For those curious about the pronounced dips in the future scenarios here they are responses to Pinatubo -
scale volcanic eruptions that are assumed to occur at a reasonable frequency over the course of the next century.
Do you know about, or can you refer me to someone who may know about, the climate effects of the other Tambora -
scale volcanic eruption (VEI = 7) of the last millenium — from Changbaishan (Baitoushan) on the China - NKorea border (42oN latitude) sometime between 960-1025 AD?
Not exact matches
In 1815, the Indonesian volcano Tambora propelled more ash and
volcanic gases into the atmosphere than any other
eruption in history and resulted in significant atmospheric cooling on a global
scale, much like Krakatau a few decades later.
The volume of ash deposited, and the estimated height of the
eruption plume (43 kilometers above sea level) put the
eruption's magnitude at a minimum of 7 on the
volcanic explosivity index (which has a
scale of 1 to 8)-- making it one of the largest known in the Holocene.
NATURAL catastrophes such as asteroid impacts, massive
volcanic eruptions or large -
scale wildfires would have periodically plunged our planet into abnormal darkness.
For the first time, this study allowed researchers to analyse the effects of the climate change on the forest nutrient cycles, and states that Pyrenean forests can register these episodes chemical mark at a global
scale (for instance,
volcanic eruptions in remote areas) and the effects of gas emissions into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution.
My perspective is thus that on the basin - wide
scale there is no chance that these
volcanic eruptions / explosions had anything to do with changes in ice cover, for the reasons described by Peter Winsor et al..
Next point, changes in
volcanic activity can affect decadal and century -
scale temperatures due to the random occurence of
eruptions of the right sort (though I don't think you dispute that).
Even during the PETM, it took extended
volcanic eruptions on a massive
scale that were extensive but not of the kind to eject significant stratospheric sulfates so as to cause cooling.
The
Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is logarithmic and so the
eruptions that are on a
scale of 5 or 6 are the only ones that really matter and there have only been at most a dozen of those in the past 130 years.
Add to that
scaled monthly sunspot data to introduce the 0.1 deg C variations is surface temperature resulting from the solar cycle and add
scaled monthly Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depth data for dips and rebounds due to
volcanic eruptions, and global surface temperature anomalies can be reproduced quite well.
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the global climate system, such as changes in global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on large spatial
scales; and how the climate responds to large -
scale forcing, like a large
volcanic eruption.
The interannual variability in the individual simulations that is evident in Figure 9.5 suggests that current models generally simulate large -
scale natural internal variability quite well, and also capture the cooling associated with
volcanic eruptions on shorter time
scales.
Our common experience with hurricanes, tornadoes thunderstorms, blizzards, floods, tsunamis, and
volcanic eruptions should lead to the common sense conclusion that weather and climate are controlled by natural laws on an enormous
scale that dwarfs human activity.
Our results show that repeated clusters of
volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global
scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed - layer oceanic heat content.
The glacial - interglacial cycles are an example of tight coupling between climate and the carbon cycle over long time
scales, but there is also clear evidence of the carbon cycle responding to short - term climatic anomalies such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (Rayner et al., 1999; Bousquet et al., 2000; C. Jones et al., 2001; Lintner, 2002; Russell and Wallace, 2004) and the climate perturbation arising from the Mt. Pinatubo
volcanic eruption (Jones and Cox, 2001a; Lucht et al., 2002; Angert et al., 2004).
· It will require a large -
scale vertical
eruption that injects
volcanic dust into the stratosphere.
Lindenthal, Langmann, Patsch, Lorkowski Hort (2013) «The ocean response to
volcanic iron fertilisation after the
eruption of Kasatochi volcano: a regional -
scale biogeochemical ocean modelstudy.
-- CO2 was 1200 - 1800 ppm (mostly
volcanic — Cretaceous
eruptions were «truly massive in
scale and persisted for thousands of years.»)
Then throw in massive
volcanic eruptions and huge continent wide brush fires caused by volcanoes or meteor showers (both theories I have seen in the literature) and you have many events that could cause climate disruption on a large
scale.
There is very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global -
scale annual mean surface temperature increase over the historical period, including the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large
volcanic eruptions...