This chart, from Gagné et al, shows the area - averaged annual mean
sea ice concentration anomaly between 1950 and 2005.
Probabilistic forecast of September 2010
sea ice concentration anomalies.
Prediction of July 2010
sea ice concentration anomalies in the Hudson Bay region from a statistical model.
The model predicts that large negative
sea ice concentration anomalies (< -40 %) will occur in the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea in September 2016.
For consistency with the idea that wind forcing precedes
sea ice concentration anomalies by ~ 2 months (Yuan and Li 2008), we also computed the PCs of Z850 for JAS and regressed these upon SON Antarctic sea ice and continental temperature anomalies (not shown).
Not exact matches
A statistical forecast using a regression based approach with fall
sea surface temperature
anomalies in the North Atlantic as the main predictor was submitted by Tivy (Figure 3) for
ice concentration anomalies in July in Hudson Bay.
(a, b) Annual - mean
sea ice concentration in the CTL and SW experiments, and (c) SST
anomalies during the last 50 years of the latter simulation.
Using a statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis with fall
sea surface temperature
anomalies in the North Atlantic as the main predictor, Tivy shows below - normal
ice concentrations throughout most of the region (Figure 12), which suggests an earlier - than - normal opening of the shipping season.
The statistical forecast submitted by Tivy for September
ice concentration anomalies in the Beaufort - Chukchi
Sea region is unchanged.
The mean
ice concentration anomaly for June 2013 is 0.9 x 106 square kilometers greater than June 2012, however Arctic
sea ice thicknesses and volumes continue to remain the lowest on record.
In contrast, SLP has been higher over the Kara sector, which may have contributed to the large current negative
anomalies in
sea ice concentration in that region of the Arctic.
Top row (a — c): Regressions of the leading detrended Z850 PC timeseries with
anomalies in continental Antarctic temperature from M10 (colors on Antarctic land),
sea ice concentration (colors over ocean; (note the
sea ice colorscale is reversed with respect to the temperature colorscale), and geopotential height (contours).
The strong poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport may be one reason why the West Antarctic and Peninsula climate appears to be more strongly coupled with regional
sea ice concentration and extent
anomalies than does the East Antarctic (e.g. Jacobs and Comiso 1997; Weatherly et al. 1991).
The statistical forecast submitted by Tivy for September
ice concentration anomalies in the Beaufort - Chukchi
Sea region has remained unchanged.