Scientists should clearly communicate the concept of
scientific uncertainty for a public audience to avoid misinterpretations of scientific confidence.
Yet in an atmosphere of vast economic uncertainty and Republican fear - mongering about government spending, the rhetoric of green jobs has been unable to motivate widespread public support for addressing climate change and has opened the door to predatory attacks from those seeking to exploit
scientific uncertainty for political ends.
Environmental policymakers within the IPCC fear, though, that climate skeptics and industry lobbyists could exploit
these scientific uncertainties for their own purposes.
Not exact matches
This is a familiar dodge - emphasizing
uncertainty about the precise amount of humanity's contribution while ignoring the broad
scientific consensus that human activities are largely responsible
for dangerous warming of our planet and that action is urgently needed before it is too late.
Atty. Zelda Soriano, Legal Counsel
for the Petitioners discussed the grounds on which the appellate court based their favorable decision, which includes the main argument of the petitioners that the field testing is characterized by «serious
scientific uncertainty with regard to its health and environmental effects.»
There isn't a good
scientific body of evidence that someone could pick up their blood PFOA level and say «OK, well this means my risk
for some health outcome is x, y or z,» and scientists can't provide that and this is one of the places where we'll have to say we don't know and there is
uncertainty about that.»
Holt also wrote an editorial in Science on 17 November addressing the
uncertainty of federal support
for scientific research under the new administration and advocating
for better integration of science into policymaking.
But the many
scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room
for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
Cooney himself made 294 edits to the administration's 364 - page Strategic Plan
for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program posted July 24, 2003, «to exaggerate or emphasize
scientific uncertainties or to deemphasize or diminish the importance of the human role in global warming,» and Cooney and the CEQ played a role in eliminating climate change sections in the EPA's draft Report on the Environment as well as its National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report.
«This new USGS research complements ongoing initiatives to conserve the Bay - Delta by providing sound
scientific understanding
for managing this valuable system such that it continues to provide the services we need in the face of climate
uncertainty.»
From the examples chosen a pattern emerges that requires a period of sober reflection by any minister or civil servant involved in the planning of major technological projects,
for far from the comfort of
scientific truth underpinning their decisions, the reality is that the degree of
uncertainty involved would appear to reduce the process to a sophisticated form of gambling, with awesome consequences awaiting a wrong decision.
The debate in the media expresses far less
uncertainty in this issue than is customary
for this level of
scientific inquiry.
Brexit — the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, which the country voted
for in the 23 June national referendum — has plunged the U.K.
scientific community into
uncertainty.
Somewhere in this quagmire of
scientific uncertainty, will lie the future
for the magnificent Thorne Moors.
«Moreover, given budget
uncertainties,... [t] he time, energy, and resources required
for a major structural reorganization are not warranted, especially given that functional integration promises to achieve equivalent
scientific and public health objectives,» he wrote.
The HRT debate reveals that one way to deal with medico -
scientific uncertainty is to shift responsibility
for health «choices» onto the individual.
Rather they laid out a strategy to strengthen the
scientific basis
for the estimates, reduce their
uncertainties, and increase transparency of the process.
The NRC asked the committee to summarize current
scientific information on the temperature record
for the past two millennia, describe the main areas of
uncertainty and how significant they are, describe the principal methodologies used and any problems with these approaches, and explain how central is the debate over the paleoclimate temperature record to the state of
scientific knowledge on global climate change.
Giving statistically accurate and informative assessments of a model's
uncertainty is a daunting task, and an expert's
scientific training
for such an estimation may not always be adequate.
«In the face of natural variability and complexity, the consequences of change in any single factor,
for example greenhouse gas emissions, can not readily be isolated, and prediction becomes difficult...
Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future change.»
Because, despite having this breadth of knowledge within its walls, and
for many years after these climate science programs were run at Exxon, the company has spent years and millings of dollars funding climate deniers and think tanks who attack the
scientific consensus, spreading doubt and
uncertainty.
As research leaders in developing and using models to provide
scientific insights into weather and climate change, Qian and others are striving to understand
uncertainty in systems and modeling to improve projections and help prepare vulnerable regions
for potential climate change impact.
«It's time
for U.S. policy - makers to reflect and decide whether the year - to - year
uncertainty in National Institutes of Health budget and the proposed cuts are in our societal and national best interest,» says Bishr Omary, M.D., Ph.D., senior author of the new data - supported opinion piece and chief
scientific officer of Michigan Medicine, U-M's academic medical center.
Scientific knowledge input into process based models has much improved, reducing
uncertainty of known science
for some components of sea - level rise (e.g. steric changes), but when considering other components (e.g. ice melt from ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution) science is still emerging, and
uncertainties remain high.
In the first post in this series, I critiqued the «naked ape hypothesis of optimal serum 25 (OH) D,» which I believe influences many researchers to interpret
uncertainties in the
scientific literature in a way that is biased towards recommendations
for high intakes of vitamin D that could be harmful to some people, especially without appropriate attention to the nutrient density and balance of the diet, and to the overall context of a healthy diet and lifestyle.
This is a topic that has attracted considerable
scientific interest, 1 2 3 in large part because of
uncertainty regarding whether MUFA or carbohydrate should be substituted
for saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and the desirable quantity of MUFA to include in the diet.
The leaded gas adventurers have profitably polluted the world on a grand scale and, in the process, have provided a model
for the asbestos, tobacco, pesticide and nuclear power industries, and other twentieth - century corporate bad actors,
for evading clear evidence that their products are harmful by hiding behind the mantle of
scientific uncertainty.
Last month, the New York Times reported that Phil Cooney, a former oil industry lobbyist working
for the White House, edited
scientific climate change reports to significantly exaggerate
uncertainty about the science behind global warming.
The measurement
for man's contribution to CO2, expressed as a
scientific measurement (pick your units but they must match the first answer), and that measurement must include an
uncertainty.
All
scientific questions involve some degree of
uncertainties (error bars), and these can only be reduced if one can prove that they are influenced by an external factor («contamination») or if some of the data are not representative
for the study.
and
for more specific relevance and scope: Review of the U.S. Climate Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, «Best Practice Approaches
for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating
Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision making (2007).
No one knows how rapidly this might happen, or what its effect might be on global temperatures, but this
scientific uncertainty is surely cause
for concern and not complacency.
Koenig's careful description of the science and the
uncertainty about what the future holds prompted a public spanking from the Center
for American Progress climate blogger Joe Romm, who charged her with «
scientific reticence» — alluding to NASA scientist James Hansen's paper criticizing sea - level researchers
for being overly cautious in 2007 conclusions about the possible rate of sea rise in this century.
«The nature of the risk from climate change is enormous and using
scientific uncertainty as an excuse
for doing nothing is ethically intolerable,» he writes.
The zone of
uncertainty tends to be larger
for these boundaries, but as
scientific understanding improves, this zone will narrow.
I was hoping
for a comment on where this paper fits in the
scientific consensus, and what kind of
uncertainties are involved.
Tropical cyclones are responsible
for the vast majority of loss of property and life and the level of
scientific uncertainty regarding genesis and intensity of TCs is greater than extratropical, baroclinic storms.
Sometimes on Realclimate we discuss important
scientific uncertainties, and sometimes we try and clarify some subtle point or context, but at other times, we have a little fun in pointing out some of the absurdities that occasionally pass
for serious «science» on the web and in the media.
And you witness dramas about getting attribution probabilities right —
for example, the American Physical Society statement on climate change, which has a few of their members foaming — and you realize that the
scientific community is full of sticklers about getting the
uncertainties right (as they should).
Scientific predictions of climate change
for the next couple centuries, when we already know that CO2 and water vapor will be high, involves much less
uncertainty than prediction of climate change when CO2 and water vapor are low.
In our paper we argued that Carson adapted and adopted
uncertainty from her sources and deliberately used it to provide a site
for public participation in
scientific debates.
The many
scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room
for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
If Dr Curry's
scientific position is «there is a considerable amount of
uncertainty, therefore we should at least be able to draw some boundaries around them before pushing
for a consensus on certainty» (I hope my paraphrase is close to the mark), then advocating
for a change in the process of conducting climate science follows logically.
His point in highlighting that particular chart was to emphasize
scientific uncertainty, an approach Exxon has pursued
for decades.
Professor Curry has recommended that the
scientific consensus - seeking process be abandoned in favour of a more traditional review that presents arguments
for and against, and discusses the
uncertainties.
I have recommended that the
scientific consensus seeking process be abandoned in favor of a more traditional review that presents arguments
for and against, discusses the
uncertainties, and speculates on the known and unknown unknowns.
A key goal of the priority program is to reduce the large
uncertainties in our current understanding of CE impacts on the environment, politics, and society so as to create a
scientific basis
for a responsible approach to the issue CE.
* open up space
for public discussion and argumentation * question the efficacy of proposed policies at achieving desired outcomes and pointing out potential unintended consequences * disclosing the limits of
scientific information and the extent of
uncertainty * As summarized in my NPR interview:
The problem is not a
scientific refusal to acknowledge
uncertainty, it is a lack of policy tools
for dealing with it.
But let's make sure the research is not simply «agenda driven», i.e. to support a political agenda, such as the implementation of a direct or indirect «carbon tax», but real
scientific studies to clear up the many
uncertainties regarding the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic attribution of past climate change,
for example.