Sentences with phrase «scenarios as probability»

Tolerance bands are established chronologically at the 25th and 75th percentile of these cumulative return scenarios as probability constraints.

Not exact matches

A break of any of these support or resistance levels is likely to occur as a result of a fundamental rerelease, so to indicate which of the two scenarios (long or short) is the higher probability the week's data schedule should be considered.

They run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for each of many initial withdrawal rate scenarios, with probability of success defined as the percentage of runs not exhausting the portfolio before the end of a specified retirement period.

Historically, this suggests an extended period of range bound trading as the highest probability long - term scenario in my view.

That reflects the balance of probabilities as assessed by the Political Studies Association, a group of unspeakably clever academics who suggest the most likely scenario is bad news for Cameron.

They concluded that, based on a median value across all scenarios, there's a high probability of a 30 percent decline in the global population of polar bears over the next three to four decades, which supports listing the species as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List.

In two out of these three equally likely scenarios, the double - blue card is the one in his hand, so the probability is twice as great that the other side is blue.

Look - ahead simulators would have identified the line as having a higher - than - normal probability of failure, and self - conscious software along the grid and in control centers would have run failure scenarios to determine the ideal corrective response.

In the scenario I ran, a woman needed two extra first - author publications or seven extra middle - author publications to reach the same probability of becoming a PI as a man with an otherwise identical record.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

Probability distributions of sea - level change in the year 2100, relative to 2006, in four Scandinavian capitals on the Baltic Sea under the «business - as - usual» (RCP8.5) climate scenario.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long - term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near - term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

Back to our example... you have found a great looking pin bar strategy on the daily chart, now you must find the safest place to put your stop loss so that the probability of it getting hit is as low as possible, you want to give the trade as much room as possible to work out while still maximizing your risk to reward scenario.

As a result, we will be increasing the probability on our «Rise in global protectionism» scenario which delivers a more stagflationary [1] outcome for the world economy than the baseline forecast.

As an investor, the way I try to get around this problem is to predict, at a minimum, an upside, central case and downside scenario for a business, and attach probabilities to each of these scenarios.

To properly conceptualize the future as an investor, you need to create different scenarios and assign subjective probabilities to them.

35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having an equal probability of occurrence

No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence

Recall that in their 2001 Third Assessment Report, the IPCC gives a range of temperature increase between 1990 and 2100 of 1.4 and 5.8 ºC based upon the simulated output from 7 different climate models run under 35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having an equal probability of occurrence.

As you point out, the IPCC does not explicitly state that the SRES scenarios all are of equal likelihood, but, given what they do tell us (as you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributedAs you point out, the IPCC does not explicitly state that the SRES scenarios all are of equal likelihood, but, given what they do tell us (as you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributedas you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributedas to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributed).

But more sophisticated interpretations of the ensembles can be done, such as clustering to assess the probability of different scenarios and threshold exceedences.

Response: IPCC did not attach any probabilities to any of the scenarios (which I think was probably a mistake, as Steve Schneider has also argued).

And for the high RCP8.5 scenario, it continues to decline throughout the 22nd and 23rd centuries with a considerable probability of collapse (indicated as a 90 % reduction).

The probability of an ice - free Arctic summer from 2020 - 2100 under a range of future scenarios including 1.5 C (black), 1.5 C with temperature overshoot (orange), 2C (red), moderate emissions (RCP4.5; purple) and «business as usual» emissions (RCP8.5; blue).

He referred to this as a low probability, high cost scenario.

Each institution has developed one core scenario that would be compatible with limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 2 °C by 2100 with a probability of 66 %, as a way of contributing to the «well below 2 °C» target of the Paris Agreement.

Similiarly, if possibility theory admits that evidence can make an event «more likely», then the requirement to be able to rank scenario classes as more or less likely than each other leads to something that looks a lot like probability in the end, and the debates about whether a risk justifies action should depend on how one evaluates the evidence, and one's aversion to risk, rather than the terminology used to quantify risk (or not).

Response: As discussed elsewhere on the site, the IPCC scenarios do not come with probabilities attached.

The statistics associated with scenarios from the literature do not imply probability of occurrence (e.g., the frequency distribution of the scenarios may be influenced by the use of IS92a as a reference for many subsequent studies).

Generally speaking, when a person commences a lawsuit as a result of their injuries, whether they result from a motor vehicle accident as in the above scenario, or by some other means like a slip and fall, the injured person is responsible for proving, on a «balance of probabilities», that the defendant negligently caused the accident which injured them.