On 27 June 2008 a request was issued to the arctic research community requesting input for the June 2008 Outlook Report on arctic
sea ice conditions for September 2008, to update the May Outlook using June data.
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of sea ice area and global NCEP air temperature, sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average summer
sea ice conditions for the Arctic.
Not exact matches
One is changed environmental
conditions for a discrete subpopulation of the original population, such as when
ice ages cause dramatic changes in
sea levels, cutting species into subgroups.
The case of this one polar bear and the failure of her offspring to survive in the new environmental
conditions of the Arctic doesn't bode well
for the future of the species, especially as Arctic
sea ice continues to retreat at a record pace.
All the fish were in top
condition, which suggests that there was enough food under the
ice, making the
sea ice a true nursery ground
for polar cod.
Climate
conditions around Ardley Island have been generally favourable
for penguins over the last 7,000 years and the team had expected the local population to show minor fluctuations in response to changes in climate or
sea ice.
«Yet our biomarker data show acceptable living
conditions for phytoplankton and
sea ice algae, namely open waters and seasonal
ice cover — a wide difference to kilometre - thick
ice,» says Rüdiger Stein.
Scientists at the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic
sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when
sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic
sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice for the last 30 years.
Bacteria, however, have remained Earth's most successful form of life — found miles deep below as well as within and on surface rock, within and beneath the oceans and polar
ice, floating in the air, and within as well as on Homo sapiens sapiens; and some Arctic thermophiles apparently even have life - cycle hibernation periods of up to a 100 million years while waiting
for warmer
conditions underneath increasing layers of
sea sediments (Lewis Dartnell, New Scientist, September 20, 2010; and Hubert et al, 2010).
The implications of considering Arctic
sea -
ice - free
conditions for the transformation of the global energy system are severe.
Sea ice decline alters the pole pressure gradient, leads
for instance to a higher amplitude Jet Stream and more ridges which create more stucky — persistent
conditions.
I am saying that increased CO2 is responsible
for the melting the Arctic
sea ice which will be catatrophic, since the
sea ice acts as the air
conditioning unit
for the planet.
This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial
conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that
for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as
for Arctic
sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.
First is the identification of a runaway
condition in outflow glaciers of the West Antarctic
ice sheet that makes the IPCC prediction
for year - 2100
sea level rise clearly obsolete.
Hopefully, this bodes well
for sea ice survival this summer, but as you will likely see if you look in once in awhile, the surface
conditions change remarkably during the summer, and from the appearance you may appreciate the associated changes in the fraction of solar heating absorbed by the
ice.
It is also possible
for cold climates to increase chemical weathering in some ways, by lowering
sea level to expose more land to erosion (though I'd guess this can also increase oxydation of C in sediments) and by supplying more sediments via glacial erosion
for chemical weathering (of course, those sediments must make it to warmer
conditions to make the process effective — downhill and downstream, or perhaps via pulsed
ice ages -LRB-?)-RRB-.
For several years, Rhett Herman, a physics professor at Radford University, has been leading students on an expedition each spring break to study the
condition of the
sea ice off the coast near Barrow, Alaska.
Of course, what happens this summer is important, but I think the
sea ice is
conditioned for a colder, and more extensive
sea ice during the next couple of seasons.
Regarding
conditions for spring 2012, Figure 4 shows maps of
ice categories derived from
sea -
ice age
for the beginning of May 2012, with maps
for early May and mid-September 2011 included
for comparison.
Nevertheless, taking advantage of mild
sea ice conditions, the 68,000 - ton Crystal Serenity set sail from Anchorage, Alaska on August 16
for its 32 - day journey through the Northwest Passage via Amundsen's route.
The year 2007 was a «perfect storm» of atmospheric
conditions for sea ice loss during all of the summer (Zhang et al. 2008, and others).
Arctic
sea ice shrank to its lowest level in 38 years last month, setting a record low for the month of May and setting up conditions for what could become the smallest Arctic ice extent in history, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
ice shrank to its lowest level in 38 years last month, setting a record low
for the month of May and setting up
conditions for what could become the smallest Arctic
ice extent in history, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
ice extent in history, according to National Snow and
Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
Ice Data Center data released Tuesday.
If this thinning would have eliminated
ice from areas observed to have
sea ice, a minimum thickness of 20 cm was left in place
for the
ice initial
condition.
For example,
conditions at the poles affect how much heat is retained by the earth because of the reflective properties of
ice and snow, the world's ocean circulation depends on sinking in polar regions, and melting of the Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets could have drastic effects on
sea level.
Rapidly changing
conditions also have repercussions
for human populations whose income and culture depend on
sea ice.
However, severe
sea ice conditions still exist and in consequence many locations are impossible
for ship based operations.
On the other side of the Arctic, Russian martime operations using icebreakers on the Northern
Sea Route began in 1932 and give no evidence
for improving
ice conditions in this period; rather the opposite, as 1937 and 1940 were noted
for heavy
ice in the Laptev
Sea.
If they do so by simulating near - average
conditions most of the time, they are getting the right answer
for the wrong reason, and their predictions of future
sea ice decline should be discounted.
Although July data indicated that the
sea ice might be on track
for a slight recovery from 2007 (though still well below «normal» climatological
conditions), new
sea ice data and weather forecasts show that total
ice extent in early August declined at about twice the rate of any other time this summer.
Lukovich et al. (Centre
for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to
sea ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and
sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests regional differences in
sea ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of
sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).
A heuristic forecast
for ice conditions in the Lincoln
Sea and Nares Strait was submitted by Gudmandsen.
A regression - based forecast
for September
ice extent around Svalbard (an area extending from 72 — 85N and 0 — 40E), which uses May
sea surface temperatures, the March index of the Arctic Oscillation, and April
ice conditions as predictors, yielded a mean
ice extent in September 2010 of 255,788 square kilometers around Svalbard.
Regarding initial
conditions for Spring 2010, Figure 2 by Maslanik and others shows maps of
sea ice classes derived from
sea ice age
for April 2010 and 2009.
A prediction
for the September
ice area in the Beaufort and Chukchi
Seas based on persistence suggests a recovery to pre-2007
conditions.
Northward winds in the European sector of Arctic provided usual
conditions for ice melting in the Barents
Sea and lesser in the Kara
Sea.
Lukovich et al. (University of Manitoba); 4.0 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic Surface, stratospheric, and
ice conditions in 2010 relative to 2007 atmospheric and
ice conditions during June provide the basis
for projection of September
sea ice extent.
Whereas most proxy - based reconstructions point to an early - middle LIG climatic optimum with reduced summer
sea ice concentrations between 126 and 116 ka, the results of our model simulations only support a pronounced reduction in summer
sea ice concentration
for the LIG - 125 and LIG - 130 runs (in both time slice as well as transient runs; Figs. 8 and 9), but also indicate that
sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean even under climatic
conditions significantly warmer than today (Fig. 4).
During their work as part of the Norwegian - led research project Norwegian Young
Sea Ice Cruise (N - ICE2015), an expedition launched to observe Arctic sea ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the ice broke
Sea Ice Cruise (N - ICE2015), an expedition launched to observe Arctic sea ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the ice broke
Ice Cruise (N -
ICE2015), an expedition launched to observe Arctic sea ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the ice broke
ICE2015), an expedition launched to observe Arctic
sea ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the ice broke
sea ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the ice broke
ice conditions, they were accustomed to watching
for danger signs and moving quickly to salvage their gear and instruments when the
ice broke
ice broke up.
Whereas the simulations
for March and June are all quite similar, the September
sea ice concentration of the central Arctic Ocean is significantly lower under
conditions with a closed Bering Strait and half - flooded shelf
seas (Fig. 8, Supplementary Fig. 9).
IP25 vs. brassicasterol plot, indicative
for sea ice conditions.
These new
sea ice proxy records are needed (1) to fully prove the scenarios of a succession from an extended
ice shelf to polynya / open - water
conditions (cf., Fig. 6), (2) to reconstruct in more detail the changes in
sea ice cover
for early, middle and late LIG intervals characterized by very different external forcings and related internal feedback mechanisms, and (3) to allow a more fundamental proxy data / modeling comparison that results in model improvements and better reproduction of the LIG climatic evolution and prediction of future climatic scenarios20, 21,22,23, 64.
Finally, we have compared the Arctic
sea ice conditions of the LIG and simulated future climate projections
for 2100 and 2300, based on two different IPCC scenarios2, the RCP4.5 (583 ppm CO2eq) and the RCP6 (808 ppm CO2eq)(Fig. 8).
These cores were recovered from areas characterized by different
sea ice conditions today, ranging from perennial sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean to seasonal sea ice conditions along the Barents Sea continental margin (Fig. 1; see Methods for more detail
sea ice conditions today, ranging from perennial
sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean to seasonal sea ice conditions along the Barents Sea continental margin (Fig. 1; see Methods for more detail
sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean to seasonal
sea ice conditions along the Barents Sea continental margin (Fig. 1; see Methods for more detail
sea ice conditions along the Barents
Sea continental margin (Fig. 1; see Methods for more detail
Sea continental margin (Fig. 1; see Methods
for more details).
By considering also a phytoplankton biomarker indicative
for open - water primary production, these extremes can be easily separated as under a permanent
sea ice cover the phytoplankton biomarker is absent but reaches maximum concentrations under open - water
conditions (Fig. 3, Supplementary Fig. 1) 31, 38.
If climate models are able to reproduce past warm climatic
conditions (such as those of the LIG), including the extent of Arctic
sea ice cover, we will have additional confidence in their representation of Arctic processes and their projections
for the future20, 21,22,23.
They wrote that Dyck, Soon and their collaborators ignored data from the previous decade that showed that as the climate warmed, the
sea ice is melting earlier each spring, sending polar bears ashore
for longer periods of time in progressively poorer
condition.
For the LIG - 120 interval, we record an apparent mismatch between the LIG - 120 simulation (suggesting
sea ice conditions similar to those of the PI
conditions)(Figs. 4 and 8) and the proxy - based
sea ice record (suggesting minimum
sea ice concentrations similar to the early - mid-LIG (Fig. 7a).
Strong katabatic winds related to the
ice sheets (shown tentatively as stippled black arrows), were probably responsible for ice - free polynya - type conditions off the major ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice sheets (shown tentatively as stippled black arrows), were probably responsible
for ice - free polynya - type conditions off the major ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice - free polynya - type
conditions off the major
ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and
sea -
ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (
for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide
Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are available.
The ensemble consists of seven members each of which uses a unique set of NCEP / NCAR atmospheric forcing fields from recent years, representing recent climate, such that ensemble member 1 uses 2005 NCEP / NCAR forcing, member 2 uses 2006 forcing..., and member 7 uses 2011 forcing... In addition, the recently available IceBridge and helicopter - based electromagnetic (HEM)
ice thickness quicklook data are assimilated into the initial 12 - category
sea ice thickness distribution fields in order to improve the initial
conditions for the predictions.
Such an extended
ice sheet associated with strong katabatic winds should have caused polynya - like open - water
conditions in front of the
ice sheet (Fig. 5a), resulting in increased fluxes of phytoplankton,
ice algae and terrigenous matter as observed in the PS2757 - 8 record (Fig. 2c and Fig. 6, Scenario 2), i.e., a situation similar to that proposed
for the Barents
Sea continental margin (Fig. 5a) 57, 58.