Sentences with phrase «sea ice loss rates»

For three particular mismatches — sea ice loss rates being much too low in CMIP3, tropical MSU - TMT rising too fast in CMIP5, or the ensemble mean global mean temperatures diverging from HadCRUT4 — it is likely that there are multiple sources of these mismatches across all three categories described above.

The sea ice loss rate seems to be very sensitive to model resolution and has improved in CMIP5 — implicating aspects of the model structure as the main source of the problem.

Not exact matches

They then used the satellite record of Arctic sea ice extent to calculate the rates of sea ice loss and then projected those rates into the future, to estimate how much more the sea ice cover may shrink in approximately three polar bear generations, or 35 years.

«Until the rate and likely duration of sea ice losses as well as the ensuing ecosystem responses are better understood, closing the U.S. Arctic to commercial fishing is a prudent measure.»

Many researchers think this is unrealistic and that the rate of ice loss will accelerate, which means that sea level could rise much faster than predicted.

The IPCC's latest prediction for sea level rise — 0.2 to 0.6 metres by 2100 — takes this ice loss into account but it is based on the assumption that the rate of ice loss will remain constant.

Complementary analyses of the surface mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate of sea level rise to the observed warming.

Lead author Dr Malcolm McMillan from the University of Leeds said: «We find that ice losses continue to be most pronounced along the fast - flowing ice streams of the Amundsen Sea sector, with thinning rates of between 4 and 8 metres per year near to the grounding lines of the Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith Glaciers.»

Since 1979, winter sea ice extent has decreased 3.2 percent per decade (the loss is much more pronounced in summer at a rate of 13.4 percent per decade).

Other researchers look at raised beaches [32] and palaeo lakes to record previous rates of isostatic uplift and rates of sea level rise [33, 34]; this can help constrain previous ice volumes and rates of ice loss.

Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical ice sheet model to predicting the future of PIG, their model suggested ongoing loss of ice mass from PIG, with a maximum rate of global sea level rise of 2.7 cm per century.

This kind of significant change could increase the rate of warming already in progress, affect further sea ice loss in the Arctic and alter shipping access to the Arctic Ocean.

Rates of sea - level rise calculated from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived from summing loss of ice mass, thermal expansion and changes in land storage.

Our modelled values are consistent with current rates of Antarctic ice loss and sea - level rise, and imply that accelerated mass loss from marine - based portions of Antarctic ice sheets may ensue when an increase in global mean air temperature of only 1.4 - 2.0 deg.

Our experiments show a clear threshold in the relationship between the rate of sea - level rise, and the rate of (sea - level contributing) ice - sheet mass loss.

Non-linear rates of Antarctic ice loss under high rates of sea - level rise Golledge, Nick; Arnold, Richard; Levy, Richard; Naish, Tim

From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.

Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 — 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

The authors of the study — Ricarda Winkelmann and Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Andy Ridgwell of the University of Bristol — find that the loss of the entire Antarctic ice sheet would take millenniums, but up to 100 feet of sea level rise could result within 1,000 years, with the rate of the rise beginning to increase a century or two from now.

8) Accelerated mass loss in Greenland and / or Antarctica, perhaps with another huge ice shelf breaking off, but in any case coupled with another measurable rise in the rate of sea level rise, 9) The Fifth Assessment Report (2012 - 2013) really spelling out what we face with no punches pulled.

IIRC, the limit on mass loss was attributed to the narrowness of passes in the mountains, but if the ice loss is behind the mountains as the ocean reaches beyond them, and mixes salt into the system with tides, then only the flushing of salt and icebergs via meltwater would limit the rate of melt in the (brand new) Greenland Sea.

However, although the Arctic is still not as warm as it was during the Eemian interglacial 125,000 years ago [e.g., Andersen et al., 2004], the present rate of sea ice loss will likely push the system out of this natural envelope within a century.

The contribution from glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature to mass loss (equivalent to a rate of sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963 to 2003.

The reasonable agreement in recent years between the observed rate of sea level rise and the sum of thermal expansion and loss of land ice suggests an upper limit for the magnitude of change in land - based water storage, which is relatively poorly known.

Individual responses continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss, composites of several approaches, estimates based on various non sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the heuristic category).

However, despite near normal rates of ice loss during the month, June 2015 was a relatively warm month (Figure 7) with 925 hPa air temperatures up to 2.5 C higher than average near the North Pole and East Siberian Sea, with even warmer air temperatures in the Kara Sea (up to 4.5 C).

Individual responses continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the «heuristic» category).

As the rate of ice loss has accelerated, its contribution to global sea level rise has increased from a little more than half of the total increase from 1993 - 2008 to 75 - 80 percent of the total increase between 2003 - 2007.

If both Greenland and West Antarctica shed the entirety of their ice burden, global sea levels would rise by 12 to 14 m. Although these icecaps would not disintegrate within a century, the loss of even a third of their mass — quite plausible if the rate of polar ice loss continues to double each decade — would force up the oceans by at least 4 m, with disastrous socioeconomic and environmental consequences.

It may be worth considering that if climate models are underplaying the actual amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and if Arctic sea ice loss is a positive feedback on global temperature, then, the observed rate of Arctic sea ice loss ought to be applying a warming pressure over and above that from greenhouse gas emissions.

I think the best predictor for sea level rise are measurements of the mass loss rates and the acceleration of those mass loss rates for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps.

Polyak et al. (2010) looked at Arctic sea ice changes throughout geologic history and noted that the current rate of loss appears to be more rapid than natural variability can account for in the historical record.

A new study published in the journal Science revealed that CO2 emissions are accelerating the rate of sea ice loss in the arctic.

The resulting enhanced loss of summer and winter sea ice resulted in feedbacks, associated with Arctic Amplification, which has raised Arctic air temperatures at a rate twice the global average.

«It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971 — 2010 for all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios due to increases in ocean warming and loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Sea ice minimum levels are falling at the rate of 14 % a decade in the Arctic, and polar bears have been feeling the loss.

Considered in isolation, the reduction in ocean heat transport implies a possible moderation in the rate of Arctic sea ice loss in the coming decade.

The July 2010 Sea Ice Outlook Report is based on a synthesis of 17 individual pan-Arctic estimates using a wide range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with observations and rates of ice loss, composites of several approachIce Outlook Report is based on a synthesis of 17 individual pan-Arctic estimates using a wide range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with observations and rates of ice loss, composites of several approachice loss, composites of several approaches.

In addition, the study showed that ice loss rates have not only sped up at the grounding lines, but also more than 100 miles inland, compromising the entire ice sheet that the glacier helps hold back from the sea.

Influences from the rate of melting, of thin ice, and loss of multi-year sea ice in 2012 were underestimated, even by objective methods.

Further, it only took one month of persistent wind conditions to slow the rate of sea ice loss, resulting in an increase in 2009 sea ice extent compared to 2007 and 2008.

«The current rate of sea ice loss, and the reduced thickness of large areas of the ice remaining, suggests that we may see yet another record minimum in summer sea ice extent this year.»

Loss rate for May and June 2013 sea ice extent was slower than May and June 2010 and 2011 and slower than June in 2012 (Figure 3).

Warming is contributing to the loss of protective sea ice along Alaska's northwestern coast, leading to increased rates of coastal erosion.

Individual responses continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (i.e., the «heuristic» category).

Direct measurements of the AMOC are only available for the past ten years or so, but Yeager et al. present a combination of observation - and model - based evidence that suggests that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC, which is closely related to AMOC) transitioned from a weak state in the 1970s to a strong state in the 1990s and that this strengthening contributed to the accelerated rate of winter sea ice loss that was observed in the late 1990s.

Instead, natural variations in the climate system and other external forcing factors (such as volcanic eruptions) will likely cause the rate of Arctic sea ice change to vary considerably from decade to decade, and perhaps even temporarily switch from negative (sea ice loss) to positive (sea ice growth).

There is a thermostat in action there, the more heat in the Arctic seas the faster rate it is lost to space, until the ice recovery insulates again and modifies the heat loss.

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea - level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain.

As discussed here, relative to the years of greater ice loss in Greenland, the rate of sea level rise should have dropped by an additional 1.3 mm / year in 2014.