But critics say that the report in some cases overstated the level of
scientific certainty on the issue or simply got things wrong.
It is even more interesting in the light of Oreskes» claims that
scientific certainty on global warming had been achieved well before 1992:
Exxon tried to block the resolution by telling the Securities and Exchange Commission that the supporting statement for the resolution was false and misleading because «it implies
a scientific certainty on climate change which, in fact, does not exist.»
I think the reason that focus hasn't shifted to mitigation or other options is that skeptics (including the current administration) have set the bar impossibly high, requiring total
scientific certainty on impacts in order to justify costly action.
Not exact matches
It seems to me that the notion that man - made CO2 has a significant effect
on climate change is being disproven with more
certainty, as day by day more hard
scientific evidence is showing that this hypothesis is a delusion.
On 28 October, she told the Boston Chamber of Commerce that Congress needs «to double our investment in
scientific and biomedical research and create more year - to - year
certainty for that funding.»
Within the first paragraph of their review, they state that «women have the right to feel sexual pleasure, and for this reason sexual medicine experts and sexologists must spread
certainties on the biological basis to all women, not hypotheses or personal opinions, and they must use
scientific sexual terminology.»
Until recently, such treatments thrived
on the power of patient lore, not
scientific certainty.
The first approach, the one Price opposed and the one based
on knowledge without wisdom, superficially appeared to be based
on scientific certainty.
Perhaps the
scientific community is still trying to accommodate policy - makers who don't understand the
scientific process by making it their first priority to get closer and closer to absolute
certainty on attributing climate change to human activities.
If we don't recognize that our belief in
scientific progress is a kind of faith, that is because these patterns take
on a sense of
certainty in hindsight.
But if you take the same strategy and follow the reception of uncertainty through the media, such as the CBS broadcast
on «Silent Spring,» and in the President's Science Advisory Committee policy documents, in Carson's testimony before Congress, and in the E.P.A.'s ban
on DDT, you can witness the same strategy to assert ignorance and risk, and use visceral images to transform
scientific uncertainty into a political
certainty.
I suppose,
on reading it again, that you could construe what I said to mean that we should not act if we have full
scientific certainty... but that's obviously not what I meant, because if we have full
scientific certainty (as I pointed out in my examples of seat belts and condoms) we don't need the precautionary principle at all.
If Dr Curry's
scientific position is «there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, therefore we should at least be able to draw some boundaries around them before pushing for a consensus
on certainty» (I hope my paraphrase is close to the mark), then advocating for a change in the process of conducting climate science follows logically.
But few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack
on the
scientific certainty of climate change.
As we have pointed out before, in 1992, the «consensus» was characterised very differently to today, and the UNFCCC agreements proceeded not
on the basis of
scientific evidence and
certainty, but according to the precautionary principle.
Based
on the evidence as it currently exists, it just is not a valid
scientific position to assert with
certainty that human emissions have caused recent changes to the climate, and therefore the policy implications that stem from that.
The former can be said with a great deal of
certainty because it relies
on and a reality of
scientific measurement and the statistical analysis of error bounds.
The whole point of the global warming scare is to take an uncertain and unproven
scientific hypothesis and insist
on it as an absolute
scientific certainty requiring immediate action — which just so happens to be a very specific agenda that aligns perfectly with a certain political outlook.
The Paris agreement to cut anthropogenic CO2 emissions is based
on a precautinary principle declarated in the Rio conference: «Rio Declaration
on Environment and Development, The United Nations Conference
on Environment and Development, Having met at Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992, Princible 15, http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual//Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163» — Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost - effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.
Scientific certainty is just another thing for two people to «debate»
on television.
If you claim that the climate change impacts predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) have not reached a level of
scientific certainty that warrants action, do you agree that climate change impacts predicted by IPCC could be wrong in both directions, potentially leading to even harsher adverse impacts than those predicted?
In the meantime, during the debates about US domestic policy
on climate change that have been taking place for almost thirty years, the US media has reported
on climate issues almost exclusively by focusing
on issues of
scientific certainty about climate change impacts and economic cost to the US economy.
Given the acknowledged uncertainties and limitations expressed in the title, it is hard to believe that the graph showcased in the paper would later become the poster child of
certainty for a
scientific consensus
on global warming — but it would become just that.
Adapting core principles of risk assessment to climate: To date, the approach of climate change assessments has primarily been rooted in communicating relative
scientific certainty and uncertainty around anticipated changes in the physical climate system, along with some basic biophysical impacts that would seem to be generally implied by those climate changes: based, for example,
on general understanding of associations such as those between impacts and weather extremes.
It turns out, in fact, that «
certainty» relates not to the
scientific understanding of the influence of CO2
on natural processes, but the application of the precautionary principle.
It is therefore correct, indeed verging
on compulsory in the
scientific tradition, to be skeptical of those who express
certainty that «the science is settled» and «the debate is over».
'' this WGI Technical Summary and the WGI Summary for Policymakers rely
on two metrics for communicating the degree of
certainty in key findings, which is based
on author teams» evaluations of underlying
scientific understanding:»
The international political response to climate change science to date has been precautionary, not based
on scientific certainty.
Recent arguments dominating the public discussion
on climate change seem to have been about the «
scientific consensus» achieving
certainty, rather than advising caution in the face of doubt.
But
on the other, she claims that
scientific certainty is not a necessary requirement for action
on climate change, and that no such thing exists.
The IF was used
on these threads as an heuristic device to enable understanding of the role of uncertainty in
scientific problems where there are «conflicting
certainties» and expert assessments of confidence levels.
The theme of the conference, «Restoring the
Scientific Method,» acknowledges the fact that claims of scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the scientif
Scientific Method,» acknowledges the fact that claims of
scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the scientif
scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based
on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the
scientificscientific method.
I've been thinking about the PRO-CON FORMAT the media use (which has been discussed earlier), and now think that the format itself is not as bad as the fact that the media have limited the debate between contrarians (who need 99 %, perhaps 101 %
certainty on AGW) and scientists (who require 95 %
certainty, and even with that, bring all their caveats
on screen — as if the
scientific devil's adocates were there with them
on TV).
on the
scientific certainty that CAGW is supported by solid science.
«Few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack
on the
scientific certainty of climate change.
The theme of the conference was «Restoring the
Scientific Method,» and based on the premise that «claims of scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the scientific meth
Scientific Method,» and based
on the premise that «claims of
scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the scientific meth
scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based
on «post-normal science,» which substitutes claims of consensus for the
scientific meth
scientific method.»
Discrediting the expert in her 2014 case whose opinions were not based
on a reasonable degree of
scientific certainty.
In their factum [read full submission] IAVGO and ONIWG argued that
scientific certainty is not required (and in fact definitive
scientific evidence
on work - related causation rarely exists).
In their submission to Supreme Court case addressing issues of causation and Workers Compensation Appeals Tribunal jurisdiction, IAVGO and ONIWG argue that
scientific certainty is not required (and in fact definitive
scientific evidence
on work - related causation rarely exists).
This is because the law requires proof of causation only
on a balance of probabilities, whereas
scientific or medical experts often require a higher degree of
certainty before drawing conclusions
on causation (p. 330).