The ENSO is the dominant mode of global -
scale variability on interannual time scales although there have been times when it is less apparent.
Role of small -
scale variability on climate scales.
The dominant mode of global -
scale variability on interannual time scales is ENSO, although there have been times when it is less apparent.
Not exact matches
Specifically designed to have two generous sizes, the Thirsties Duo All In One Diaper offers the same
variability as a one size diaper system, as well as a more comfortable, snugger, leakproof fit for babies
on both sides of the size
scale; Thirsties will fit a tiny newborn, as well as a much larger, potty training Toddler.
This
variability from site to site and state to state inspired the research team to conduct this study
on a much larger
scale.
A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate
variability on decadal time
scales.
In 1964, the Norwegian climate researcher Jacob Bjerknes postulated different causes of climate
variability on different time
scales.
Lozier (p. 1507) discusses how recent studies have challenged our view of large -
scale ocean circulation as a simple conveyor belt, by revealing a more complex and nuanced system that reflects the effects of ocean eddies and surface atmospheric winds
on the structure and
variability of the ocean's overturning.
However, the researchers also considered another possibility: If forests regenerate as mosaics of suitable trees
on the landscape (based
on size and density), though individual trees may come under attack by bark beetles, this
variability might also protect the forest from broad -
scale outbreaks.
However,
on a global
scale variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations, the research showed.
«When we see
variability on such a large
scale, we should worry that some people are not getting the best, most appropriate treatment.»
By using satellites, biologists are now able to map which areas are most sensitive to climate
variability on a global
scale.
On this latter scale teleconnections manifest as a response of middle - latitude weather to the dominant modes of variability of the tropics (the Madden - Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillations, which similar to El Niño and La Niña characterize variations of climate but on shorter time scales
On this latter
scale teleconnections manifest as a response of middle - latitude weather to the dominant modes of
variability of the tropics (the Madden - Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillations, which similar to El Niño and La Niña characterize variations of climate but
on shorter time scales
on shorter time
scales).
Bamzai, A.S., 2003: Relationship between snow cover
variability and Arctic Oscillation Index
on a hierarchy of time
scales.
The CTD sections show that the deeper layers are also warmer and slightly saltier and the observed sea level can be explained by steric expansion over the upper 2000 m. ENSO
variability impacts
on the northern part of the section, and a simple Sverdrup transport model shows how large -
scale changes in the wind forcing, related to the Southern Annular Mode, may contribute to the deeper warming to the south.
The blue colour
on the left - hand side shows the natural
variability periods, the yellow = early 20th century, red = late 20th century, and the grey and black denote data from SODA and HadlSST (
scaled with NCEP / NCAR SAT) respectively.
Monitoring, understanding, and predicting oceanic variations associated with natural climate
variability and human - induced changes, and assessing the related roles of the ocean
on multiple spatial - temporal
scales.
January 2004: «Directions for Climate Research» Here, ExxonMobil outlines areas where it deemed more research was necessary, such as «natural climate
variability, ocean currents and heat transfer, the hydrological cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict changes
on a regional and local
scale.»
On decadal time
scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large -
scale patterns of climate
variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
SPARC, together with others in the WCRP community, focuses
on understanding atmospheric dynamics and climate
variability to provide better climate predictions
on scales from seasonal all the way to centennial.
The data is
on atmospheric absorption during occultations, indicating short time
scale variability.
Jiacan has worked
on several projects
on climate dynamics, including the response of large -
scale circulations in the warming climate, its effects
on regional weather patterns and extreme events, tropical influence
on mid-latitude weather, and dynamical mechanisms of sub-seasonal
variability of mid-latitude jet streams.
The upper tail is particularly long in studies using diagnostics based
on large -
scale mean data because separation of the greenhouse gas response from that to aerosols or climate
variability is more difficult with such diagnostics (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003).
The SAM contributes a significant proportion of SH mid-latitude circulation
variability on many time
scales (Hartmann and Lo, 1998; Kidson, 1999; Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Baldwin, 2001).
At this time the E-W sea surface temperature gradients in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans increased [29], [31] intensifying the E-W moisture transport in the tropics, which greatly increased rainfall
variability both
on a precession and an ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) time -
scales.
Observed changes in ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate
variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both
on a global
scale, and in individual ocean basins.
However, we must (1) compare the solar forcing with the net of other forcings, which enhances the importance of solar change, because the net forcing is smaller than the GHG forcing, and (2) consider forcing changes
on longer time
scales, which greatly diminishes the importance of solar change, because solar
variability is mainly oscillatory.
For breeds without a small or decreasing population size, it would be beneficial for Kennel Clubs worldwide to impose limitations
on the number of offspring per stud, thus reducing the popular sire effect and promoting increased genetic
variability on a population - wide
scale.
The interactions between the subsystems thus give rise to climate
variability on all time
scales.»
It is, however, the
variability on large
scales influenced by interactions of the atmosphere with other components of the climate system that is predictable.
Another interesting question concerning a new Maunder Minimum would be the impacts
on decadal -
scale prediction, where both internal
variability and changes in TSI are competitive with changing greenhouse gases.
This example highlights the much greater natural
variability on small
scales which makes detection of the small systematic signal, such as that might arise from enhanced greenhouse effect, much more difficult to achieve
on regional
scales.
What I notice is that consistent corrections to the model, and attention to the behavior of the individual ensemble members brings model projections and the long extrapolation into agreement (# 44) while short extrapolations probably should not be attacked based
on possible low frequency
variability owing to a
scale mismatch.
Reliable data
on decadal
variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the
scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index
on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)
The short - term
variability of my account balance also has completely different reasons (e.g. purchase of a new stereo or a tax rebate) than the longer - term evolution (ruled by small but persistent changes in regular items like salary, housing cost...) so when you're looking for a linkage, you must first assess
on what time
scale you need to be looking.
For
variability on a long time
scale, the effect is generally constant over a short time period (such as Milankovitch cycles).
For instance, an influential analysis by Hawking & Sutton (2009)(link to figures) has suggested that internal climate
variability account for only about 20 % of the variance over the British isles
on a 50 - year time
scale.
They have not analyzed the first year of data yet, but in my lab we have looked at results from a similar set of moorings at 15N (Uwe Send's work) and find rather significant
variability on weekly to monthly time
scales (but no trend over the 4 years of data).
Patterns of
variability that don't match the predicted fingerprints from the examined drivers (the «residuals») can be large — especially
on short - time
scales, and look in most cases like the modes of internal
variability that we've been used to; ENSO / PDO, the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation etc..
Most of the surface temperature
variability is
on the diurnal (day - night) time
scale.
One can see a number of basic flaws here; the complete lack of appreciation of the importance of natural
variability on short time
scales, the common but erroneous belief that any attribution of past climate change to solar or other forcing means that CO2 has no radiative effect, and a hopeless lack of familiarity of the basic science of detection and attribution.
Even if it were real physical
variability, at that short time
scale I would not expect it to be linked to global temperature in the way that I expect this link
on longer time
scales.
She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural
variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations
on decadal to century time
scales.»
Figure 1.4 http://cybele.bu.edu/courses/gg312fall02/chap01/figures/figure1.4.gif shows the natural
variability of the annual mean surface temperature
on several different spatial
scales from a climate model simulation for 200 years.
It is these uppermost few percent of events that are important, and models and theory are nearly unanimous now that they are and will continue to increase, notwithstanding natural climate
variability on shorter time
scales (as much as 20 years).»
AR5 section 9.5.3 concludes «Nevertheless, the lines of evidence above suggest with high confidence that models reproduce global and NH temperature
variability on a wide range of time
scales.»
The study demonstrates the importance of understanding how climate
variability on a regional
scale may at least temporarily obscure larger forces acting
on the global climate system.
We explicitly agree (final paragraph of main article) that the climate has historically shown significant
variability on all time
scales.
Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and oceanic storage of heat, not
on the type of multi-decadal time
scale variability we are discussing here.
That means that the potential for natural
variability to be more dominant
on shorter time
scales is high — and indeed, Connolley and Bracegirdle show a lot of variance in the model output
on those time
scales.