This «new» model is a slight variation on an old idea about
sea ice cycles and heat buildup in the ocean beneath the ice.
Not exact matches
And that heat appears to be
cycling back into the atmosphere each fall, when the amount of sunlight dips and
sea ice re-forms.
This week, researchers revealed that the ancient
cycles of
ice also left their mark on the
sea floor, thousands of meters below the ocean surface.
But climate change has brought milder winters, warmer
sea temperatures and bigger storms, which create a vicious
cycle that promises less
sea ice and more wind and open water to generate
ice - crushing waves.
The
ice floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding
seas shrinks in a seasonal
cycle from mid-March until mid-September.
«A sort of grand problem in Earth science is to understand the water
cycle — evaporation from the ocean, clouds, rain, the formation of
ice, the runoff from the land back into the
sea,» said Eric Lindstrom, Aquarius program scientist at NASA.
In general, Antarctic
sea ice is much more variable than the Arctic, and scientists are still grappling with how climate change and various natural climate
cycles might be interacting to affect
sea ice levels there.
By the second half of this century, rising air temperatures above the Weddell
Sea could set off a self - amplifying meltwater feedback
cycle under the Filchner - Ronne
Ice Shelf, ultimately causing the second - largest ice shelf in the Antarctic to shrink dramatical
Ice Shelf, ultimately causing the second - largest
ice shelf in the Antarctic to shrink dramatical
ice shelf in the Antarctic to shrink dramatically.
The study marks the first time that human influence on the climate has been demonstrated in the water
cycle, and outside the bounds of typical physical responses such as warming deep ocean and
sea surface temperatures or diminishing
sea ice and snow cover extent.
Many large mammals became extinct when these
cycles and the
ice age ended and spreading peatlands and rising
sea levels restricted animals» ability to move between continents.
Those changes may include the loss of Arctic summer
sea ice, the collapse of
ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and changes in the jet stream and the pattern of El Niño and La Niña weather
cycles.
When the jet stream does that, it transports more heat and moisture up into the Arctic, which heats the Arctic more, which make the jet stream even wavier — another vicious
cycle related to disappearance of
sea ice.
Since so much of the
ice sheet is grounded underwater, rising
sea levels may have the effect of lifting the sheets, allowing more - and increasingly warmer - water underneath it, leading to further bottom melting, more
ice shelf disintegration, accelerated glacial flow, and further
sea level rise, and so on and on, another vicious
cycle.
The intensified monsoons created a positive feedback
cycle, promoting more global cooling, more
sea ice and even stronger precipitation, culminating in the spread of huge glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere.»
Bacteria, however, have remained Earth's most successful form of life — found miles deep below as well as within and on surface rock, within and beneath the oceans and polar
ice, floating in the air, and within as well as on Homo sapiens sapiens; and some Arctic thermophiles apparently even have life -
cycle hibernation periods of up to a 100 million years while waiting for warmer conditions underneath increasing layers of
sea sediments (Lewis Dartnell, New Scientist, September 20, 2010; and Hubert et al, 2010).
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow,
sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow» feedbacks have kicked in (
ice sheets, vegetation, carbon
cycle etc.).
The extent of Arctic
sea ice reached the maximum area of its seasonal
cycle on March 7th coming in at 14.42 million km2.
Huybrechts, P., 2002:
Sea - level changes at the LGM from
ice - dynamics reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets during the glacial
cycles.
This new group of scientists find some weather disturbances were not from the El Nino, La Nina
cycle, but apparently regulated by conditions in the Arctic — things like low
sea ice, low or shorter season snow cover, and even «sudden stratospheric warming».
While this process is a natural part of the life
cycle of an
ice shelf, there is concern that when it occurs, it could usher in a period of irrevocable retreat and possibly lead to the
ice shelf's demise and further contributions to global
sea level rise.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions in snow and
ice, in global mean
sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow,
sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow» feedbacks have kicked in (
ice sheets, vegetation, carbon
cycle etc.).
This is the reason that the water on the very bottom of the ocean originates around the Antarctic as the result of the yearly
sea -
ice cycle.
Do you have any comment on the paper by Lassen and Thejll of the Danish Meteorological Institute from observations between Arctic
sea ice index and solar
cycle length?
A period for which the SCL index is NOT «well defined», and an area many times larger than the Greenland
Sea, behaving in a fashion for which we have no recent precedent according to literature — see, for instance the review article from Polyak et al, 2010 — «could» be natural since a possible relationship between sea ice and solar cycle length has been demonstrated, sort
Sea, behaving in a fashion for which we have no recent precedent according to literature — see, for instance the review article from Polyak et al, 2010 — «could» be natural since a possible relationship between
sea ice and solar cycle length has been demonstrated, sort
sea ice and solar
cycle length has been demonstrated, sort of.
For Fred Singer, a climatologist at the University of Virginia and another co-author, the current warming «trend is simply part of a natural
cycle of climate warming and cooling that has been seen in
ice cores, deep
sea sediments and stalagmites... and published in hundreds of papers in peer reviewed journals.»
Polar amplication is of global concern due to the potential effects of future warming on
ice sheet stability and, therefore, global
sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon
cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium response to external forcings.
Around 2002 the
sea ice dynamics shows some interesting changes, with what appear to be orthogonal shock waves across the
ice pumping
cycles.
The problem is that Dan H attaches value («best we can») to a correlation between
ice berg sightings off Iceland and the solar
cycle as CAUSATION for Arctic
sea ice loss.
, then at the seasonal
cycle (what does the
sea ice advance and retreat look like?
Volume gives us an idea on how much freshwater is stored in Arctic
sea ice — an important element in the global - Arctic hydrological
cycle, i.e., the
cycle of distillation due to freezing, and subsequent export, and melt.
For example, the following paper http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/milankovitchqsr2004.pdf finds that deep -
sea and
ice core records are formally indistinguishable from stochastic data even if the data are artificially tuned to Milankovitch
cycles.
That a connection between solar
cycle length and
sea ice extent * could exist * — which is about what I take them to have shown — is not absurd, and might be worth examining.
It seems that the near - zero replenishment of the MY
ice cover after the summers of 2005 and 2007, an imbalance in the
cycle of replenishment and
ice export, has played a significant role in the loss of Arctic
sea ice volume over the ICESat record.
As you showed in your 2006 paper, the GIS sill overflows settle to the deepest layers of the North Atlantic, but the deepest water is derived from the THC around the Antarctic associated with the yearly
cycle of
sea -
ice.
However if we have a similar profile of volume loss as in the preceding two years then random variability looks very unlikely and I'll be veering to the following viewpoint — that something new and radical has happened in the seasonal
cycle of
sea -
ice loss, a new factor that in principle could have the power to make a virtually
sea ice free state in September plausible this decade.
Last summer's record loss of
ice was due to a combination of natural
cycle and global warming factors: «more greenhouse gases, an unusual wind pattern, and warming of the ocean water in regions with reduced
sea ice.»
Instead, to constrain the Charney sensitivity from the
ice age
cycle you need to specifically extract out those long term changes (in
ice sheets, vegetation,
sea level etc.) and then estimate the total radiative forcing including these changes as forcing, not responses.
Without any land, the effects of seasonal
cycles are reduced and it is also harder to build up a thick
ice sheet (the basal lubrication of
sea ice being large).
What applies in the case of the «fast» feedback from water vapor or
sea ice applies in the case of the «slow» feedback from the carbon
cycle and
ice sheets.
ScienceDaily (Oct. 3, 2008)-- Arctic
sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second - lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on Sept. 14, according to researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center.&raq
ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second - lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual
cycle of melt and growth on Sept. 14, according to researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and
Ice Data Center.&raq
Ice Data Center.»
A polar
sea without
ice opens a new stage in the glacial
cycle.
The goal, the scientists say, is to compare independent methods of gauging
ice trends from factors including
sea temperature,
ice thickness and
cycles of atmospheric pressure and winds around the Arctic.
Even prior to any large feedback involving the
ice sheets or carbon
cycle, the actual rise in
sea - level continues to be at the top edge of the envelope of the IPCC's predictions.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions in snow and
ice, in global mean
sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (see Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1).
The end of the first half of the Holocene — between about 5 and 4 ka — was punctuated by rapid events at various latitudes, such as an abrupt increase in NH
sea ice cover (Jennings et al., 2001); a decrease in Greenland deuterium excess, reflecting a change in the hydrological
cycle (Masson - Delmotte et al., 2005b); abrupt cooling events in European climate (Seppa and Birks, 2001; Lauritzen, 2003); widespread North American drought for centuries (Booth et al., 2005); and changes in South American climate (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004).
The length of the expedition coupled with the planned route will give researchers access to the full
cycle of
sea ice through the year.
We do not know much about earlier
cycles of warming / cooling and
sea ice retreat / expansion.
Likely cause of the recent changes in Arctic
sea ice This is a normal
cycle that has repeated, over and over again.
We need this low
sea ice extent period to build the
ice for the next phase of the
cycle.