The decadal -
scale variability reflected in the temperature reconstruction from tree rings may well be superimposed over this warmer baseline, but the warmth still would not likely match the observed average maximum temperatures over the past decade (17.54 °C mean maximum average for 1999 — 2008, Fort Valley, AZ, Western Regional Climate Center)(Table S1).
Not exact matches
Lozier (p. 1507) discusses how recent studies have challenged our view of large -
scale ocean circulation as a simple conveyor belt, by revealing a more complex and nuanced system that
reflects the effects of ocean eddies and surface atmospheric winds on the structure and
variability of the ocean's overturning.
As I indicated in an earlier blog, the natural
variability at decadal time
scales hinders the validation of any projection against observations, as these observations
reflect just one possible trend.
BartH notes that «At relatively short time
scales (say, a couple of decades), natural
variability will dominate over systematic climate change, and there is more added value to expect from ensuring that the projections
reflect natural
variability adequately than to assess the degree to which the background climate changes.»
Downcore variations in bulk sedimentary δ15N appear to
reflect century -
scale variability in basin ventilation, attributed to changes in oceanographic conditions related to century -
scale fluctuations in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).