In the light of this analysis, then, my own
scenario is cautiously hopeful, depending on (1) whether a creative minority of dreamers and doers
with visions of a new life - fulfilling social order really emerges in strength, (2) the alliances that can be worked out
with blacks, the poor, and other minorities now excluded from major social benefits, (3) the extent to which the populist idealism of the lower middle classes and working
people generally favoring the extension of rights and equality to the «
little man» everywhere wins out over the reactionary fears and prejudices which establishment elites and opportunist politicians are all too willing to exploit, and (4) what takes place at the center of the political spectrum itself under the pressure of events and in response to challenges to the established system from militant seekers of change.
Paul D... As a part - time alarmist I would answer that
with a
little bit of extrapolation added to some warnings of climate scientists I guess the worst case
scenario at least includes the total collapse of the WAIS, creating tsunamis at least all over the Pacific rim, the subsequent sea level rise of c. 7m will destroy most of the remaining harbours, communication centers near coasts, next up would be the melting of the collapsed ice in the southern ocean altering the climate of the entire southern hemisphere, making it near - impossible to guess what areas are good for similar agriculture as before, leading to massive movements of
people.
What is the value of an integrated assessment model that combines highly unlikely physical
scenarios with an economic model that does economic calculations based on numbers that are throughout pure guesswork, and does that furthermore in a way that overemphasizes highly the part of the period on which we know as
little as 19th century
people knew about today?