Paleoclimatology; seasonal to millennial
scale changes in ocean / atmosphere interactions and teleconnections; stable isotope and trace element geochemistry; polar and alpine glaciology
If large
scale changes in the ocean ecology occur because of acidification the model can not reasonably be expected to capture the effects.
The paper he wrote together with Friis - Christensen in which he found a correlation between solar activity and clouds had a «slight» flaw: it ignored that the period of the study coincided with a big El Nino, and that large
scale changes in ocean surface temperature are going to have an effect on cloud formation.
There is high confidence that this has caused large -
scale changes in the ocean, in the cryosphere, and in sea level in the second half of the 20th century.
The available data are insufficient to say if the changes in O2 are caused by natural variability or are trends that are likely to persist in the future, but they do indicate that large -
scale changes in ocean physics influence natural biogeochemical cycles, and thus the cycles of O2 and CO2 are likely to undergo changes if ocean circulation changes persist in the future.
It seems unlikely that low level clouds — especially marine stratocumulous — would not respond to large
scale changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions.
The large
scale changes in ocean and atmosphere are everywhere evident especially in hydrology.
Large -
scale changes in ocean currents like the AMOC «are not unprecedented,» she added.
This in turn helps explain how factors such as fresh water from melting ice or changes in global wind patterns might lead to large -
scale changes in ocean circulation or climate in the future.
Not exact matches
«The study demonstrates a robust century -
scale link between
ocean circulation
changes in the Atlantic basin and rainfall
in the adjacent continents during the past 4,000 years,» said UTIG Director Terry Quinn, a co-author on the study.
«Numerous
changes in climate have been observed at the
scales of continents or
ocean basins.
Changes in ocean salinity, nutrient runoff and other pollution can cause small -
scale bleaching, but scientists say the widespread global bleaching this year is a symptom of unusual
ocean warming.
This
change in ocean chemistry followed a large -
scale ice age known as the Gaskiers glaciation.
The study, published
in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to document fine -
scale changes taking place on the ice shelf that help maintain its natural balance with the surrounding
ocean waters.
He believes that no one has thought of combining the two theories before because it's not an intuitive idea to look at how the effects of
changing patterns of
ocean circulation, which occur on time
scales of thousands of years, would effect global silicate weathering, which
in turn controls global climate on time
scales of 100s of thousands of years.
The working group on coupled biogeochemical cycling and controlling factors dealt with questions regarding the role of plankton diversity, how
ocean biogeochemistry will respond to global
changes on decadal to centennial time
scales, the key biogeochemical links between the
ocean, atmosphere, and climate, and the role of estuaries, shelves, and marginal seas
in the capturing, transformation, and exchange of terrestrial and open - marine material.
Given the obvious concerns for human ecological health —
in terms of climate
change, heavy metal toxification, indoor air quality, air pollution, plastics
in the
oceans, and things like that — there will be a large -
scale trend to buildings that start to act like organisms.
We know, however, that rapid warming of the planet increases the risk of crossing climatic points of no return, possibly setting
in motion large -
scale ocean circulation
changes, the loss of major ice sheets, and species extinctions.
To remove this difference
in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of
change, the authors
scaled the vertical profiles of
ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical
ocean layer) with the global surface air temperature trend of each period.
Millennial -
scale glacial variability versus Holocene stability:
Changes in planktic and benthic foraminifera faunas and
ocean circulation
in the North Atlantic during the last 60,000 years.
«By improving how we simulate the biological pump
in the
ocean, we both improve the model and reveal this unexpected resilience, whereby global -
scale changes to the physical properties of the
ocean have a smaller effect on the biological pump.
New research published this week
in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large -
scale upper -
ocean temperature
changes caused by natural cycles of the
ocean — is a good indicator of regional coastal sea level
changes on these decadal timescales.
On a multi-decadal time
scale the
changes in surface air temperature and
ocean heat down to 700 metres are generally
in phase too.
Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown
ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial
scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature
change that happens to mimic what models give
in response to radiative forcing
changes.
They wrote that their comparisons of sea - level pressures, sea - surface temperatures and land - based air temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation of temperatures by
changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time
scales.»
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence
changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal
scales, and these natural
ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to
changes in solar activity.
«
Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales,» found the Royal Society, a London - based group specializing in scientific research, in a 2011 paper, «[O] nce these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to rec
Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time
scales,» found the Royal Society, a London - based group specializing
in scientific research,
in a 2011 paper, «[O] nce these
changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the
ocean to rec
ocean to recover.
On shorter time
scales, however,
changes in heat storage (i.e.,
ocean heat uptake or release) can affect global mean temperature.
Examination of the geographical distribution of the differences
in 0 to 700 m heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads shows that the pattern of heat content
change has spatial
scales of entire
ocean basins and is also found
in similar analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
Observed
changes in ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global
scale, and
in individual
ocean basins.
The record numbers of stranded marine mammals we've seen
in recent years indicates there is an urgent need for more science to help us all better understand how large -
scale human impacts, such as climate
change, overfishing and pollution, may be affecting the health of these animals and their
ocean environment.
At the Paris meeting, nearly 2,000 participants, from countries on all continents and at all levels of development, flowed through dozens of sessions examining an array of policies and actions at all
scales that could limit our influence on the atmosphere and
oceans and limit risks that
changes in the climate will derail human progress.
[Response: Here's a simple back - of - envelope consideration for the future: if the Greenland ice sheet melts completely over the next ~ 1,000 years (Jim Hansen argues
in the current Climatic
Change that the time
scale could be centuries), this would contribute an average flux of ~ 0.1 Sv of freshwater to the surrounding
ocean.
It is quite interesting that on annual time -
scales, quite rapid
changes in ocean heat storage can be observed down past 700 meters, as pointed out by the Willis paper reference.
I have no estimates but with all the inertia
in the system (
Ocean and Air), and with
changes taken place
in these systems (transient constraints)-RRB-, a transient response will likely be on the higher estimate
scale.
Because the drains out of the various bathtubs involved
in the climate — atmospheric concentrations, the heat balance of the surface and
oceans, ice sheet accumulations, and thermal expansion of the
oceans — are small and slow, the emissions we generate
in the next few decades will lead to
changes that, on any time
scale we can contemplate, are irreversible.
Connell, Sean; Kroeker, Kristy; Fabricius, Katharina; Kline, David; Russell, Bayden We explore how
ocean acidification combines with complex environmental
changes across a number of
scales, highlight the multiplicity of factors and complexities that cause variation, and raise awareness of CO2 as a resource whose
change in availability could have wide ranging community consequences beyond its direct effects.
For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for
ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal
scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics,
changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.
One idea is that this is related to PDO and how slight
changes in the earth's rotation rate can set
in motion large -
scale upwellings
in the
ocean that reverse as the rotation accelerates and decelerates.
Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown
ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial
scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature
change that happens to mimic what models give
in response to radiative forcing
changes.
C is not constant for the dT» / dt equation to apply because heat penetrates through different parts of the climate system (different depths of the
ocean in particular) over different time
scales (also, if T» is supposed to be at some reference location or the global average at some vertical level, T» at other locations will vary; C will have to be an effective C value, the heat per unit
change in the T» at the location (s) where T» occurs)
While rereading the
ocean heat content
changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease
in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time -
scales.»
Climate
change, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and pollution
in its many forms are fundamentally altering the chemistry of the
ocean, often on a global
scale and,
in some cases, at rates greatly exceeding those
in the historical and recent geological record.
La Nina / PDO is a perfect example where
changes in ocean currents /
ocean upwelling affect heat transfer between the phases of the system (and cool the air)-- on a human time
scale.
This suggests that the associated
changes in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and
in the large -
scale deposition of wind - borne iron
in the Southern
Ocean had limited impact on CO2.
On decadal and longer time
scales, global mean sea level
change results from two major processes, mostly related to recent climate
change, that alter the volume of water
in the global
ocean: i) thermal expansion (Section 5.5.3), and ii) the exchange of water between
oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets, other land water reservoirs - including through anthropogenic
change in land hydrology, and the atmosphere; Section 5.5.5).
Changes in the ocean can cause dramatic changes to climate and weather patterns on a global
Changes in the
ocean can cause dramatic
changes to climate and weather patterns on a global
changes to climate and weather patterns on a global
scale.
So if there were, say, a decadal -
scale 1 % -2 % reduction
in cloud cover that allowed more SW radiation to penetrate into the
ocean (as has been observed since the 1980s), do you think this would have an impact of greater magnitude on the heat
in the
oceans than a
change of, say, +10 ppm (0.00001)
in the atmospheric CO2 concentration?
Both are at different time
scales, where any (theoretical) influence of CO2 need to
change the
ocean temperatures over a sufficient long period (10 - 30 years), to be visible
in the statistics.
Temperatures measured by the ARGO floats and the XBTs before them are rising
in the raw data, and the
ocean heat content (OHC) is simply observed temperature
change scaled by the thermal mass of the
ocean layer
in question - not some kind of complex model.