
hurricanes, tornadoes, extreme heat, extreme cold (the latter two in relation to what would be expected for the period in question)?
Do
hurricane researchers have any models, or direct methods, to measure how active a season may have been in, oh,
say 1705, based on possible long duration climactic
trends?
I would expect to see about one degree C of man - made warming between now and 2100, and believe most of the cries that «we are already seeing catastrophic climate changes» are in fact panics driven by normal natural variation (most supposed
trends,
say in
hurricanes or tornadoes or heat waves, can't actually be found when one looks at the official data).