There was no discussion in the paper of ringed seal birth lairs, or
sea ice conditions at the time of the study, but several mentions about what might happen in the future to sea ice and potential consequences for polar bears.
September 2009 sea ice extent was driven by preexisting
sea ice conditions at the end of spring, as well as variable wind patterns over the course of summer.
In years such as 2008, initial
sea ice conditions at the end of spring may have more of an influence on a September arctic sea ice extent Outlook than a forecast of summer wind fields, which dominated the ice situation in 2007.
Not exact matches
The case of this one polar bear and the failure of her offspring to survive in the new environmental
conditions of the Arctic doesn't bode well for the future of the species, especially as Arctic
sea ice continues to retreat
at a record pace.
The team's next steps include looking more closely
at specific ocean swell events and
sea ice conditions during known
ice shelf collapses and large iceberg calving events.
If we compare the
ice thickness map of the previous winter with that of 2012, we can see that the current
ice conditions are similar to those of the spring of 2012 — in some places, the
ice is even thinner,» Dr Marcel Nicolaus,
sea ice physicist
at AWI, said today
at a press conference during the EGU General Assembly in Vienna.
Scientists
at the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic
sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when
sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic
sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice for the last 30 years.
At its height between 1960 and 1980, Polyarka was staffed by more than fifty working scientists, engineers, and technicians focused on measurements of surface weather, snow depth,
sea ice, and
conditions in the upper atmosphere.
At 3.42 million square kilometres, it may still sound large, but this small extent of Arctic
sea ice could have profound long - term consequences, and it follows a long trend of low
sea ice conditions.
Toward colder extremes, as the area of
sea ice grows, the planet approaches runaway snowball - Earth
conditions, and
at high temperatures it can approach a runaway greenhouse effect (8).
But before you read on, have a quick look
at this short time - lapse video of
sea ice and weather
conditions in the central Arctic Ocean from early July through August 8, recorded by one of the two autonomous cameras set on the
sea ice near the North Pole each spring by a research team from the University of Washington (the same folks I accompanied in 2003).
Now to contribute a single event to Global Warming, one has to look
at the weather
conditions, and if patterns are sighted which are tied to alteration of
sea ice decline (our new atmosphere set up), we can connect the dots here too.
The study starts with observations of eroding
ice sheets spreading, cooler freshwater
at both ends of the planet and geological hints of tempestuous
conditions toward the end of the Eemian, that last interval between
ice ages when global temperatures and
seas were higher than now.
You can experience 41 days of
conditions around the North Pole in 44 seconds, thanks to the web cams left behind by an international research team (funded by the National Science Foundation) that annually ventures northward to install and retrieve instruments on and under the drifting
sea ice at the top of the world.
People interested in this post might be interested in polarbearsinternational (dot) org which has collared bear tracking and compare their locations in the Beaufort
sea to the current
condition of the Arctic
sea ice such as at the National Snow and Ice data center, nsidc (dot) org or the University of Bremen ma
ice such as
at the National Snow and
Ice data center, nsidc (dot) org or the University of Bremen ma
Ice data center, nsidc (dot) org or the University of Bremen maps.
Indeed it is hard to take a look
at the latest results over
at Cryosphere Today and not conclude that whatever the local
conditions, overall Southern Hemisphere
sea ice is in a very healthy state:
For several years, Rhett Herman, a physics professor
at Radford University, has been leading students on an expedition each spring break to study the
condition of the
sea ice off the coast near Barrow, Alaska.
The animated
sea -
ice imagery above — from one of two autonomous cameras set on
ice near the North Pole each spring — gives a close - focus view of the slushy
conditions that develop on the shifting
ice when the summer sun is
at its peak.
Some other
sea ice scientists (Jennifer Francis
at Rutgers and Ignatius Rigor
at the University of Washington) told me they are not ready to call it a season, noting that atmospheric pressure and some other
conditions over the basin could lead to further shrinkage of
ice extent in the next week or so.
For example,
conditions at the poles affect how much heat is retained by the earth because of the reflective properties of
ice and snow, the world's ocean circulation depends on sinking in polar regions, and melting of the Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets could have drastic effects on
sea level.
While
sea ice loss in 2012 had some atmospheric
conditions supporting loss
at the beginning of summer, the loss in 2012 probably was the result of thin
sea ice initial
conditions.
Yet, Polar Bears International («Save Our
Sea Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
Sea Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local
conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «
sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
ice is
at a record low across the Arctic.»
The region's
sea ice extent — defined by NSIDC as the total area covered by
at least 15 percent of
ice — varies from year to year because of changeable weather
conditions.
At times of low solar irradiance the amounts of
sea ice in the Nordic Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this ar
sea ice in the Nordic
Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this ar
Sea increase, this
ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar
conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this area.
A map of
sea ice extent
at the climax of the Last Glacial Maximum (both perennial and seasonal
ice), prepared with the help of a colleague, makes it possible to discuss what genetic and fossil evidence can tell us about the probable effects of glacial
conditions on polar bears and ringed seals.
UPDATE:
Sea ice condition of Hudson Bay at 1 November 2016 below from the Canadian Ice Service (some slushy ice looks to be forming along the coast north of Churchill — this is how freeze - up start
ice condition of Hudson Bay
at 1 November 2016 below from the Canadian
Ice Service (some slushy ice looks to be forming along the coast north of Churchill — this is how freeze - up start
Ice Service (some slushy
ice looks to be forming along the coast north of Churchill — this is how freeze - up start
ice looks to be forming along the coast north of Churchill — this is how freeze - up starts).
«We are off to a great start collecting a timely and unique dataset to help better understand the potential influence of clouds on the Arctic climate as
sea ice conditions change,» said William Smith, ARISE principal investigator
at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.
Although July data indicated that the
sea ice might be on track for a slight recovery from 2007 (though still well below «normal» climatological
conditions), new
sea ice data and weather forecasts show that total
ice extent in early August declined
at about twice the rate of any other time this summer.
At the pan-arctic level, the two coupled
ice - ocean model ensemble simulations (Kauker, Zhang) show good agreement, in particular regarding
ice conditions in the East Siberian
Sea.
These authors postulated an extended Barents
Sea Ice Sheet, the western part of the huge Eurasian Ice Sheet51, 55, that had reached the shelf edge causing polynya - like open - water conditions (triggered by strong katabatic winds) with phytoplankton and sea ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope at site PS2138 -
Sea Ice Sheet, the western part of the huge Eurasian Ice Sheet51, 55, that had reached the shelf edge causing polynya - like open - water conditions (triggered by strong katabatic winds) with phytoplankton and sea ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope at site PS2138 -
Ice Sheet, the western part of the huge Eurasian
Ice Sheet51, 55, that had reached the shelf edge causing polynya - like open - water conditions (triggered by strong katabatic winds) with phytoplankton and sea ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope at site PS2138 -
Ice Sheet51, 55, that had reached the shelf edge causing polynya - like open - water
conditions (triggered by strong katabatic winds) with phytoplankton and
sea ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope at site PS2138 -
sea ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope at site PS2138 -
ice algae production, subglacial meltwater outflow and the deposition of suspended material on the slope
at site PS2138 - 2.
Whereas
at the three sites from the central Arctic Ocean an extended to perennial
sea ice cover was probably predominant, sea ice conditions were much more variable along the northern Barents Sea continental margin as reflected in the data of Core PS2138 - 2 (Fig. 2
sea ice cover was probably predominant,
sea ice conditions were much more variable along the northern Barents Sea continental margin as reflected in the data of Core PS2138 - 2 (Fig. 2
sea ice conditions were much more variable along the northern Barents
Sea continental margin as reflected in the data of Core PS2138 - 2 (Fig. 2
Sea continental margin as reflected in the data of Core PS2138 - 2 (Fig. 2d).
For more on the terrestrial foods topic, see my detailed discussion in this previous post, and this recent (March 30) ScienceNews report on yet another, largely anecdotal «polar bears resort to bird eggs because of declining
sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31
at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on
sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice conditions in the Barents
SeaSea).
While
sea ice extent
at the beginning of July and weather
conditions in June and July were largely conducive to a new
sea ice extent minimum, weather in August and September was unfavorable.
September 2008
sea ice extent was driven by preexisting
conditions at the end of spring, as well as variable wind patterns over the summer.
As noted last month, this range depends in part on the relative weight that the respondents give to «initial
conditions,» e.g., age and thickness of
sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 will be as supportive for
ice loss as the favorable winds were in 2007.
A key question to be addressed was: How important were initial
conditions of the
sea ice at the end of spring versus anomalous summer meteorological forcing in driving the second sequential major September
sea ice minimum?
Then things took a turn for the worse, and
sea ice was
at record or near - record low
conditions for most of the summer.
So, prompted by reports of the heaviest
sea ice conditions on the East Coast «in decades» and news that
ice on the Great Lakes is, for mid-April, the worst it's been since records began, I took a close look
at ice thickness charts for the Arctic.
Summer meteorological current
conditions and projections this summer (see Figures 9 - 11) do not favor extreme mid to late summer
sea ice loss in 2016, as occurred in 2007 and 2012, despite low
sea ice extents
at the beginning of summer.
Ice loss during the second half of August was in fact the slowest observed during the last decade, resulting in the observed, unexceptional September sea ice extent being recorded despite the extremely low ice conditions present at the start of the summ
Ice loss during the second half of August was in fact the slowest observed during the last decade, resulting in the observed, unexceptional September
sea ice extent being recorded despite the extremely low ice conditions present at the start of the summ
ice extent being recorded despite the extremely low
ice conditions present at the start of the summ
ice conditions present
at the start of the summer.
Warm
conditions with temperatures
at the 925 hPa level of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average graced the northernmost coasts of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland, but the thick
sea ice that is typical of this region is unlikely to melt out.
Because
sea ice conditions in the Antarctic are different from the Arctic, we would not expect identical effects
at the two poles.
Such weather patterns, which can feature relatively mild
conditions in the Arctic
at the same time dangerously cold
conditions exist in vast parts of the lower 48, may be tied to the rapid warming and loss of
sea ice in the Arctic due, in part, to manmade climate change.
It would have much greater impact
at the North Pole altering
conditions of the Arctic Basin including the
sea ice, the snow line, the tree line, the albedo, and ocean circulation, among other
conditions.
Using a model that tracked a range of habitat
conditions, including water temperature and depth from
sea ice, to predict which habitats would be most impacted by climate change, William Cheung, the study's lead author, and his colleagues found that around 50 species of commercial fishes living near or
at the poles will go extinct within the next 4 decades.
Under those
conditions, Earth had little
ice, and
sea level was
at least 60 metres higher than current levels.
Correction: August 29, 2000, Tuesday A front - page article on Aug. 19 and a brief report on Aug. 20 in The Week in Review about the sighting of open water
at the North Pole misstated the normal
conditions of the
sea ice there.
At the end of the first week of August, Howell et al. report that sea ice conditions in the Northwest Passage are very light with sea ice mostly present at the eastern and western ends of the Parry Channel Region (Figure 4
At the end of the first week of August, Howell et al. report that
sea ice conditions in the Northwest Passage are very light with
sea ice mostly present
at the eastern and western ends of the Parry Channel Region (Figure 4
at the eastern and western ends of the Parry Channel Region (Figure 4).
At the same time, substantial and early
ice retreat in the Kara
Sea (see contribution by Gerland et al., below) has resulted in favorable shipping
conditions along the Northern
Sea Route (NSR).
In August, warmer
conditions returned, which combined with a rather diffuse
ice cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi
seas, has led to a speed - up in the rate of
ice loss
at the beginning of August, particularly in the Chukchi
Sea.