April 1, 2009
Sea ice cover over the Arctic Ocean typically reaches its maximum geographic extent and thickness just as spring begins in the Northern Hemisphere.
In other words, there has been virtually no change in
sea ice cover over the last 12 years, despite the fact that atmospheric CO2 has now surpassed 410 parts per million, a considerable and steady increase over levels in 2006 which were about 380 ppm (see below, from the Scripps Oceanographic Laboratory, included in the Washington Post story 3 May 2018):
«Reduced
sea ice cover over a longer period of time over the summer could mean improved foraging for belugas,» said Hauser, who is also a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Not exact matches
Indeed, Arctic change in the last two decades has been profound — not just dwindling
sea ice, but also noticeably increased precipitation, and thus snow
cover,
over Eurasia.
Although the
ice cover has increased
over the past few years, the Arctic's
sea ice is now much thinner than it was just a few years ago, making it more vulnerable to future warming.
«This highly unusual state of the atmosphere has been linked to record low
sea ice cover during summer
over the Arctic Ocean.
«It may even be possible to predict
sea ice cover a year in advance with high - quality observations of
sea ice thickness and snow
cover over the whole Arctic,» said Cecilia Bitz, co-author and professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington.
The dramatic loss of Arctic
sea ice cover observed
over the satellite era is expected to continue throughout the 21st century.
Researchers also tracked
sea ice cover in the Arctic
over these two periods and found that the
ice declined substantially from the first to the second period.
In particular, they suspect that they may see a thicker snow
cover on the Eurasian
sea ice, but they will not be able to confirm it until IceBridge flies
over.
Whilst it's natural to start with air temperatures, a more thorough examination should be as inclusive as possible; snow
cover,
ice melt, air temperatures
over land and
sea, even the
sea temperatures themselves.
Furthermore, we must understand how changes in
sea ice cover affect the feeding ecology of humpback whales and their competitors in the short - term and the dynamics of krill populations
over the longer term, particularly given the increasing pressure from commercial krill harvests [36].
The findings suggest that while the response of Antarctic summer
sea ice to human - caused climate change may be less dramatic than in the Arctic,
sea ice cover may have declined by as much as 14 %
over the last 100 years.
a) Satellite image showing fast disintegration of
sea ice over a polar continental shelf; b) Zoobenthos on an Antarctic continental shelf; c) Examples of
sea mosses (specimens on the left are from an open - water location and hence have had more plankton to feed on); and d) Dead bryozoan and other benthic skeletons
covering the seabed, most likely to be buried, sequestering their blue carbon in the seabed.
In Antarctica, even though as a whole it's slightly gaining in
sea ice cover, most of these gains are
over unproductive, deep - lying seabeds, whereas the newly
ice - free areas are mostly located
over highly productive continental shelves in the West Antarctic.
This study is the latest in a growing body of research that suggests dwindling
sea ice and snow
cover in the polar regions may be altering the weather
over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere.
«As the Arctic
sea -
ice cover continues to disappear and the snow
cover melts ever earlier
over vast regions of Eurasia and North America, it is expected that large - scale circulation patterns throughout the northern hemisphere will become increasingly influenced by Arctic Amplification.»
The number of polar lows and the frequency of fog
over the Barents
sea, however are believed to diminish as the
sea ice cover retreats.
It seems that the near - zero replenishment of the MY
ice cover after the summers of 2005 and 2007, an imbalance in the cycle of replenishment and
ice export, has played a significant role in the loss of Arctic
sea ice volume
over the ICESat record.
There are subtle effects such as the planet losing more heat from the open
sea than from
ice -
covered region (some of this heat is absorbed by the atmosphere, but climates
over ice -
covered regions are of more continental winter character: dry and cold).
Maue discussed how «two camps» of researchers claim to have increased predictability of such weather events
over periods of a month or more by using clues either in the Arctic, related to the extent of
sea ice and snow
cover, or in the temperature of surface waters across the Pacific Ocean.
«Conversely, above normal
ice cover was associated with La Nina conditions which are accompanied by the Aleutian low moving westward of normal allowing higher pressure and colder conditions to move
over the Bering
Sea.
The influence of anthropogenic forcing has also been detected in various physical systems
over the last 50 years, including increases in global oceanic heat content, increases in
sea level, shrinking of alpine glaciers, reductions in Arctic
sea ice extent, and reductions in spring snow
cover (Hegerl et al., 2007).
The only problem with all the predictions about the level of the World Ocean rising is that, the World Ocean is refusing to rise up in support of the predictions, the other problem is that
ice is frozen fresh water and frozen fresh water only
covers about 5 % of this planet above
sea level and frozen water under the level of the World Ocean does not count as the World Ocean will fall a small amount if that
ice melts, so if the
ice there is enough to get the World Ocean to rise and significant amount then it must be piled up very high, I cubic kilometer of water as
ice, should it melt, would make 1000 square kilometers rise by one meter, so when you use this simple math then somewhere on the planet, above the level of the
sea, then there must be
over 500,000 cubic kilometers of
ice, piled up and just waiting to melt, strange that no one can find that amount of
ice, all these morons who talk about the rise of the World Ocean in tens of meters, this includes you Peter Garrett or Mr. 7 Meters, the
ice does not exist to allow this amount of rise in the World Ocean, it is just not there.
The 2009 State of the Climate Report of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate change is real because of rising surface air temperatures since 1880
over land and the ocean, ocean acidification,
sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity, ocean heat content increasing,
sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow
cover decreasing, and so many other lines of evidence.
In simulations with no ponds or aerosols in
sea ice, the Arctic
ice is
over a meter thicker and retains more summer
ice cover.
Although the Arctic Ocean is typically mostly
covered by
ice, both the thickness and extent of summer
sea ice in the Arctic have shown a dramatic decline
over the past thirty years, satellite measurements have found.
[4] The area of summer
sea ice lost since the 1980s would
cover over 40 percent of the contiguous United States.
Evidence suggests that the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was driven in part by warm air (air warmed by the dramatic seasonal loss of Arctic
sea ice) 9 as well as by changes in snow
cover over Eurasia driven by climate change.10 This event is part of an emerging trend in which a warming climate may paradoxically bring colder, snowier winters to northern Europe and the eastern United States.11
And remember, the satellite data are one small part of a vast amount of data that overwhelmingly show our planet is warming up: retreating glaciers, huge amounts of
ice melting at both poles, the «death spiral» of arctic
ice every year at the summer minimum
over time, earlier annual starts of warm weather and later starts of cold weather, warming oceans, rising
sea levels, ocean acidification, more extreme weather, changing weather patterns overall, earlier snow melts, and lower snow
cover in the spring...
Furthermore we recommend that effort should be put into developing an inter-annually varying snow depth and density
over sea ice product for the
ice -
covered oceans.
According to AMEG, here's how climate change in the Arctic has changed weather patterns:
Over the past three decades, snow
cover has been reduced by 17 - 18 % per decade and
sea ice is declining fast because of human - induced global warming.
Actual visual observations of
sea ice recently made from aircraft during buoy deployment operations
over the Arctic by the Naval Oceanographic Office and National Guard confirm that the
ice cover is noticeably thinner and that it is more fractured than in previous years.
Summer of 2008 shows a large region of less
sea ice than normal over the Beaufort Sea compared to 2005 which had less ice cover than normal in the Eastern Siberian Sea and Laptev S
sea ice than normal
over the Beaufort
Sea compared to 2005 which had less ice cover than normal in the Eastern Siberian Sea and Laptev S
Sea compared to 2005 which had less
ice cover than normal in the Eastern Siberian
Sea and Laptev S
Sea and Laptev
SeaSea.
(4) Last Interglacial (MIS 5e / Eemian) with a more or less closed
sea ice cover situation
over Core PS2757 - 8, preventing phytoplankton and
sea ice algae productivity, and probably
ice - free conditions towards the East Siberian shelf.
Heat from Arctic amplification
over normal conditions in these regions is much smaller than on the other side of the pack because the
ice covered these
seas longer this year; The heat added due to Arctic amplification probably less than 6... and with most of that in the Beaufort, and not in the Chukchi and E. Siberian.
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic
sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow
cover have continued to decrease in extent.
«The perennial (September) Arctic
sea ice cover exhibits large interannual variability, with changes of
over a million square kilometers from one year to the next.
«Totten Glacier's catchment is
covered by nearly 2 1/2 miles of
ice, filling a California - sized sub-
ice basin that reaches depths of
over one mile below
sea level.
A new NASA / British Antarctic Survey study examines why Antarctic
sea ice cover has increased under the effects of climate change
over the past two decades.
«
Over the course of the years, my work has been applied (by) the Navy for operating vessels in the Arctic
sea -
ice cover,» she said.
See also the
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies,
Ice and Snow
Cover, 1 year animation, from Environment Canada, for snow depth records
over the last 365 days that include Hudson Bay.
«Arctic
Ice in «Death Spiral» with additional heating due to global warming, the extent of sea ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the summers since the 198
Ice in «Death Spiral» with additional heating due to global warming, the extent of
sea ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the summers since the 198
ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller
over the summers since the 1980s.
Variability in summer
ice ‐
cover in the Chukchi
Sea, as in the Barents
Sea, has been correlated with the values of the AO and the NAO, and hence with the frequency of cyclonic depressions
over the Arctic Ocean.
To a large extent the probability forecasts in Figure 11 resemble the surface air temperature anomaly of the last two months in Figure 7 in the high latitudes, illustrating the persistence of weak climate anomalies
over the
sea ice and ocean
covered regions throughout the summer months.
These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature increase
over recent decades, snow and
ice cover decrease and
sea level rise.
This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic
sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow
cover, changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic
sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic
sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature / precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events
over northern continents.
From 1978 to 1996, the average
ice cover around Antarctica showed almost no trend (a slight increase 1.3 % per decade), however
ice decreased by 2.9 % per decade on average
over the arctic
seas (1).
While Goddard's anecdotes are interesting there's plenty of more concrete compiled data
covering the last 100 years, which suggest
sea ice levels today are lowest for
over 100 years:
The Arctic coastal regions of the Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas generally are
covered with shore - fast
ice for about eight months, but
over the past two decades,
sea ice extent and thickness have diminished.