Its primary usefulness is as an indicator of global or large
scale regional temperature changes.
Not exact matches
New research published this week in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large -
scale upper - ocean
temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of
regional coastal sea level
changes on these decadal timescales.
The attribution of the term at
regional scales is complicated by significant
regional variations in
temperature changes due to the the influence of modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino / Southern Oscillation.
At the hemispheric - mean
scale, the «Little Ice Age» is only a moderate cooling because larger offsetting
regional patterns of
temperature change (both warm and cold) tend to cancel in a hemispheric or global mean.
The new research is a
regional climate study of historical sea level pressures, winds and
temperatures over the eastern Pacific Ocean and draws no conclusions about climate
change on a global
scale.
-- Projected precipitation and
temperature changes imply
changes in floods, although overall there is low confidence at the global
scale regarding climate - driven
changes in magnitude or frequency of river - related flooding, due to limited evidence and because the causes of
regional changes are complex.
That is,
changes to the system are more clearly discerned in the global mean
temperature than at a
regional level, mainly because the noisy «weather» component increases as you go to smaller
scales.
While the anomalous nature of recent trends in global average
temperature is often highlighted in discussions of climate
change,
changes at
regional scales have potentially greater societal significance.
They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode,
changes in climate statistics on the
regional scale, and even in terms of the global average surface
temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.
This section documents
regional changes and slow fluctuations in atmospheric circulation over past decades, and demonstrates that these are consistent with large -
scale changes in other variables, especially
temperature and precipitation.
On a
regional scale, these parameters strongly impact on weather and climate in Europe, determining precipitation patterns and strengths, as well as
changes in
temperature and wind patterns.
To have the ability to constrain future climate projections, they would ideally have strong connections with one or several aspects of climate
change: climate sensitivity, large -
scale patterns of climate
change (inter-hemispheric symmetry, polar amplification, vertical patterns of
temperature change, land - sea contrasts),
regional patterns or transient aspects of climate
change.
Lower case a-h refer to how the literature was addressed in terms of up / downscaling (a — clearly defined global impact for a specific ΔT against a specific baseline, upscaling not necessary; b — clearly defined
regional impact at a specific
regional ΔT where no GCM used; c — clearly defined
regional impact as a result of specific GCM scenarios but study only used the
regional ΔT; d — as c but impacts also the result of
regional precipitation
changes; e — as b but impacts also the result of
regional precipitation
change; f —
regional temperature change is off -
scale for upscaling with available GCM patterns to 2100, in which case upscaling is, where possible, approximated by using Figures 10.5 and 10.8 from Meehl et al., 2007; g — studies which estimate the range of possible outcomes in a given location or region considering a multi-model ensemble linked to a global
temperature change.
Overall, the pattern -
scaled temperature changes in the high - end and non-high-end models are similar over much of the globe, but there are some
regional differences, indicating that the
regional response of the high - end and non-high-end models to climate
change is not completely identical.
These range from simple averaging of
regional data and
scaling of the resulting series so that its mean and standard deviation match those of the observed record over some period of overlap (Jones et al., 1998; Crowley and Lowery, 2000), to complex climate field reconstruction, where large -
scale modes of spatial climate variability are linked to patterns of variability in the proxy network via a multivariate transfer function that explicitly provides estimates of the spatio - temporal
changes in past
temperatures, and from which large -
scale average
temperature changes are derived by averaging the climate estimates across the required region (Mann et al., 1998; Rutherford et al., 2003, 2005).
Furthermore, by homogenizing the entire ocean into a single metric, they miss important nuances of local and
regional scale redox
changes that might reflect the activity of climatic feedback processes, such as weathering, ocean circulation
change, or
temperature change.