MASIE products include an ASCII text file of
sea ice extent values in square km for each Arctic region, time series plots, and image files that visually show where the sea ice is.
MASIE products include an ASCII text file of
sea ice extent values in square km over the entire Northern Hemisphere with 16 separate Arctic regions identified, time series plots of the 16 regions, and image files that visually show where the sea ice is.
The twentieth century sustained the lowest maximum
sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200.
By month's end, daily
sea ice extent values were record low.
Daily
sea ice extent values were record low throughout the month.
Not exact matches
The scientists summarize: «The low Arctic
sea ice extent ranks amongst the low
values of the last decade.
The exact date and
value of the minimum
sea ice extent in 2017 can only be determined in the coming weeks, after a significant increase.
Low maximum
sea ice extent also occurred over periods of some decades (e.g., mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries, early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries), with absolute
values in some cases as low as the twentieth century ones, but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. . .
You complain that there was no mention of Arctic
Sea Ice Extent in the Guardian article reporting exceptional warm temperatures up in the high Arctic yet I contrasted that report of exceptional warmth with JAXA Arctic SIE
values of recent days.
I have often used quadratic fits of annual minimum Arctic
sea ice extent to forecast the future
value.
Just to return to one of the suggested topics, Arctic
sea ice extent appears to have passed its minimum for this year with a
value higher than has recently been the case.
Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of
sea ice thickness, draft,
extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern
sea ice models, though the parameter
values chosen differ according to the model forcing used.
If you plot the average Arctic
Sea Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and minimum
values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context of annual variability, or examine for trends.
... June
sea ice extents in 2008 and 2007 are essentially identical, and near the lowest
values for June ever recorded by satellite for the Arctic....»
WattsUpWithThat.com, 4.9, Heuristic Website devoted to climate and weather polled its readers for the best estimate of 2012
sea ice extent minimum by choosing bracketed
values.
With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June
Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea extent median value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure
Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic
sea extent median value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure
sea extent median
value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
Our model predicts that September 2015 Arctic
sea ice extent will be 2.11 million km2 below the 1982 to 2011 observed average
extent, but will not reach
values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past two years, the median
values for June outlooks for
sea ice extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed
values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011.
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past three years, the median
values for June outlooks for
sea ice extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed
values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011, but the June Outlook
value of 4.4 msk in 2012 was well above the extreme observed September
value of 3.6 msk.
Provided that ocean and atmospheric conditions favor rapid melting in June and July, which we feel are still likely, it is therefore hypothesized that the 2013 fall
sea ice extent will achieve
values comparable to those of 2012, with regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions and dynamics.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (June Report) for September 2013
sea ice extent (
values are rounded to the tenths).
Klazes (Public), 3.6 (95 % confidence interval of + / - 0.9), Statistical September
extent is predicted using an estimated minimum
value of the PIOMAS arctic
sea ice volume and a simple model for volume -
extent relationship.
However, despite the fact that their own data show that
sea ice extent stayed at that
value for three days, NSIDC has chosen the last day of that 3 - day period rather than the first to represent the 2015 minimum.
Remember: You do not need any more than 15 % concentration of
sea ice in a «grid cell» to be counted in the
extent value.
But, in general, the
sea ice extent should attain a higher
value than last year.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook (June Report)
values for September 2010
sea ice extent.
With 19 responses for the pan-arctic (and 7 for the regional outlook), including several new contributors, the June
Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic sea extent median value of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure
Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic
sea extent median value of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure
sea extent median
value of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
Red horizontal arrow indicates interval with increased Atlantic Water (AW) inflow, characterized by minimum PIP25
values (minimum
sea ice extent)(from ref.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (August Report) for September 2012
sea ice extent.
Lukovich et al, 4.3, n / a, Heuristic It is hypothesized that the 2012 fall
sea ice extent will attain
values comparable to those of 2011 based on a heuristic assessment of
sea ice and surface atmospheric dynamics, with regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions.
The consensus is for continued low
values of September 2012
sea ice extent.
Again, we are comparing these Outlook
values to the September average
sea ice extent as provided by NSIDC.
Using this approach the mean (50th percentile) of the forecast distribution suggests a
value for
sea ice extent of 4.67 Million square Kilometers, with a 5 - 95th percentile range (3.64, 5.76) and «likely range» (33 - 66 %) of (4.38, 4.97).
The
sea ice monthly extent for September 2012 was 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011 value (Figure
ice monthly
extent for September 2012 was 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011 value (Figure
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011
value (Figure 1).
While the winter / spring 2008
sea -
ice extent has rebounded from the 2007 negative mega-anomaly, the age - class distribution at present is negatively skewed compared to satellite climatology and even the
values for 2007, as is
ice concentration within the
ice - ocean margin that defines
extent.
The projections of the
Sea Ice Outlook groups for the September 2008 mean minimum ice extent, based on May data, had a median value of 4.2 million square kilomete
Ice Outlook groups for the September 2008 mean minimum
ice extent, based on May data, had a median value of 4.2 million square kilomete
ice extent, based on May data, had a median
value of 4.2 million square kilometers.
The projections of the
Sea Ice Outlook groups for the September 2009 mean minimum ice extent had a median value of 4.7 million square kilometers based on May data and 4.6 million square kilometers based on June data with a range of 4.2 - 5.2 million square kilometers (Figure
Ice Outlook groups for the September 2009 mean minimum
ice extent had a median value of 4.7 million square kilometers based on May data and 4.6 million square kilometers based on June data with a range of 4.2 - 5.2 million square kilometers (Figure
ice extent had a median
value of 4.7 million square kilometers based on May data and 4.6 million square kilometers based on June data with a range of 4.2 - 5.2 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
With 19 total responses, 14 provided a
value for the arctic
sea ice minimum
extent for September 2008; 6 provided regional outlooks.
Sea ice extent data, however, has become skewed due to the strong downward trend in
ice extent, with a wider spread of
values and more
values falling at the low end of the range.
NSIDC is transitioning the
sea ice extent time series graphs to show interquartile and interdecile ranges, with the median
extent value, in place of standard deviations and the average
values.
Figure 1: Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (August Report) for September 2014
sea ice extent.
Our model predicts that September 2014 Arctic
sea ice extent will be 1.45 million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 observed average
extent, but will not reach
values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
Thus, when
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger
extent than from simply averaging daily
extent values.
Within the Outlook project, there may be differences in how each group obtains their area (e.g., model grid cells of varying resolution,
sea ice charts, and satellite observations); each of these could produce a different
value for
ice extent.
However, the ensemble mean September 2008
sea ice conditions, using the range of historical summer weather, gives a
value of
sea ice extent that is slightly more than 2007.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (July Report) for September 2013 mean
sea ice extent (
values are rounded to the tenths).
It should be recalled that we are comparing these Outlook
values to the September average
sea ice extent as provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSID
ice extent as provided by the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSID
Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
While the projected 2013
extent remains below the 1979 - 2007 observed average, the model predicts that September Arctic
sea -
ice extent will recover to a
value comparable to that reached in 2006.
Then we ran NSIDC's September
sea ice extent Google Earth file (downloaded from here), clicked play to let the video run through once (you need to do this to let Google Earth load the images), and then we scrolled the time bar back to 1979 (the date at the top says «1/1979», but the NSIDC file only shows September
values, so it actually means 9/1979).
We received 21 Pan-Arctic responses for the September 2013 Arctic mean
sea ice extent with a median
value of 4.0 million square kilometers and the quartile
values are 3.8 and 4.6 million square kilometers (Figure 1).