Sentences with phrase «scale regional climate models»

The analysis uses methods that have already been peer - reviewed, including examining the change in occurrence of such extreme rains in the historical record and in climate models, as well as using finer - scale regional climate models to compare the current climate to one without warming.

Not exact matches

Better predictions would require improved climate - measurement tools, more sophisticated climate models that work on regional scales, and a better organized system to integrate all the data, the report concludes.

«This new high - resolution climate model is able to simulate regional - scale precipitation with considerably improved accuracy compared to previous generation models,» said Tom Delworth, a research scientist at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., who helped develop the new model and is co-author of the paper.

But the critical coastal process, which actually generates more of the deep water, occurs on smaller scales and is only captured in high - resolution regional climate models, Knudson said.

Those findings will be integrated into an atmospheric model that will assess the implications of the findings on local and regional climate scales.

Scientists are involved in the evaluation of global - scale climate models, regional studies of the coupled atmosphere / ocean / ice systems, regional severe weather detection and prediction, measuring the local and global impact of the aerosols and pollutants, detecting lightning from space and the general development of remotely - sensed data bases.

January 2004: «Directions for Climate Research» Here, ExxonMobil outlines areas where it deemed more research was necessary, such as «natural climate variability, ocean currents and heat transfer, the hydrological cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict changes on a regional and local scale.Climate Research» Here, ExxonMobil outlines areas where it deemed more research was necessary, such as «natural climate variability, ocean currents and heat transfer, the hydrological cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict changes on a regional and local scale.climate variability, ocean currents and heat transfer, the hydrological cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict changes on a regional and local scale.climate models to predict changes on a regional and local scale.»

What's Next: PNNL scientists are using a regional model at a much finer scale than conventional climate models to understand the processes that determine the time - scales of MJO and the roles of various types of clouds in its energy cycle.

These programs focus on climate, aerosol and cloud physics; global and regional scale modeling; integrated assessment of global change; and complex regional meteorology and chemistry.

He has had a central role in PNNL's global aerosol, chemistry, and climate modeling, and in modeling studies of aerosols and cloud - aerosol interactions at local and regional scales.

High - resolution simulations are being performed that resolve the local and regional variations of particulate characteristics to obtain a better understanding of important aerosol processes that need to be incorporated into larger - scale climate models.

Our climate forcing models account for 18 — 88 % (ave = 0.60) of the annual variability at the local scale, and 66 — 77 % (ave = 0.71) at the regional scale when nesting data from 1954 — 2009 are considered (Table S1).

Within the integrated Earth system science paradigm, our major research thrusts include the physics and chemistry of aerosols, clouds and precipitation; integrating our understanding of climate, energy, and other human and natural systems through the development and application of models that span a wide range of spatial scales; and determining the impacts of and informing responses to climate and other global and regional environmental changes.

Concerning climate - change forecasting, we can not expect that increased computer power and improved climate models will in the future «give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales».

And of course there's still substantial uncertainty in climate models at the regional scale in war - prone places (again, a prime example is the set of countries along the southern fringe of the Sahara Desert, where models still clash on which areas will grow drier or wetter; see my Somalia posts.)

We quantify sea - level commitment in the baseline case by building on Levermann et al. (10), who used physical simulations to model the SLR within a 2,000 - y envelope as the sum of the contributions of (i) ocean thermal expansion, based on six coupled climate models; (ii) mountain glacier and ice cap melting, based on surface mass balance and simplified ice dynamic models; (iii) Greenland ice sheet decay, based on a coupled regional climate model and ice sheet dynamic model; and (iv) Antarctic ice sheet decay, based on a continental - scale model parameterizing grounding line ice flux in relation to temperature.

Finally, simulations having finer spatial detail (i.e., «downscaled» climate model projections) do not necessarily have greater accuracy than coarser - resolution simulations; they add contextual detail related to factors such as regional topography and coastlines but may still retain the same basic climatic features simulated at larger scales.

Can the models provide skillful predictions of changes in regional climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales?»

This is one of the more challenging aspects of modeling of the climate system because precipitation involves not only large - scale processes that are well - resolved by models but also small - scale process, such as convection, that must be parameterized in the current generation of global and regional climate models.

Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting regional and local climate change and variability on multi-decadal time scales.

Climate models are also used on regional scales in attempts to figure out way climate models don't perform well on regional Climate models are also used on regional scales in attempts to figure out way climate models don't perform well on regional climate models don't perform well on regional scales.

By putting models through their paces in an all - water world, scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory found highly scale - sensitive issues in regional climate modeling.

«This new high - resolution climate model is able to simulate regional - scale precipitation with considerably improved accuracy compared [continue reading...]

They can't even predict the next decade, much less ten decades; despite tuning they only poorly replicate the historical climate; their equations can't be shown to converge; the number of tunable parameters is far too large for comfort; they show absolutely no skill at regional scales; their results for things they are not tuned to replicate (e.g. rainfall) are abysmal — in short they are glorified Tinkertoy ™ models which have one common characteristic... they don't work well.

Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varClimate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varclimate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.

Part of this is a resolution issue, but the more important issue is the modes of natural internal variability, which the climate models do a so - so job on in a large - scale sense, but not in translating the impacts to a regional level.

David, I don't think climate models are very useful for the regional scale applications of relevance for hydrological applications.

While regional climate downscaling yields higher spatial resolution, the downscaling is strongly dependent on the lateral boundary conditions and the methods used to constrain the regional climate model variables to the coarser spatial scale information from the parent global models.

There are numerous studies where regional climate model studies have increased our understanding of the mechanism of the climate system acting on a regional scale.

To present regional multi-decadal climate projections to the impact communities as part of their driving forces and boundary conditions (for their models and process studies), when there is NO skill on this time scale at predicting changes in climate statistics, is a serious misleading application of the scientific method.

These two projects and cooperative partners will improve sea ice observation and modelling on regional and local scale as well as support to climate research in the Polar Regions.

Roger states that one can not consider climate model predictions (his type 4) at the regional scale when their predictive skill in hindcast mode is not demonstrated.

«We do argue, however, that regional climate models can provide useful information about climate change as long as there is some value in the large - scale infor ¬ mation provided by the multimodel GCM ensembles.

My bottom line is that while the global climate models, when run with added CO2 and other greenhouse gases, show that this is a warming effect, they are inadequate tools to assess the consequences of these human climate forcings on the regional and local scale.

The growing interest in GCM performance at regional scales, rather than global, has come from at least two different directions: the climate modelling community and the climate change adaptation community.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

The inability of global climate models to match the timing or placement of short - term or regional precipitation patterns such as the West African monsoon may be alleviated by «downscaling» to use smaller scale climate models with increased area resolution.

The mechanics of the models produce regional scale results, but, until the multi-decadal regional predictions of changes in climate statistics can be shown to be skilful, the added spatial resolution provides an erroneous illusion of skill.

Probably the stronger demand for regional scale information from climate models is coming from the climate change adaptation community.

The reasons for the regional differences in historical scaled - interannual and future 30 - year trend regressions are unclear, since as noted above the model's interannual NAO variability does not appear to be affected by climate change between 1850 and 2045.

NorACIA have both used the facts from the IPCC and local data and scaled down global climate models to regional effects.»

In terms of longer timescales (decadal to century), once the focus becomes regional rather than global, historical and paleo data becomes more useful than global climate model simulations (no matter what type of «right - scaling» methods are attempted).

Analyses of tide gauge and altimetry data by Vinogradov and Ponte (2011), which indicated the presence of considerably small spatial scale variability in annual mean sea level over many coastal regions, are an important factor for understanding the uncertainties in regional sea - level simulations and projections at sub-decadal time scales in coarse - resolution climate models that are also discussed in Chapter 13.

Methodological advances since the TAR have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., Wood et al., 2004), the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al., 2003; Shabalova et al., 2003; Andreasson et al., 2004; Meleshko et al., 2004; Payne et al., 2004; Kay et al., 2006b; Fowler et al., 2007; Graham et al., 2007a, b; Prudhomme and Davies, 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al., 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell, 2005).

But running point scale intercomparisons of the sort Koutsoyiannis did tells you little about the validity of the model with respect to the purpose for which it is designed; but does underline the limits of global models for regional climate work.

Key remaining uncertainties relate to the precise magnitude and nature of changes at global, and particularly regional, scales, and especially for extreme events and our ability to simulate and attribute such changes using climate models.

The most critical shortcomings of the assessment are the attempt to extrapolate global - scale projections down to regional and sub-regional scales and to use two models which provide divergent projections for key climate elements.»

Second, nearly every impact of importance is driven by what is liable to happen to the climate on the regional to local scale, but it is well known that current global - scale models have limited ability to simulate climate effects as this degree of spatial resolution.

One approach to this problem is «downscaling,» a procedure in which climate changes in large - scale atmosphere and ocean conditions predicted by a global model are used as input to a fine - scale regional model that does resolve tropical cyclones.

The climate models got scores far worse than a random walk, indicating a complete failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales.