Sentences with phrase «sea ice conditions based»

Information about future summer arctic sea ice conditions based on 2008 data is equivocal.

Information about future summer arctic sea ice conditions based on 2008 data is inconclusive.

Not exact matches

By mapping current conditions with the help of Inuit hunters as well as by compiling maps of the past based on oral histories and the memories of elders, the researchers hope to capture the Inuit's special understanding of sea ice.

This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.

However, severe sea ice conditions still exist and in consequence many locations are impossible for ship based operations.

Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to sea ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests regional differences in sea ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).

Rigor et al. (Polar Science Center, University of Washington); 5.4 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic This estimate is based on the prior winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions, and the spatial distribution of the sea ice of different ages as estimated from a Drift - age Model (DM), which combines buoy drift and retrievals of sea ice drift from satellites (Rigor and Wallace, 2004, updated).

A regression - based forecast for September ice extent around Svalbard (an area extending from 72 — 85N and 0 — 40E), which uses May sea surface temperatures, the March index of the Arctic Oscillation, and April ice conditions as predictors, yielded a mean ice extent in September 2010 of 255,788 square kilometers around Svalbard.

A prediction for the September ice area in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas based on persistence suggests a recovery to pre-2007 conditions.

Lukovich et al. (University of Manitoba); 4.0 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic Surface, stratospheric, and ice conditions in 2010 relative to 2007 atmospheric and ice conditions during June provide the basis for projection of September sea ice extent.

Whereas most proxy - based reconstructions point to an early - middle LIG climatic optimum with reduced summer sea ice concentrations between 126 and 116 ka, the results of our model simulations only support a pronounced reduction in summer sea ice concentration for the LIG - 125 and LIG - 130 runs (in both time slice as well as transient runs; Figs. 8 and 9), but also indicate that sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean even under climatic conditions significantly warmer than today (Fig. 4).

Based on this plot, a classification of sea ice conditions into permanent sea ice, extended sea ice, seasonal sea ice (ice edge), and ice - free is possible.

Finally, we have compared the Arctic sea ice conditions of the LIG and simulated future climate projections for 2100 and 2300, based on two different IPCC scenarios2, the RCP4.5 (583 ppm CO2eq) and the RCP6 (808 ppm CO2eq)(Fig. 8).

Lukovich et al, 4.3, n / a, Heuristic It is hypothesized that the 2012 fall sea ice extent will attain values comparable to those of 2011 based on a heuristic assessment of sea ice and surface atmospheric dynamics, with regional losses governed by local wind and ice conditions.

Based on these data, an extended but variable sea ice cover with closed sea ice to ice - edge conditions occurred during late MIS 6 (Fig. 3b, Supplementary Fig. 1).

Sometime before 2020 certainly, but based on the 5 year rebuilding time between 2007 and 2012, we might see a new lower low in Arctic sea ice around 2017, as the spiral continues down to an ice free condition this century.

For the LIG - 120 interval, we record an apparent mismatch between the LIG - 120 simulation (suggesting sea ice conditions similar to those of the PI conditions)(Figs. 4 and 8) and the proxy - based sea ice record (suggesting minimum sea ice concentrations similar to the early - mid-LIG (Fig. 7a).

The ensemble consists of seven members each of which uses a unique set of NCEP / NCAR atmospheric forcing fields from recent years, representing recent climate, such that ensemble member 1 uses 2005 NCEP / NCAR forcing, member 2 uses 2006 forcing..., and member 7 uses 2011 forcing... In addition, the recently available IceBridge and helicopter - based electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness quicklook data are assimilated into the initial 12 - category sea ice thickness distribution fields in order to improve the initial conditions for the predictions.

Next year, I expect sea ice free conditions in the Arctic based on heat transport via water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere, storm conditions driven by latent heat in the atmosphere, and a good deal of snow this fall that insulates sea ice and permafrost from the cold, thereby allowing them to remain warm and weak.

For more on the terrestrial foods topic, see my detailed discussion in this previous post, and this recent (March 30) ScienceNews report on yet another, largely anecdotal «polar bears resort to bird eggs because of declining sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Sesea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Sesea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Sesea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Sesea ice conditions in the Barents SeaSea).

The coupling of IP25 with phytoplankton biomarkers such as brassicasterol or dinosterol proves to be a viable approach to determine (spring / summer) sea ice conditions as is demonstrated by the good alignment of the PIP25 - based estimate of the recent sea ice coverage with satellite observations38.

Sea ice conditions, such as September extent, maps of sea ice probability and first ice - free day, or any other sea ice parameter based on early - season daSea ice conditions, such as September extent, maps of sea ice probability and first ice - free day, or any other sea ice parameter based on early - season dasea ice probability and first ice - free day, or any other sea ice parameter based on early - season dasea ice parameter based on early - season data.

One member's 2008 outlook (Kalaeschke) went from less sea ice to more sea ice compared to 2007; this was based on applying a different method with a stronger weighting for initial conditions.

It's now clear that Mitch Taylor was right to be skeptical of sea ice models based on pessimistic climate change assumptions; he was also right to be more optimistic than his PBSG colleagues about the ability of polar bears to adapt to changing sea ice conditions (Taylor and Dowsley 2008), since the bears have turned out to be more resilient than even he expected.

NRL - atm - ocn - ice, 4.8 (4.4 - 5.3), Modeling (fully coupled)(Same as June) The projected Arctic minimum sea ice extent from the Navy's global coupled atmosphere - ocean - ice modeling system based on May 2016 initial ice conditions is 4.8 km2.

As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicbased on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicBased Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Submissions of melt pond fraction, ice thickness, and any other sea ice parameter based on early - season data that could contribute to a status summary of pre-season conditions and help inform subsequent contributions to the regular SIO monthly report.

Any field - or ship - based updates on ice conditions in the different regions such as sea ice morphology (e.g., concentration, ice type, floe size, thickness, snow cover, melt pond characteristics, topography), meteorology (surface measurements) and oceanography (e.g., temperature, salinity, upper ocean temperature).

The second method uses a optimal filtering based statistical model, and the third estimate is based on regression models relating September sea ice extent to spring atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.

Lukovich et al. (University of Manitoba); 5.0 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic An update to the previous heuristic assessment of surface, stratospheric, and ice conditions in 2010 relative to 2007 atmospheric and ice conditions for July provide the basis for projection of September sea ice extent.